Decarbonisation: what happened to plan B?

Decarbonisation: what happened to plan B?

In today's edition, we delve into our climate future - and whether we're on track to meet our decarbonisation goals.


?? Thanks to our sponsor Cisco, the worldwide technology leader that securely connects everything.


What happened to plan B?

Source: UN Environment Program

We’re not on track to meet the 2030 climate goals. The State of Climate Action 2023 report highlights this issue, finding that only electric vehicles are on track to hit their target. EV usage increased from 1.6% in 2018 to 10% in 2022, surpassing the crucial 5% tipping point for mass adoption. Credit to the report for understanding the S-curve dynamic - how initial slow growth in technology adoption can lead to a rapid increase once certain thresholds are crossed. However, the report finds that other S-curve indicators, such as zero carbon electricity generation & green hydrogen production, are not on track.

It is important?to acknowledge that S-curves are quite sensitive to inputs; they can accelerate more rapidly if the private or public sector changes their behaviour. This means that despite the pessimistic outlook, changes can still take place that can have a large effect.?

At Exponential View, we think that over the next 7-10 years, things will move faster than expected: that is the shape of the exponential ramp. Climate analysis often is more pessimistic than it should be. Yet it is true, we aren’t significantly reducing emissions. Plan A is falling behind.

Plan B is looking seriously at higher risk mitigation strategies, like solar radiation management, or being more honest about adaptation strategies. Startups focusing on adapting to climate change impacts received a mere 7.5% of global climate tech funding during 2019-2020. This underfunding is stark, especially considering the UN Environment Program’s identification of a global annual funding gap of up to $194-366 billion for adaptation projects. The world is already feeling the effects of climate change, and adaptation is key to managing these real impacts. Yet, our current efforts are far from treating this as a high priority.


Today’s edition is supported by our partner Cisco.

According to the inaugural Cisco AI Readiness Index, 97% of surveyed organisations say the urgency to deploy AI-powered tech in their company has skyrocketed in the past six months. But here’s the reality - intentions are outpacing actual abilities: 86% of companies globally are not fully prepared to leverage AI to its fullest potential. The index, based on a double-blind survey of 8,161 private sector pros involved in AI integration or deployment, examines factors such as strategy, infrastructure, data, talent, governance, and culture. It’s your ultimate guide to accelerate AI adoption, unlock business value, and enhance experiences for both employees and customers.

Explore now.


Ivan McAdam O'Connell ??

Freedom Lifestyle Designer: From bank COO to helping people & businesses unlock new opportunities

1 年

I hope you’re correct, … and I share some of your optimism that in clean energy as well, things are ramping up to a tipping point

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Eng. Muhammed Shan Salim

Mechanical?Inspector?&?Trainer?at?TUV?SMAT |Training?Specialist?|?ASME?Code?Expert?|?ISO?&?BS EN?Compliance?Professional

1 年

Azeem Azhar In our climate journey, the path toward achieving our?2030 decarbonization objectives?appears to be veering off course. The?State of Climate Action 2023 report?underscores this concern, revealing that only?electric vehicles (EVs)?are on track to meet their targets. Remarkably, EV adoption surged from a mere 1.6% in 2018 to a robust 10% in 2022, surpassing the critical 5% tipping point for widespread adoption. Kudos to the report for recognizing the?S-curve dynamic, wherein gradual technology adoption can suddenly accelerate once specific thresholds are breached.?However, the same report laments that other S-curve indicators—such as?zero-carbon electricity generation?and?green hydrogen production—are lagging behind1. It’s essential to recognize that S-curves are remarkably responsive to inputs; a shift in behavior by the private or public sector can significantly hasten progress. Despite the prevailing pessimism, there remains room for impactful changes. At?Exponential View, we anticipate that the next?7-10 years?will witness a pace swifter than anticipated—a trajectory akin to an?exponential ramp. Climate analysis often tends toward pessimism, but the future may surprise us yet! ??????

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