December Equity Research Insights
This month features analyst callouts on: TGT, LULU, COO, DIS, MSFT, SONY, NTDOY, RBRK, ETSY and CALM
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Target (TGT): Focusing on Target’s promotional strategies, NielsenIQ data has demonstrated an overall decline in offerings given though Gift Cards during Thanksgiving week. The total offered value is down 39.0% due to the company’s shift in giving out lower-value Gift Cards ($5-15).
Target sends out Gift Cards to Target Circle members when members purchase selected products, for instance, “get a $5 Target Gift Card with 4 beauty & personal care items”. NielsenIQ data demonstrated a continuous decline in high-value (≥$20) Gift Cards being offered each year. In 2024 on Thanksgiving week, it is shown that the low-value Gift Cards ($5-15) are now taking up more than 90% of their Gift Card offerings, a 30.3% increase compared to 2021.
Lululemon (LULU): NielsenIQ e-receipt data indicates a mixed performance for Lululemon during this year’s Cyber Period. Normalized sales increased just 0.5% while normalized volume declined by 3% YoY. Both Black Friday sales and volume decreased by 6% and 5% respectively, while they increased 11% and 7% YoY on Cyber Monday, suggesting a growing preference for online shopping among their customer base. For the two weeks surrounding Black Friday, sales grew an average of 2% while volume decreased 3% from last year. This comes following Lululemon’s strong Q3 earnings release where they reported a 9% YoY increase in revenue and 41% YoY increase in net income.
Cooper Companies (COO): The company’s reported CooperVision revenue for F4Q24 was in-line with GfK’s sell-in estimate. GfK data was helpful in highlighting some softer share trends and projected a worse-than-seasonal inventory reduction heading into F1Q25, consistent with management’s commentary that trends in the U.S. slowed down in October and into early November due to an inventory contraction.
Microsoft (MSFT), Sony (SONY), Nintendo (NTDOY): NielsenIQ’s E-Reciept data shows continued seasonality in console sales from the above companies. The consoles of focus being Xbox Series X/S from Microsoft, PlayStation 5/4 from Sony, and the Switch/Switch Lite from Nintendo. Xbox and PlayStation both also offer a digital version of their respective consoles, boasting a lower price tag in exchange for removing hard disc functionality. All consoles mentioned experience a large spike during the November and December months, with this trend continuing through 2024.
Though sales amongst console sales from Microsoft and Sony is down YoY: Xbox Series X/S is -50.5% PlayStation 4/5 is -23.0%. While the Nintendo Switch is up +15.2%.
Despite this trend, Sony has the highest market share of console sales, at 50.3% for November 2024. For additional charts on this insight, please contact us
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The Walt Disney Company (DIS):
Disney’s US Black Friday promotion- offering a 75% discount on the Disney Bundle (Disney+ and Hulu)- has sparked a dramatically different response this year compared to prior campaigns. NielsenIQ data shows a significant surge in new subscribers during the promotion in a trend which did not materialize in 2022 or 2023. While the lower subscription price means less immediate revenue per user, Disney gains something potentially more valuable: direct subscribers. If these users remain beyond the promotional period, they will continue to be billed directly by Disney and not a third party.??
RUBRIK (RBRK): Rubrik reported strong F3Q25 results and raised their FY2025 revenue outlook, consistent with robust trends seen in GfK distributor data. In F3Q captured billings growth accelerated y/y, driven by continued momentum for Rubrik Security Cloud. For the first time ever subscription ARR exceeded USD1bn in F3Q, whilst GfK data continued to see subscription mix growing (+3pps y/y). Trends through early F4Q continue to see rising Rubrik Security Cloud adoption.?
Etsy, Inc. (ETSY): Etsy’s performance has been somewhat slow as of late compared to years prior. The last NIQ mid-month report for ETSY indicated a record-low YoY change for NielsenIQ’s mid-month total GMS (gross merchandise sales) index. This comes even as the first half of November 2024 delivered a new record mid-month average discount of $9.73. It seems that more than discounts are needed to increase traffic for the online retailer in this current holiday shopping season. Stay tuned to hear more about how Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals may have influenced customer shopping habits at ETSY for the rest of November.
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM): As egg prices have climbed over the last 6 months and stand to remain elevated through the holiday season, NielsenIQ's RMS point-of-sale data can illustrate how price increases will take shape across various brands. While 2 of the top-selling brands began taking prices up in mid-July, others have only recently taken prices up in the latest 2 months. Relative pricing along with distribution availability will impact sell-through demand moving forward.
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