A decade of working independently

A decade once seemed like an insurmountable stretch of time to me. Yet as the years have raced by, a decade has become far more tangible. It was with a certain sense of shock, that I realised it has been exactly a decade since I quit my last "proper" job, at Nomura. So I thought I'd write a bit about what I've learnt in the past decade and in particular over the past year since cofounding Turnleaf Analytics, where we forecast inflation using machine learning and alternative data.

I still remember sitting across from my manager at the time, explaining that I wanted to leave. I had actually really enjoyed time there, but it felt as though each year was somehow melding into the other. This isn't to say that an element of routine is bad, it's simply that when routine becomes too persistent, challenge seems to vanishes and it's time to try something new. Sometimes you just have to do it!

In retrospect, I quit my job somewhat prematurely. I knew I wanted to work independently, but my initial idea really didn't work out. The goal had been to replicate what I had done successfully at the bank, publishing quant research notes but as an independent. The difficulty was that before the advent of MiFID II, clients were still used to getting free research from banks, and it wasn't a barrier I was able to overcome at the time.

Ultimately, I hadn't done sufficient research into the viability of the business before starting, and this proved an important lesson for the future. Understanding the market's appetite for a product, as well as its pricing is critical. Of course, not everyone will necessarily want to buy your product or invest in your firm, but there needs to be a critical mass of clients and funding to create and grow a business. There is always the challenge with a startup that you no longer have that big bank brand next to your time. You need to elevate the brand yourself..

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