The Decision Bias Checklist

In the latest edition of HOW PREDICTABLE, we rekindle our love affair with the process manager's greatest tool, the checklist. We will go through what are likely the 5 largest pre-dispositions and heuristics to make sure you are aware of their impact on your DECISION and how your results may be influenced by them. Only when you pass this quick audit is your decision ready to share.

1) The INSIDE VIEW

__ Did the group apply any OUTSIDE VIEW to the decision during its deliberations? Was there an attempt to find data that was distinct from your own?

• This will help you avoid any myopic decisions and apply comparative rather than absolute judgement
• It also brings a diverse set of opinions and thoughts on how the issue may be alternatively resolved.

2) The PREJUDGMENT PLAYERS

__ Does anyone in your group stand to benefit more from one decision over another? Are their views being considered too highly? Did anyone start down a path BEFORE the decision was made?

• Some team members may have their identity and plans tied to one method over another and may be influencing this.
• Is there a risk of escalating commitment to a losing viewpoint?

3) THE PREMATURE CLOSURE

__ Did everyone on your team who might have had a differing opinion get a chance to express theirs? Did the first answer that was presented become the favorite too quickly? Was any relevant data or opinions that may have confounded the conclusion willfully ignored?

• Evidence suggested that early ideas have more success than later ones, so be careful of the order you heard suggestions
• Simply going around the table looking for nods may not be sufficient. Probe into those who have different views by asking follow-up questions and seeking clarity.

4) The INFORMATION PROCESS

__ Did the immediacy of this problem force a faster decision than hoped? Does our conclusion rely heavily on anecdotes or analogies, or hard data? Was regression used in the analysis and forecasts of predicted results?

• We often tell stories with data to produce understanding, but often as the cost of the nuances of the data.
• If we have a personal connection to this, either as being chastised or a family member connected to this, that may be added emotion to your view.

5) DECISION ALIGNMENT

__ Does this conclusion align with the goals and strategy of the organization? Are you team members being overly cautious or aggressive in their treatment? Are there current trends or risks that may derail your plan of execution?

• Your company has a long-term strategy that may be driving your actions. You have to be certain that this matches their vision.
• Is there confidence intervals and outside views to check that you are on the best path.

It is a long an arduous process to come up with a business decision. It never hurts to take a few moments after the fact to see that no biases have crept into that brilliant work.

Happy Forecasting!