Decision Making
Recently, I have been reading statistics and found an interesting approach to a problem. I was left wondering how much it would impact the real-world decision-making process.
Monty hall problem: You have three doors before you, one of the doors hold the gift. You choose one door and later on your friend comes in and opens one of the remaining closed doors (the one without gift), there by providing new information. Mathematical calculations aside, the solution to the problem come along like, if you stay with the original choice the probability of success is 1/3 and if you switch the door the probability of success is 2/3.
It is all well and good if we have to take decisions in a hypothetical game. What if this were to happen in real world? In an increasingly ever-changing world, we have to make decisions with partial information. Once we made that decision, you get more information that makes you aware switching the decision will improve your odds of success. What will you do? What factors will you consider? What happens to your reputation (we humans like consistency in behavior rite)? I’ve personally found these kinds of decisions challenging.
I’d love to hear your thoughts on it.
#data #datadriven #decisionmaking #strategy #behaviour #statistics #montyhall