Decarbonization Drive: Affordability and First Principles Overlooked in Germany and New York

The past weeks have been turbulent for renewable energy and decarbonization efforts. The common thread between New York's decision against allowing wind developers to pass on rising costs to customers and Germany's contentious heat pump mandate is evident: both approaches fail to consider the most affordable solutions and ignore the first principles of energy efficiency and building science.

### New York's Offshore Wind Woes

In New York, regulators recently denied European energy companies like Orsted, Equinor, and BP the ability to charge customers billions more under future power sale contracts. The state's decision may force some renewable developers to scrap plans for power sales in New York, potentially impacting dozens of offshore wind and land-based projects. It also questions New York's ambitious renewable energy goals.

The issue isn't just about the rising costs; it's about the viability of offshore wind in a market where photovoltaic (PV) solar power in the American Southwest has the potential to be much cheaper. Offshore wind is notoriously expensive, both in construction and operational phases. The regulatory decision makes it clear that offshore wind energy may not be the most economically feasible path to decarbonization for New York.

So what's the alternative? The American Southwest offers an almost infinite and cheaper potential for solar power. The primary obstacle is the lack of high-voltage transmission lines to deliver this electricity to where it's needed. Investing in this infrastructure would offer a more cost-effective and equally green energy alternative to expensive offshore wind.

### Germany's Heat Pump Mandate Controversy

In Germany, a mandate for the installation of heat pumps in new buildings has caused an uproar. Germany aims to replace fossil fuel heating systems to meet its climate goals, which is commendable but impractical. Heat pumps will place an additional demand on the electrical grid, causing stress, particularly if the electricity is not 100% renewable.

The push for heat pumps also ignores a key principle of building science: focus on reducing the heating or cooling load through insulation, air sealing, and mechanical ventilation. These solutions could negate the need for almost any active heating system in most homes, let alone an expensive heat pump.

### Ignoring First Principles

In both New York and Germany, the focus seems to be on implementing the most complex and expensive solutions for decarbonization, overlooking simpler, effective alternatives. For buildings, the priority should be a 'built tight, vent right' strategy. Newer technologies like aerogel insulation can drastically reduce a building's heating and cooling load, offering a cost-effective route to energy efficiency.

### Implications and the Way Forward

For New York, the immediate implication is that it may face challenges in reaching its renewable energy goals if it continues to pursue expensive offshore wind projects. The German experience, meanwhile, provides a cautionary tale about the pitfalls of not paying attention to the most cost-effective methods for achieving energy efficiency in buildings.

What unites these two cases is the principle of affordability. The decarbonization policies need to shift their focus to affordable solutions. For buildings, this means investing in insulation, air sealing, and passive house construction. For grid electricity, this entails capitalizing on PV solar power and investing in high-voltage transmission lines.

The goal of any decarbonization policy should be the creation of a system that is both green and economically sustainable. Current policies, both in Germany and New York, highlight the pitfalls of focusing on expensive, complex solutions while ignoring simpler, more cost-effective options. As policymakers recalibrate their approaches, understanding the lessons of these two cases could lead to more effective and economically viable solutions.