A decade of doubt

 “Nobody knows anything” was the theme of Gyles Brandreth’s address at this year’s Highland SCDI dinner. Gyles was funny. He also made a serious point. The future is, has and always will be uncertain. The possibility of Brexit does not add to the uncertainty. Nobody ever knows what is going to happen in the future, not even ‘the experts’. 

As I write this article Boris Johnson has just announced a new Brexit deal. It faced immediate criticism. Where will we be after the special sitting of parliament on Saturday, 19th October? Will we be staying in the EU, preparing the legislation to leave, preparing for another EU referendum or a general election. Perhaps environmental activists may have ruined or saved the country by then. Nobody knows.

Scotland faced uncertainty leading up to the independence referendum in 2014. No sooner had this ended when Brexit took up the reins. We could face years of political wrangling; a trade deal with the EU, a second Scottish independence referendum and potentially tortuous exit negotiations if Scotland voted to leave the UK.

Many businesses put transactions on hold in the run up to Indyref. Brexit is clearly slowing progress. It may come as a surprise to many politicians but, the discussion of politics in boardrooms is generally restricted to managing political risk.

Let’s take a lead and be an example to the politicians. We need to keep focusing on our day jobs – running the business be that a private company, a not for profit or a public-sector body. Our politicians would do well do to likewise and remember effective healthcare, education, housing, transport, policing, etc. These are the issues that improve the quality of life for the majority.

Our prosperity and well-being is more closely anchored to getting out of bed, working hard, being innovative, providing quality products and services to our customers than it is to the decisions of politicians. Many of our political elite may benefit by being reminded of Mark Twain’s words “I don’t vote for politicians, it only encourages them.” I understand more colourful versions of this quote are available!

Is there any point in planning during these uncertain times? The New Testament records some advice on planning that dates back two thousand years: “Is there anyone here who is planning to build a new house, doesn’t he first sit down and figure the cost so you’ll know if you can complete it? If you only get the foundation laid and then run out of money, you’re going to look pretty foolish. Everyone passing by will poke fun at you: “He started something he couldn’t finish”.”

Irrespective of Brexit or Indyref2 we shouldn’t let potential events stop us planning. Quite the reverse, they should make us plan more. Whether your planning is basic cash flow forecasting, a risk register, a disaster recovery plan or a fully thought out marketing, personnel and operating plan – it remains valuable and relevant.

As an undergraduate student I was tasked with writing an essay – “Is strategic planning essential or impossible?”. I argued it is both. I haven’t changed my mind. Irrespective of the current political and constitutional issues, we can’t let this decade of doubt delay us.