Decisions, Results and all the Rest
Do or do not? Left or right? Pizza or burger? Decisions are everywhere.
In a recent CSPO class, I took inspiration from Annie Duke and asked my students for the best decisions they ever took.
One of them raised their hand: "Marrying my wife." "Why?" "I've been happy ever since."
We took this opportunity to differentiate between quality decisions and quality results: Being happy is a result – but even the best and most deserved of results don't need to stem from the best decisions. This difference – decision quality v. result quality – appears counterintuitive at first, and certainly is not part of our everyday thinking.
Nonetheless, it has been with me for some time, and I would like to share some thoughts. Thanks to Peter R??ler and Sabrina Spiegel for inspiring conversations that helped me to clarify my terminology.
Aspects
Looking at decision making, we can differentiate:
Quality
We can look at each of these aspects and its quality in separation:
Looking at processes, there is a natural tension between integration and speed stemming from the number of voices involved in gathering perspectives and making the decision. Our estimation of process quality is influenced by personal preferences and the individual desire for participation. There are more objective factors as well, most obviously how well the process chosen suits the urgency and impact of the decision at hand. This, in turn, is a function of the volatility of the situation at large.
Example process: My future wife and I consider the matter and independently draw our conclusions. Whoever finishes the considerations with a positive result proposes to the other, understanding that they might take time to finish the process and answer the proposal.
The quality of the decision is independent of this: A quality decision takes into account as much of the available information as possible and takes into account what unknowables might need to be accounted for after the point of commitment. In other words, a quality decision has a high probability of actually achieving the target state we are going for.
Example decision: We both weigh the available facts re: our relationship and marriage in general. We consult with family and friends unmarried, married and formerly married to learn more about relationships. Finally, one of us proposes and the other accepts.
The target state, once again, is worth looking at in separation. Do we expect the decision to change the world for the better, to bring us closer to our subjective ideal? More formally: Does it maximize our utility given the circumstances? While we can look at decision quality objectively, target states are highly subjective, as our ideals differ widely.
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Even quality decisions can intend target states that do not change the world as I see it for the better – but they can still be quality decisions. Needless to say, these target states will rarely stem from my own decisions.
Example target state: We spend the rest of our lives together, enjoying every single day.
Finally, we have the result, the world after everyone made their moves. Are we satisfied? Maybe the result took us closer to our ideal than we originally intended. Or maybe we are further from it than we expected. Neither changes the original decision's quality – as we took into account all available information, it still is what it was, good or bad.
Example result: Since we are about the same age, we live together for all but one year at the very end. 57 percent of days have been enjoyable.
Crux
Research shows the same as our initial example: This final difference is counterintuitive at first and not part of our everyday thinking.
At the same time, it is a powerful tool, paving the way to reflection. It enables us to see our mistakes for what they are: misjudgments of available information, separate from external influence. Unforced errors, as opposed to developments and information that were unavailable or even unknowable when time came to decide.
Let's do something about it
Reflecting on my own thoughts and looking back at interactions with friends, clients, and colleagues, I notice a distinct lack of clarity when critiquing decisions.
Separating the four aspects when discussing decisions will lead our systems and organizations to more clarity, more quality decisions, and more constructive interactions.
What was your best decision?
Further reading
If you care about this topic, you might be interested in the work of Annie Duke ("Thinking in Bets"), as well as Marshall Sutcliffe and his partners on the "Limited Resources" podcast.
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