Decision making in times of AI

Despite of all capabilities of AI, we still live in a world of complexity and entropy. AI won’t make this world easier. But it will help us to deal with it and make the best out of it if we get it right. Leaders and managers have to beware of that while navigating the liminal space between data addiction and pure human intuition. Some humbleness in doing so might be a good advice.

One example: New multi-agent artificial intelligence (MAAI) models make it possible to predict the behaviour of epidemics, entire urban transport systems, and countries - and at some point perhaps the whole world.

This may sound hyperbolic, but first successes have recently been achieved in this field. Ebola broke out in West Africa in 2014. The US Defence Threat Reduction Agency used computer models to calculate the potential spread of the epidemic. Over a period of seven months, computer scientists built an agent-based model that was fed with real data - population data, economic data, data on social interactions, travel routes, even cultural rites, such as funeral customs, were included. The model calculated a spread of the epidemic would affect 1.4 million people. Emergency interventions and medical measures were also run through the computer simulation and were used in the fight against Ebola. In the end, 28,000 people were affected.

Now, think of COVID-19: We, actually, could have known.

In 2012, a risk analysis study from the German government presented a comprehensive documentation of a possible “pandemic caused by a virus Modi-SARS”. The Robert Koch Institute, the country’s disease control and prevention organization, together with other federal authorities developed a scenario of six million Germans falling ill at the peak of an imagined crisis. US tech entrepreneur Bill Gates warned in a 2015 TED Talk that a virus epidemic is the greatest threat to mankind. And as recently as 2019, U.S. government agencies ran a full-scale simulation code-named Crimson Contagion bearing a frightening resemblance to the coronavirus crisis.

 1.    Always remember the rule of biology: complex life can only become more complex by selection. We won’t be saved by simplification. Only those who embrace complexity as a constant of life will thrive and take the right decisions.

2.    We might want to remember a quote by the former United States Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, whom I don’t quote regularly. Rumsfeld stated: “Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.”

3.    It, indeed, is. That’s what everyone has to keep in mind. There are unknown unknowns, even in our data-driven and extensively analyzed world. And they will still bring serendipity to our lives, to the economy and our societies. Benevolent and malevolent serendipity.

Being vigilant, somehow prepared for the unknown, willing and able to react swiftly and consistently is what counts in this world.

I’d like to call that adaptability. It might be the most important skill these days.