Decision Making In Space: How the Apollo 13 Team Made The Right Call

Types and the Application to Safety

People make decisions every minute of every day, but how much are we aware of how we make our decisions; what information are we basing those decisions on; and what kind of factors are impacting on how we make those decisions?

Definition of Decision Making

“Decision-making is the process of reaching a judgement, choosing an option, or a course of action, to meet the needs of a given situation” (Flin Et Al 2008)

Types of Decision Making

There are many models and much research that has been done in the area of decision making theory, however for the purposes of this article we are looking at the four main types of Decision Making taken from Klein (1999) and Flin et al. (2008). These decision-making types are ultimately impacted, chosen, and used by the decision maker due to factors such as time pressure and the criticality of the decision that needs to be made. You can see in the figure below, the four types of decision making – Recognition Primed Decision Making (RPD); Rule Based Decision Making (RBD); Choice Decision Making; Creative Decision Making – which are chosen by the decision maker based on the time that they have to make the decision and thus these decisions involve decreasing and increasing levels of cognitive effort and stress depending on the decision type chosen for the given situation.

Recognition Primed Decision Making (RPD)

Recognition Primed Decision Making (RPD) is a decision-making type that is very much reliant on previous information that the decision maker has stored within their brain’s memory storeroom from previous or indeed similar experiences to the given situation which they have encountered. When this course of decision making is occurring there is very little cognitive effort being exerted or used and much of what is happening is in the decision makers unconscious brain where they are taking patterns or sequences of events and matching them to the current event in which they are encountering, thus allowing them to make a very quick decision. RPD is both helped and hindered by what information the decision maker has stored in their memory from similar situations, obviously if there is not much experience of this type of situation, the decision maker is relying on very little knowledge to make the decision.

This decision-making type is very important to understand as it is a decision type we have to adopt when unexpected events happen and we require to act instantaneously – ie in the event of an unexpected loss of containment, explosion or leak at a plant. In this scenario organisations have an essential responsibility for ensuring operators are trained in emergency drills, have the right competency/knowledge/skill for their role, that training is provided for technical aspects of the job as well as emergency response, and also importantly, that leaders communicate the importance of understanding Major Accident Hazards with their staff so that they understand all risks and hazards. This is so when events do happen, they have knowledge and a level of experience in order to draw on and make quick, effective and safe recognition primed decisions in that given situation.

Rule Based Decision Making (RBD)

Rule Based Decision Making (RBD) is similar to RPD in that there is still a limited amount of time available for the decision maker to make their decision and they are still reliant on identifying information from the given scenario they are presented with. However, the difference here is that they do have slightly more time and thus more able to look and reference appropriate materials such as procedures, policies, checklists, and job aids that they can use to enable them to make the correct decision.

To ensure this type of decision making is effective and usable for employees in the organisation procedures, policies, job aids and job information should be available, in place, up to date and importantly understandable. Having these job reference documents allows operators to quickly know where to go, what to follow/do and take the correct action in the situation with which they are faced.

Choice Decision Making

Choice Decision Making is used when there is more time available to the decision maker and thus allowing them to use more cognitive thought and effort when making the decision. Here the decision maker gathers information for the situation in which they face from a number of sources – ie memory recall, documents such as procedures/rules/policies and job aids, and any other information sources at their disposal such as input from team members and colleagues. They then put cognitive thought and effort into evaluating the course of action/decision they could take and way-up the best choice before making their decision.

For this type of decision making, all of the essential considerations the organisations need to make and put in place for RPD and RBD decisions are relevant and required in order to provide their employees with all of the information possible in order for them to deliberate and come to a safe and appropriate/effective decision. Once again, the importance of ensuring staff are provided with the necessary training, skills, knowledge and confidence in their field of expertise is essential here. Without this, they will lack the required level of confidence and competence in making the correct choice when making a decision.

Creative Decision Making

Creative Decision Making is when there is time available and typically a solution is required that is novel or unique – for example this could be when something completely unforeseen has occurred. The decision maker can use information and input from multiple sources such as previous decisions from similar situations, rules and procedures, input from team members and colleagues, but unlike choice (where the decision maker is then using the information to make a choice decision on what to do) the creative decision maker is coming up with a solution/course of action that is unique/bespoke to the situation in which they are faced.

In addition to the recommendations and considerations discussed in the previous decision-making types described, key to this decision making type is an understanding and trust that the leaders of the organisation provide and place in their employees to make decisions when the need arises. Also an effective reporting system where employees can raise issues/incidents/concerns to leaders and get timely and effective feedback will help build this trust, especially when feedback from leaders is delivered in the right way and does not place blame on the individual employee. Without trust and importantly, a just and fair culture existing, employees will likely hesitate in making these types of decisions when faced with a situation unknown/never experienced to them and will try to defer to others or hesitate when making the decision (in case the repercussions of such decisions are negatively dealt with by leadership (again, blame)).?

Apollo 13 – Decision Making

These four types of decision making can be best visualised and evidenced through the movie Apollo 13 movie and in particular 3 scenes.

The Oxygen Tank Explosion

Watch Scene here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=220aG1RX-w0

They unconsciously match patterns of what is happening on board the aircraft to what they could recall from previous training

When the initial explosion happens on board the Apollo 13 space craft you immediately see the crew act instinctively by calling on memory recall of what they had been trained and taught during their astronaut training and experience.

They unconsciously match patterns of what is happening on board the aircraft to what they could recall from previous training and situations in order to make the best decisions they could in that scenario.

While this is also happening, and time is of the essence, immediately after the explosion the crew are not only making RPD decisions but also using emergency procedure checklists and procedures as well as listening to input from the control room to make rule-based decisions in their attempt to control and understand the explosion.?

To Orbit or Not To Orbit (The Moon)

Watch Scene here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tS9aZhB9cs

They are thus using these sources of information to then deliberate feasible choices and make the correct/most appropriate decision.

Once the crew and NASA control room staff had been able to control and diagnose the explosion on board the Apollo 13 aircraft the teams now need to establish how to get the spacecraft, and its crew, back to earth quickly and safely. In order to do this they need to work out the best course of action to take. Compared to the previous explosion scene they have slightly more time available to them to start using more cognitive and deliberate thought. Now you see the control room staff of NASA engineers getting round a blackboard and openly discuss the two clear options available to them – to either try to directly revert back to earth using the aircrafts remaining propulsion, or, to orbit the moon and use that propulsion to send them back to earth – bearing in mind the distance, depleting oxygen and resources on board. They are thus using these sources of information to then deliberate feasible choices and make the correct/most appropriate decision.

Engineering Solution

Watch Scene here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cYzkyXp0jg

They thus had to use all available sources of information to them to collectively ideate and come up with a creative, novel and bespoke solution

As the Apollo 13 crew are making their journey back to earth the NASA engineers realise that the Lunar Module (part of the space craft they were making their return journey to earth in), did not have the capacity to deal with the amount of carbon dioxide produced by the three astronauts. They thus then had come up with a novel and creative solution using the available materials onboard the Lunar module to deal with the carbon dioxide – a solution they were not trained or prepared for. They thus had to use all available sources of information to them to collectively ideate and come up with a creative, novel and bespoke solution which could be replicated by the crew up in space.

Final Thoughts and 3 Key Takeaways

Decision making is complex and situational. However, it is clear that there are many things organisations can consider and put in place to assist their people in making timely, effective and safe decisions in any given situation. To round some of these key recommendations up a summary is found here;

Training, Skills and Competency: Ensure staff are in the correct positions for their skillset and knowledge, that they have sufficient training in order to do their job and that any skills/knowledge gaps are identified, and support provided. Continually review, ensure and manage competency of staff.?

Leadership Trust, Communication and Accountability: Leaders should communicate the importance of understanding the risks and hazards involved in the job, ensuring there is a clear and effective reporting system in place for staff to raise faults/incidents/concerns and ensure feedback is appropriately provided, and ensure leaders are consistent in what they say and how they act when employees share bad news or make decisions.

Policies, Procedures, Checklists and Job Aids: Ensure all documentation to enable employees to undertake work is clear, available, and importantly understandable/usable to the operator. Ensure there is frequent communication on these procedures and that understanding of these documents is checked and assured – via conversation (as part of toolbox talks or pre-job briefs), training or assessment.

DEKRA specialises in taking the latest research from psychology and neuroscience and practically applying this to organisational challenges, issues and performance improvement opportunities. For more information on our training courses on topics such as decision making as well our Brain Centric Hazards and Making Decisions approach, visit our site to access white papers and more information: https://www.dekra-uk.co.uk/en/psychological-and-cognitive-consultancy/.