Decision Desk HQ Unveils 2022 Forecast Model

First Predictions Show

GOP Heavily Favored To Win Majority

Senate Control A Toss Up

July 20, 2022 —?Decision Desk HQ, the leading provider of election results and related data in the United States, announced today announce the release of their 2022 forecast model. You can see the full model?here .?

What The Model Says

As the primary season winds down and the mid-term election heats up, Decision Desk HQ presents its 2022 Election Forecast Model. As in previous years, our model takes into account over 100 variables to predict the probability of the winner for each Senate and House seat.

?In our first model run of the year our forecast says control of the Senate is a toss-up with the Democrats having a slight 54%-46% advantage of maintaining control of the chamber. Our mean seat projection is continuation of 50 seats for each party with Vice President Kamala Harris providing the Democrats with crucial tie breaking vote.

The Republican party’s chances are significantly better in the House where our model currently gives them an 88% chance of winning a majority in November. The mean outcome from our simulations is 235 Republicans and 200 Democrats.

In 2020 ?our congressional model correctly predicted the outcome of 30 of 33 (91%) US Senate seats and 415 of 435 House seats (95%). On the presidential level our model was the closest to accurately predicting Joe Biden’s electoral vote count.

?Our model was?featured? in the Harvard Data Science Review.

In 2018, the DDHQ forecast model predicted the composition of the Senate within one seat and the composition of the House within two seats.

?Why Another Model?

Different people will engage with our model, and those of our colleagues, in different ways. We can’t say we know what all of those ways will be or that they will be considered good by all. We do know based on our own experience with providing election results and as engaged members of society, new ideas, information, and opportunities to access data will lead down paths we can’t imagine. That’s the story of human advancement. Technology has enabled collaborations in ways never before possible. We hope our contribution to this field plays some small role as a building block for something useful and of value that we can’t even imagine today.?

?So with that hope, and a sense of responsibility to be as thorough and transparent as possible, we present the 2022 Decision Desk HQ Election Forecasting Model.

Want To Know More?

If you're interested in learning more about the Decision Desk HQ Forecasting Model or our election results, please contact us at [email protected]. We are happy to work with any media outlets or organizations looking to better understand the US election system and use election related data of any kind.

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About Decision Desk HQ

Founded on a commitment of “accurate, fast and first”, Decision Desk HQ is a US and international election night results reporting, data science and editorial service.

In 2020, Decision Desk HQ was the first election race results and call service to declare Joe Biden the winner of the US Presidential Election and that Democrats had won a majority of seats in the US House and Senate. Of the 16 key races in November of 2020,?Decision Desk HQ called ?14 of them first.

In 2021, Decision Desk HQ has been?first to call ?16 of the most important 18 races first.

Decision Desk HQ provides a wide variety of election night results and election data to media outlets, political organizations, and academics.

To learn more about Decision Desk HQ election results and data services visit www.DDHQ.io.

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