Deciphering the DJ Basin: A machine learning-driven analysis and comparison with the Permian

Dear Subscriber,

In this week's newsletter, we're excited to share the presentation on "Deciphering the DJ Basin" from the SPE Denver event. If you couldn't attend, the presentation is now available for download here.

Building on our previous newsletter's theme, we've got two must-read posts by our VP of Product Management, Ted Cross: "Gas Production Trends Across Basins" and "Gulf of Mexico: America's Offshore Powerhouse You Might Be Overlooking"

We are also sharing the answers to a poll we conducted on the growing Gas-Oil Ratio (GOR) trend in the Bakken.

And, if you also missed our Tech Talk at the Oil Information Library of Ft. Worth, don't worry! Now you can watch it on our website.

[SPE Denver Presentation] Deciphering the DJ Basin: A machine learning-driven analysis and comparison with the Permian

Missed the SPE Denver General Meeting? No worries – we've got you covered! The presentation is now available for download. Access it: https://novilabs.com/resources/spe-austin-2023-deciphering-the-dj-basin/

This presentation offers a comprehensive analysis of the unconventional Niobrara play in the DJ Basin, employing advanced machine learning models. Delving into production trends, activity levels, and the key drivers of production, we aim to provide a nuanced understanding of the intricate interplay between completions design, lateral lengths, subsurface conditions, and well spacing.

Gas Production Trends Across Basins

A trend worth watching: while oil production has declined or holding steady in most US shale basins since January 2020, gas production has been holding steady or even increasing.

Take the Williston basin as an example: gas production there has remained virtually unchanged, while oil production has dropped 25%. The same is true for the DJ and Eagle Ford basins, with oil production down 20-25% but gas production pretty flat.

Even in the Permian, the largest driver of US oil production growth, gas production has increased by over 30% since January 2020.

What's causing this trend? It varies depending on the shale play. In the Permian, for example, the wells are getting older, which tends to mean more gas. In the Eagle Ford, operators have been drilling more gas-prone areas due to favorable economics. And in the Bakken, it appears that the wells are becoming more gassy, potentially due to depleted reservoir pressure.

This is a trend worth watching as oil plays become increasingly important to gas supply and pricing. Since January 2020, the Permian alone has added a staggering 5 BCF/d, compared to 2-3 BCF/d in Appalachia.

[Poll] The gas-to-oil ratio (GOR) in the Bakken has been increasing in recent years

The gas-to-oil ratio (GOR) in the Bakken has been going up lately. Why do you think this is happening?

According to 75% of our LinkedIn followers, it's tied to decreasing reservoir pressure.

What's your take? Do you agree, or do you think there's another factor causing this trend? Share your thoughts in the comments on the LinkedIn post.

Gulf of Mexico: America's Offshore Powerhouse You Might Be Overlooking

Don't forget about the Gulf of Mexico! At ~1.7 million barrels a day of production, it would rank right around 12th-highest producing country in the world, alongside Norway, Kazakhstan, Mexico, and Nigeria.

The deepwater offers extremely productive, low-decline wells, though cost and complexity is orders of magnitude higher than the onshore. In part because of the low decline, production has been holding pretty steady over the last 5 years, even with only about 350 new wells added.

Putting its production in the context of other US basins, the GoM would rank number three behind the Delaware and Midland, coming in ahead of the Williston, Eagle Ford, and Alaska's North Slope.

The "offshore US Gulf of Mexico", the onshore Eagle Ford play, the Haynesville play, the prolific Mexican Sureste Basin, and even the legendary Spindletop and East Texas Oil Field all technically belong to the same broader Gulf of Mexico Basin. Usually, when you hear an industry reference to the Gulf of Mexico or the GoM we use that as shorthand for the "offshore US Gulf of Mexico."

But it all belongs to the same broader basin formed by the rifting of the Yucatan Block away from North America! It's truly one of the most important hydrocarbon basins in the world.

[Tech Talk Recording] AI and Machine Learning Basics in Oil and Gas

If you missed our session in the Oil Information Library of Ft. Worth, don't worry!The full recording is now live on our website.

In this presentation, Ted Cross breaks down the real-world applications of machine learning in oil and gas in the Midland Basin. Ted Cross discussed the practical use of machine learning in onshore oil and gas development. The session covered key concepts, common pitfalls, and shared real-world examples from the Midland Basin.

Ready to see what’s under the hood and how Novi Labs can help you get valuable insights?

Book your personalized demo with our team: https://novilabs.com/request-for-demo/