Decision

This is the second ‘article’ outlining thoughts on my personal journey through life transitions and ‘pivots’. I want to thank all who read, liked and commented – online and off – as this has given me a lot of encouragement to continue to put down my thoughts and observations. To those of you who have studied, examined and looked at this professionally for years I apologize for my naivety, but as I say it’s a personal journey. 

I know the expectation of those who read the first article may have been that I would look to fill out my inventory or give examples of what could be in the inventory - but don’t worry that is on its way. It’s both a historic and, a developing, live story – plus for me a learning experience. 

I want to sidetrack a little and focus on how I believe we make decisions and begin to look at the important factors (internal and external) in determining both how we may react, or if we react too late. It is good to define ourselves, but we also have to be able to define the environment we are in and the one we want to go to. We also have to bear in mind – the environment and the external is constantly changing, we cannot step off and ask for it to wait, we are all on the same ultimate journey to the same destination, so the importance is both enjoying and making the best possible out of this journey. 

I would define decisions as Proactive or Reactive or Neglecting.  Simply put: 

Proactive Decisions: are those that do not need to be made, there is a status quo that can be followed. This is not just about not making a decision, but, making one ‘outside the expected’.

Reactive Decisions: are those that a directive has to be given, we may not be able to predict the outcome, but the answer is not unexpected. 

Neglecting Decisions: where we deliberately decide not to grasp the nettle and make a decision not to make a decision and ignore the choice or chance. It is not always a bad thing. 

In my framework we have a Hierarchy of Decisions:

Life Changingdecisions where the results totally change the direction of our lives and are extremely disruptive. These are not always proactive decisions. It could be as simple as taking an assignment in another country or losing a job. Everyday we probably consciously or sub-consciously make ‘neglecting decisions’ by not applying for a job presented to us etc.  It’s the proactive decision to jump into uncertainty which is the equivalent of the frog jumping out of the boiling water.

Life Evolving decisions where the results move us on up the road to our next goal or milestone. Whilst these would generally be expected to be reactive decisions a lot will be proactive decisions. For example, whether to do an extra course in collage or work. 

Life Living decisions which is what we do to live our life and do our job. These will generally be reactive or neglecting decisions.

To better explain where I am coming from, my own philosophy ties in with chaos theory where the flapping of a butterfly’s wings can have an influence very far away. Thus, each decision or non-decision can have many unintended consequences. That should not stop us from making a decision, as in this constantly moving world a non-decision is also a decision. A good friend of mine, who was ex-special forces, pointed out to me that in training, recruits need to understand that “every second of freeze can pin you or get you. Time is not your friend and changes everything. Professionals move and engage.” My interpretation of that is that for Evolving and Living decisions it is better to be in control by making decisions than being passive and letting things happening to you. That is not to say that there is not a place for pause and reflection before making a decision, but that by definition is different than just waiting.

In evaluating past decisions, you can only truly evaluate the decision you made and its consequences.  You cannot evaluate an alternate reality of not having made that decision. The same is true for the consequences of not making a decision or taking that different road. 

We make decisions based on our Drivers interaction with Internal factors (our understanding of our Inventory and status Capital) and External factors related to how we understand the environment we are in and the environment we are heading to. The most important phrase here is our understanding. We have to note our understanding may not be correct. This refers to both internal and external factors. Having near perfect information, even though this being impossible, does not necessary give us the correct solution as life has randomness and uncertainty. Not everything is down to rational choice or behavior. 

I will go back to my personal story. Two of my Proactive Life Changing decisions which have played out – that is those decisions that have put me on a different path from that I was on. In making these decisions the level of stress and analysis I undertook was phenomenal. I discussed with many people and ultimately made a decision, against the advice of my Circle (I will define this in a later article). Hindsight is 20/20. 21 and 14 years later respectively, I now know a lot more about the potential risks and rewards I was taking. If I knew then what I knew now would I have made any different decision? Let me caveat that both decisions were the best decisions I have ever made.

For the first decision – should I go to business school and leave my current career and safety of my job. I will discuss later in this series what my personal inventory was etc. but just looking at the external environment the decision should have been a no brainer. If I knew what doing my MBA would offer me versus what staying in my current job then, at least in relation to career and external environment was a no stress decision. 

The second of my Proactive Life Changing decisions was in hindsight a fantastic one on the basis of how it worked out. However, it was one that I took without fully understanding the risks I was taking and the environment into which I was about to step. If I knew the risks I was taking and was honest with regard my appetite for risk balanced against my desire for success, then I am not sure I would have been so comfortable with the decision. I do not for a second regret the decision I made.

In Ray Dalio’s book Principles he says: “There are always risks out there that can hurt you badly, even in the seemingly safest bets, so it’s always best to assume you’re missing something.’ I agree and the point I am making is that a decision is made without a complete or correct understanding of the environment. In my case extra knowledge may have eased the stress of making or changed the actual decision. 

This leads me to ask the questions:

·      How do we build a framework to understand our external environment now and in the future? 

·      How can we build a personal decision-making process, that can consider these internal and external factors?

·      How can we recognize the type of decision we are making and does that mean a different evaluation process?

·      How can we build speed into making these decisions so that we are not overwhelmed by the passage of time? 

I am going to build off these points, for those of you who stay with me on this journey, over the next few weeks. Maybe together we can find the answers. Though I may use this platform to also talk about topics that I may be a little more qualified to talk on.