A Decade of Change

As I write, I am constantly reminded that this is the last Monday of the decade in the 21st century. A few more days and we will be starting the new year of 2020.

Of late, I have become more cognisant and more appreciative of the advice that I had received in my life. When I was much younger, the wise and older folks tend to say "when you grow older, you will reminiscent more and you will be more aware of the changes that have happened around you."

Now as I approached my 4th decade on earth, increasingly I start to realise the wisdom in those words.

What better time than now, to share my observations of the changes in the past decade.

The Ubiquitous Smart Phones and Applications

According to Statistica, as of Q3 2019, there are an estimated 1.8 million applications in Apple's App Store, and about 2.5 million in Android. In total there are more than 5 million apps to be downloaded for consumers globally.

In 2008, there were only about 500 applications in Apple's App Store, and I cannot find any official numbers for the Android platform. What I do recall is that, back in 2011, I was struggling to install applications into my Blackberry Curve back to help my FX hedging and deal monitoring while on the move.

Nowadays, there are so many apps that one can download from entertainment to travel to banking to government services. In fact, many finance professionals are performing quite a few operational tasks on their smartphones, like filing claims, monitoring portfolios and approving payments.

The smartphones have become more than just a calling and messaging device, it is now doubling up as an ID, wallet, organiser, and many more. The number of applications available is mindboggling, and we have witnessed so many of the providers morphing from their original single functionality model to becoming a super app. Think Grab, Facebook and many others.

In the future, I hope that the smartphones and applications can release us from the need of a fixed desk setup, whereby the current functionalities that are deskbound can be replaced by smartphones allowing us to be truly mobile.

Real Time Connectivity and Live Streaming

While we were waiting for breakfast on a regular Sunday morning, my two young boys reminded me that it was data free Sunday, and they requested for Youtube time to catch up on their favourite Pokemon episodes on the smartphones. Obligingly, I pass them the phone and they sat quietly and happily watching the stream videos in HD without fussing over poor connectivity or quality.

Two happy kids, one happy dad with some quiet time and I know this is 2019, unlike 2009 where I will probably be getting complaints about laggy data, poor connectivity and high chance getting a rude mobile data bill after breakfast!

Professionally, things have changed a lot, especially as an ex-Trader, FX dealing has changed quite a little. In 2008, I still recall the many discussions and debates over phone dealing versus online dealing, single bank portals vs multi-banks portals, and folks marveling over algo trading, live streaming and bid/ask arbitrage snapping.

Fast forward to 2019, a few corporate treasurers shared their new setup where their FX exposures are calculated via pre-defined rules from their finance data sitting in their ERP systems, these exposures are then sent to an e-trading portal where the trade details are auto-populated and filled via competitive live streaming prices from multiple banks. The deal confirmations and hedge accounting postings are then made via STP into the respective confirmation and ERP systems. It is an efficient and effective setup, allowing the treasury team to focus on higher value work.

As of now, not all treasury setups are as advanced as the example above. There are many hurdles like financial costs, lack of know-how and small setups that are not able to draw on economies of scale.

In my opinion, in the near future, all these roadblocks will be removed. Just like how 4G and fiber optic cables have replaced the previous 3G and broadband network. I am looking forward to 5G networks where faster speeds and wider bandwidth will allow the current digitisation innovations to fully blossom. The schools will provide more young talents trained and skilled in these tech areas, providing the know-how and popularising these niche solutions. This helps in lowering the cost and resource barriers for corporations to adopt and integrate tech solutions into their setups.

Rise of the Machines

"You must make a trip to China!" many of my good friends tell me.

My last trip to China was many years back, way before Siri came as a standard feature on I-phones. Today, China is one of the leading players in A.I and facial recognition technology. The long queues for ticketing and payments in restaurants, subways, and many other places are alleviated by facial recognition and cashless payment technology.

Many friends who have traveled to China, lamented on their weird predicament of being unable to pay for lunch/dinner with cash and thus ended up going dutch or receiving a treat from their clients/junior colleagues. Even street vendors insist on going cashless, and will readily create a fuss if one tries to pay with cash!

Much has been said and written about the uber-modern supermarkets and robot enabled warehouses across many cities in China. And if one jaywalks, unknowingly or intentionally, you will end up being picked up by the many cameras lining the streets and identified via the facial recognition systems deployed by the authorities.

In the last few years, there have been a lot of disrupters at work. Whether they are Fintechs or tech firms, there appears to be a commonality - new ways of doing things cheaper, better and faster. Robots, APIs, Blockchain and Automation are some of the many techie buzzwords that caught up with many corporations and individuals. Myself as well!

We have seen many manual processes being taken over by Bots, AIs, and APIs. We have witnessed some jobs being made redundant as a result. And we have heard many concerned voices voicing their worries and concerns about jobs being replaced by robots.

I can understand the concerns, but my opinion is that these are transient and necessary "evil". Just like how typewriters are being replaced by computers in the 80s/90s, armies of typists were dislodged and made redundant. They came back retrained and reskilled with basic computer skills, and found better paying jobs.

We are at the cusp of the digital era. Old skills and jobs are bound to be made redundant and lost. It is crucial that we pick up new skills and learn new tricks so that we can better fit ourselves in new roles and responsibilities.

Will you start learning Python or at least appreciate the mechanism of Blockchain?

Proliferation of Online Social Media

My subscription to the mainstream news vendor comes with digital access. Needless to say, I have no complaints as I get my top news and newsfeed mainly via smartphones and in digital forms. While I still do read the physical papers, but mainly for the lengthy commentary articles and in-depth analysis pieces. Sometimes, I do pick up interesting bits from social media, which I will cross-check with other trusty sources.

Information and News from social media are inevitable.

Most government agencies, MNCs, SMEs, corporate bigwigs, professional individuals, and politicians maintain their social media profiles. It is common for MNCs to own their websites along with manicured accounts on Facebook, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Even President Trump takes to Twitter his rants and grouses on so many things, and celebrities compete and fight over their online rankings and number of followers!

When I spoke to a few teenagers recently, they shared their aspirations of becoming an influencer and/or e-sports commentator. Like seriously? Can you even make some money out of this? IMHO, Facepalm! DAE, DM pls!

However, what we see on the digital world can be misleading, and sometimes they are blatant lies. Fake news is a term created in the last decade and is something that seems to be so real yet so unreal. Ministers investing and profiting from cryptocurrencies investments made their rounds, duping many in the new digital world with an age-old scheme.

The issue on hand is not about banning or blocking digital social media. In my opinion, it is more about risks management and education. Professionals should be mindful of the traps and pitfalls of the online world, but yet be cognisant of the benefits of the digital world.

In the past, if one is not trained in a particular profession or one is not well acquainted in an industry, it can be very painful and taxing to do research over a particular topic of interest. These days, anyone can Google for information at an instant, or obtain answers on questions posted on Quora. When Quora started in 2009/2010, there were about 500 users. Now there are more than 300 million registered users!

If you do not believe me, please ask Google or Siri. Maybe even Reddit.

Environmental Sustainability

Some people still insist that global warming is a hoax, a grand scheme of deception designed to fool the masses.

I have no idea how they cannot trust their eyes, ears and the rest of their sensory. Or how they choose not to believe the increasing news of forest fires, record high temperatures, freak storms and disappearing snowcaps around the world.

Perhaps, they just need a trip to the countries facing the wrath of nature. Nothing beats real-life experience.

During my recent holiday trip, I experienced the heatwave in Melbourne where temperatures are usually rather mild around 25 degrees Celcius but we saw 44 degrees printed and experienced the scorching heat when we stepped outside the air-conditioned malls. I believed one can cook eggs if cracked on top of sun-baked cars!

Singapore might not see snow, but we are surrounded by water. Being a tiny island city nation, we are not spared from the changing weather patterns. So real the threat, that our Prime Minister Lee devoted time and speak about the acute and present need to raise 100 billion dollars to create a coastal defense for Singapore during his national address than economics or politics.

What is your take on the changes for the ending decade? Are you prepared for the next 10 years?

For me, I choose to believe that the risks of being shown the exit is always present. And one should embrace the changes that come with the changing times.

Thus it is important to remain connected with the ecosystem, be open and collaborate with different stakeholders and strive for co-creation towards solutions for the greater good.

Take care and have a great 2020 ahead!