December 20, 2024 - Newswires

Corn and soybeans rebounded on bargain buying, while wheat succumbed to another round of technical selling ...

Good morning, Farmer Family ...

US farm markets ended mixed, mostly higher on Thursday.

Corn prices shifted 0.8% higher.

Soybeans rebounded 1.18%.

The rest of the soy complex also was in the green as soymeal moved 1.65% higher, while soyoil climbed 1.16%.

Wheat prices succumbed to another round of technical selling with Chicago SRW losing 1.52%, Kansas City HRW falling 1%, and Minneapolis spring wheat dropping 0.89%.

• Soybeans rebounded on technical buying, after plunging to a four-year low.
• Wheat fell to lifetime lows as a strong dollar added to concerns about competition from other exporting zones.
• Corn prices were volatile, buffeted by weakness in wheat and a stronger dollar.
• Corn, soybean and wheat export sales were in line with analysts' average expectations, the USDA reported.
• Notably, the report report tallied soybean bookings for 2024/25 at 1.424 MMT during the week of 12/12.
• That was a 21.3% increase over the previous week, but the third lowest total this marketing year.
• Meal sales totaled 261,586 MT in that week, which was in the range of the 150,000-400,000 MT expectations and a 48.4% jump from the previous week.
• Bean oil sales were just 6,307 MT, on the bottom end of the 5,000 to 75,000 MT estimates and a 9-week low.
• For corn, data showed a total of 1.175 MMT of 2024/25 corn sold for export.
• That was up 24% from the week prior.
• There was another 2,540 MT sold for 2025/26.
• For wheat, data showed wheat totaling 457,933 MT in the week go 12/12.
• That was a 4-week high and on the higher end of the trade, which was looking for 225,000 MT to 550,000 MT.
• Separately, the USDA reported U.S. exporters sold 227,200 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, of which 152,000 tons was for 2024/25 delivery and 75,000 tons for 2025/26 delivery.

In this context ...

Basis bids for U.S. corn and soy were mostly flat around the U.S. Midwest, as futures bounced back from yesterday's falls, a spot check showed.

• Two exceptions were a river terminal in Davenport, Iowa, where the corn basis fell by 4 cents and an elevator in Des Moines, Iowa, where the soy basis fell by 5 cents.
• Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat were unchanged in the U.S. Plains, in a slow period for farmer selling.

This morning ...

Wheat prices edged higher, but were set for a 3.3% weekly drop. Soybean were flat and headed for a 2.2% weekly loss. Corn inched higher and was almost steady for the week.

• Notably, the most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was up 0.2% as of 0357 GMT, corn was 0.1% higher, and soybeans rose 0.1%.

South America

Brazilian consultancy Patria AgroNegocios expects the country’s 2024/25 soybean production to rise 15.3% year-over-year to 170.4 MMT – the latest entity to predict production moving north of 170 MMT this season.

• That would also be a record-breaking effort, if realized.

South Africa

South African farmers are expected to harvest 5.6% less wheat in the 2024 season compared with the previous one, the government's Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) said.

• The CEC's fifth winter crop forecast estimated the 2024 wheat harvest at 1.935 million metric tons, down from 2.05 million tons harvested the season before.

Europe

European grain markets ended mixed, mostly lower.

• March wheat on Euronext was down 1.61% at 229 euros ($237.20) a metric ton.
• MATIF corn Mar was down €1.75/t to €205.5/t, while Feb rapeseed was up €3.75/t to €524.5/t.
• The rapeseed marked a technical rebound after a strong fall on the previous 2 sessions.
• Wheat prices fell, two days after hitting a seven-week high, as a strong dollar weighed on U.S. export prospects while Black Sea supplies provided strong competition.
• Results from a Tunisian tender underscored ongoing competition from Black Sea supplies.
• Cheap export prices in Argentina have also maintained stiff international competition.
• Strategie Grains analysts cut their forecast of European Union soft wheat exports in 2024/25 to a six-year low, though they expect shipments to rebound next season in line with a larger projected harvest.
• French and German export activity remained thin.
• In Germany, one ship is loading 35,000 tons of German wheat for Ivory Coast and another is set to load 33,000 tons for Nigeria.
• In France, data from the country's main grain port at Rouen showed the only wheat shipped outside the EU in the past week was 16,000 tons of feed wheat for Morocco.

• European Union production of soft wheat could rise 11% in 2025/26 in a rebound from a 12-year low this season when the harvest was slashed by repeated heavy rain, consultancy Strategie Grains said.
• The firm projected output of soft wheat at 126.6 million metric tons, up from 114.2 million in 2024/25.
• The bigger expected EU crop should support higher EU soft wheat exports, which Strategie Grains projected at 29.3 million tons in 2025/26 compared with 23.8 million expected this season.
• For barley, Strategie Grains projected 2025/26 production at 50.6 million tons, with a drop in area expected to mostly offset a recovery in yields.
• Maize production should rise more strongly, with the 2025/26 crop initially seen at 59.6 million tons, the firm said.
• On the other hand, the European Commission on Thursday trimmed its estimate of the European Union's main wheat crop this season to a 12-year low, confirming the impact of torrential rain in major production zones in western Europe.
• In monthly supply and demand data, the Commission cut its estimate of 2024/25 usable production of common wheat, or soft wheat, to 111.9 million metric tons from 112.3 million forecast previously.
• The estimate of this season's crop was 10.6% below the previous harvest and the lowest since 2012/13, the Commission's data showed.
• The Commission did not change demand projections, which anticipate EU exports of 25 million tons.
• The reduced harvest estimate led it to lower its forecast of 2024/25 soft wheat ending stocks to 9.4 million tons from 9.8 million last month.
• For barley, it lowered its usable production estimate by 0.4 million to 49.4 million tons, though that would be 5% above a 12-year low reached last season.
• The maize crop, harvesting of which is nearly complete, was nudged down by 0.1 million to 59.5 million tons, nearly 3% less than in 2023/24.
• The Commission also reduced its harvest estimates for the EU's main oilseed crops.
• Rapeseed production in 2024/25 was cut to 16.9 million tons from 17.2 million, now 14% below last season's crop.
• The estimated output of sunflower seed was trimmed to 8.0 million tons from 8.1 million, putting it 18% down on the year.
• Grain trade association Coceral on Thursday forecast that soft wheat production in the European Union and Britain would rise to 140.4 million metric tons in 2025 after a poor crop of 125.5 million tons this year.
• In its initial outlook for next year's harvest, Coceral projected soft wheat output in the 27-country EU would jump to 126.5 million tons from 114.1 million this year, while in Britain the crop was expected to rise to 13.8 million tons from 11.4 million tons.
• For barley, Coceral forecast overall production in the EU and Britain next year at 59.7 million tons, up from 57.3 million tons this year.
• That included an expected EU barley crop of 51.9 million tons, up from 50.4 million tons, and a British crop of 7.8 million tons, against 7.0 million tons this year.
• For corn, EU production was pegged at 61.9 million tons in 2025, up from 60.2 million tons, with a sharp rise expected in southeast Europe after losses through drought and heat this year.
• In oilseeds, total rapeseed output in the EU and Britain was predicted to climb by 2 million tons to 20.3 million tons in 2025, with Coceral citing a return to normal planting levels in Romania and Bulgaria and a recovery in French and German yields.
• EU-only production was forecast to rise to 19.5 million tons from 17.4 million tons while British output was projected to drop to 775,000 tons from 915,000 tons, extending a sharp decline in recent years.
• Supporting prices, the downward pressure remains in place on the euro/ dollar.
• His attempt to rebound above 1.04 remained unsuccessful.
• The parity at 1.0360 this Friday morning is a strong support for the EU grain market.
• Nevertheless, this remains to be put into perspective with an index dollar that continues its upward surge and weighs on all commodities.

Ukraine

According to operational data of the State Customs Service, as of December 20, Ukraine has exported 20.317 mln tonnes of grain and leguminous crops since the beginning of the 2024/25 MY, of which 1.942 mln tonnes have been shipped since the beginning of the current month.

• In particular were exported, wheat for 9.424 mln tonnes, barley for 1.95 mln tonnes, corn for 8.623 mln tonnes.
• Total exports of Ukrainian flour since the beginning of the season as of December 20 are estimated at 36 thousand tonnes, including wheat flour - 32.9 thousand tonnes.

Russia

Russia has set its wheat export quota for the second half of the 2024/25 exporting season at 10.6 million metric tons, the government said.

• The figure represents a decrease on the Russian quota of 11 million metric tons announced late last month by the Eurasian Economic Union.
• Russia has now cut the export quota by 62% from 29 million tons last season as part of measures to improve domestic supply and fight inflation, currently running at 9.2%.
• "The decision was made taking into account the projected balance of production and consumption of grain crops in the domestic market," the government said in a statement.

China

China’s soybean imports from Brazil shrank 25% in November from a year earlier, while shipments from the United States rose.

• Notably, China received 2.79 million metric tons of US soybeans in the month, compared to 2.29 million tons a year ago, according to the General Administration of Customs data on Friday.
• China imported a total of 7.15 million tons of soybeans in November.
• For the 11 months of 2024, China imported a total of 97.09 million tons of the oilseed, on track for an annual record.
• However, despite the decline in Brazilian imports, the majority of China’s imports for November came from the country at 3.94 million tons.
• Meanwhile, arrivals from Argentina surged to 242,227 tons from 54,214 tons a year earlier.
• For the January-November period, China’s total US soybean imports fell 9% from a year ago to 17.88 million tons.
• Total shipments from Brazil during the 11 months rose 10% to 71.7 million tons.
• U.S exporters rushed to move their shipments before incoming president Donald Trump enters the White House.
• Tariff threats from Trump have sparked fears of another trade war between Washington and Beijing that could halt soybean trade.
• On this wake, China’s Sinograin has bought nearly 500,000 tons of US soybeans this week for shipment in March and April, paying more for US supplies for state reserves rather than buying cheaper Brazilian beans, sources reported.
• Sinograin’s latest purchases follow deals China booked last week for around 750,000 tons for shipment from January to March.
• Sinograin prefers U.S. beans when it is buying for storage because they are less prone to spoilage than those from Brazil.
• Also, US soybean prices hit four-year lows this week.

Southeast Asia

Malaysia

Malaysian palm oil slipped for a fifth straight session, weighed down by uncertainty over Indonesian and US biofuel policies.

• Notably, the benchmark palm oil contract for March delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed down 0.38%.
• During the session, the contract fell as much as 3% and had briefly gained 0.73%.
• Dalian’s most-active soyoil contract fell 3.48%, while its palm oil contract shed 3.83%.
• The ringgit weakened 0.81% against the US dollar, making the commodity cheaper for buyers holding foreign currencies.

Australia

Prices in eastern Australia were down across the board yesterday, even accounting for the support given by the lower Aussie dollar.

• Canola bids were down around $23 to $764, with GM at $663.
• Wheat was $5 lower, bid at $345, and barley bids were $2 lower, around $308.
• Pulse bids were supported by the lower dollar, with faba bean bids gaining about $20, compared with the Wednesday price, to about $605 delivered Geelong/Melb for Jan+.
• GM canola delivered Melbourne packers is being well supported by the container market, with bids, at around $700, a $40-$50 premium to port prices.
• In the west WA canola bids, were at around $850, largely unchanged, with GM bids closer to $700.
• Cereals were steady, with barley bid around $320 and wheat $380.

International grain and oilseed tenders & trade

• The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea is believed to have purchased about 67,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Thursday without issuing an international tender. It was believed to have been purchased by the KFA’s Incheon section from Japanese trading house Mitsui at an estimated $233.99 a ton cost and freight (c&f) included. The supply can be sourced from the United States, South America or South Africa. If South African corn is selected, only 50,000 tons need be supplied. It was for arrival in South Korea around March 23, 2025. If sourced from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast shipment is between Feb. 8 and March 8. Reports reflect assessments from traders and further estimates of prices and volumes are still possible later. The deal continued heavy purchasing of corn by Korea on Thursday with other deals totalling over 330,000 tons reported.

Outside markets ...

Energy markets

Oil prices fell.

• Notably, Brent crude futures fell 0.7%, while WTI February contract fell 0.91%.
• Central bankers in the U.S. and Europe signaled caution over further easing of monetary policy, fanning concerns that weak economic activity could dent demand for oil next year.
• The U.S. dollar rose to a two-year high, making oil more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.
• Softening economic activity could deepen a slowdown in oil demand growth next year.
• Energy transition measures have also hit demand sharply in China, the top oil importer.
• State-backed energy giant Sinopec on Thursday said it expects China's petroleum consumption to peak in 2027 as fuel demand weakens.

This morning, oil prices extended losses, on worries about demand growth in 2025.

• Notably, Brent crude futures fell 0.45% by 0730 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures eased 0.46%.
• As a result global oil benchmarks were on track to end the week down nearly 3%.

Ocean freight markets

The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, extended losses, slipping around 5.5%, and hitting a 17-month low.

• Notably, the main index was down for the third straight session, falling 52 points to 976 points, hitting its lowest level since July 2023.
• The capesize index dropped 158 points to 1,079 points, hitting its lowest level since Sept. 2023.
• The panamax index rose 7 points to 964 points, though still hovering at its lowest since July 2023.
• The supramax index was down 3 points at 944 points, its lowest level since August last year.

Equity markets

US stock indexes gave up an early advance and mainly settled lower.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose less than 0.1%, while the S&P 500 edged 0.1% lower, and the Nasdaq composite slipped 0.1%.
• US Q3 GDP was revised upward to 3.1% (q/q annualized).
• US weekly initial unemployment claims fell -22,000 to 220,000.
• The US Dec Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey fell -10.9 to a 20-month low of -16.4.
• US Nov leading indicators rose +0.3% m/m, posting the largest increase in 2-3/4 years.
• US Nov existing home sales rose +4.8% m/m to an 8-month high of 4.15 million.
• All that pushed bond yields even higher, with the 10-year T-note yield climbing to a 6-1/2 month high.
• The 10-year T-note yield indeed rose another +6.0 bp to end at 4.574%.
• In addition, Thursday’s -16% plunge in Micron Technology undercut technology stocks and weighed on the overall market.
• In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 2-week low and closed down -1.58%.
• Eurozone Nov new car registrations fell -1.9% to 869,816 units.
• On the other hand, the German Jan GfK consumer confidence index rose +1.8 to -21.3.
• China's Shanghai Composite Index slid to a 2-1/2 week low and closed down -0.36%.
• Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 dropped to a 2-1/2 week low and closed down -0.69%.

This morning, Asian shares were mostly lower.

• Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index dropped 0.3%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong added 0.2%, the Shanghai Composite index edged 0.1% lower, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dipped 1.2%, and South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.3%.
• Japan's core inflation rate, which excludes fresh food prices, rose 2.7% year-on-year in November, surpassing expectations.
• The data followed the Bank of Japan's decision to keep its benchmark rate at 0.25%.
• China’s central bank kept its loan prime rates unchanged.
• The one-year lending rate remained at 3.1%, while the five-year rate stayed at 3.6%.

Currency trading

The dollar index extended gains the previous session and posted a 2-year high.

• Better-than-expected US economic news supported the dollar.
• US weekly initial unemployment claims showed a stronger labor market than expectations.
• US Q3 GDP was unexpectedly revised upward, and stronger than expectations of no change.
• The US Dec Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey unexpectedly fell.
• US Nov leading indicators were stronger than expectations.
• US Nov existing home sales also were stronger than expectations.
• Meantime, the EUR/USD rose after data showed the German Jan GfK consumer confidence index rose more than expected.
• Also, higher European government bond yields have strengthened the euro’s interest rate differentials.
• On the other hand, the USD/JPY rose, with the yen tumbling to a 4-3/4 month low against the dollar.
• The BOJ kept interest rates unchanged at 0.25%, and BOJ Governor Ueda signaled the BOJ is in no hurry to raise interest rates.

This morning, the dollar was trading at 156.86 yen, down from 157.43 yen but still higher than the average of 150 yen earlier this month. The euro rose to $1.0380 from $1.0367.

Settlement Prices for Key Commodity, Index & Currencies

• Chicago wheat Mar contract was down 8.2c/bu to 533c/bu;
• Kansas wheat Mar contract was down 5.4c/bu to 543.2c/bu;
• Minneapolis wheat Dec contract was down 5.2c/bu to 586.6c/bu;

• MATIF wheat Mar was down €3.75/t to €229/t;

• ASX wheat Jan '25 contract was up A$0.1/t to A$320/t;
• US DWI Cash (durum wheat index) was up 0.87c/bu to 647.12/bu;

• 1CWAD (Canadian durum) avg spot price was down C$0.11/t to C$320.58/t.
• EDW (EU durum) Mar contract was up €6/t to €320.5/t;

• Chicago corn Mar contract was up 3.4/bu to 440.6c/bu;

• MATIF corn Mar was down €1.75/t to €205.5/t;

• Chicago soybeans Jan was up 11.2c/bu to 963c/bu;
• Winnipeg canola Jan contract was up C$10.8/t to C$598.5/t;

• MATIF rapeseed Feb was up €3.75/t to €524.5/t;

• Brent crude Feb was down US$0.51/barrel to $72.88;

• WTI crude Feb was down US$0.64/barrel to $69.38;

• BADI (Baltic Dry Index) was down 52 points to 976;

• Dow Jones was up 15,37 points to 42.342,24;
• S&P 500 was down 5.08 points to 5.867,08;
• NASDAQ Composite was down 19,93 points to 19.372,77;
• US dollar index (Mar '25) was up 0.403 points to 108.152;

• AUD/USD firmer at US$0.6237;
• USD/CAD weaker at $1.4400;
• EUR/USD firmer at $1.0358;
• USD/RUB weaker at ?103.4760.

That's all, thank you.

We wish you a nice day.

Author: Sandro F. Puglisi

Source: Me, AAFC, ABARES, Abiove, AHDB, Amis, Argus Media, Baltic Exchange, Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, CFTC, CGC, China AgMin, Clear Grain Exchange, CME, Conab, Copernicus, CWG, ECB, ECMWF, EIA, Euronext, European Commission, Eurostat, FAO, FCI, FED, GASC, GIWA, ICE, IEA, IGC, IKAR, JRC MARS Bulletin, LSEG, MPOB, National Bureau of Statistics of China, ODC, OIAC, RBA, Reuters, Rosario Grain Exchange, Russia AgMin, Russian Grain Union, S&P Global, SovEcon, StatCan, USDA, UA AgMin, and Others ...

Note:

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