Dec 18am, FX/S&P/BTC Commentary
Euro-1.1370. Euro rallies 120 points and everyone is bullish. I guess markets are a lot more bullish when they go up instead of down. Maybe this is the start of a much larger rally but until 1.1540/60 deals, I'll look to sell rallies. The one thing I will say is there is definitely buying interest below 1.1300--can see on the point and figure chart on the left every time the Euro trades below 1.1300 it rallies but is stalling out between 1.1440 and 1.1500. Maybe the selling pressure dries up and the buying pressure takes over. Anyway, the red horizontal line is at 1.1500. There are very few prints at that price compared to prices above and below--this is a low volume trading zone. Low volume trading levels show which direction the capital flow is in. It is above the market, so until that level breaks, I expect the market to trade lower. Above 1.1540ish, then Ill say the market can rally strongly. For today, 83% of the 10-day average daily range is in so I don't expect much more especially with event risk this week. Yesterdays mid was 1.1330 and today's is 1.1370 so neutral at the moment.
S&P-2560. S&P struggling with this zone. I have been calling for a move to new highs and I still think that will happen--will it take Fed inaction or comments? I don't know--but I don't think the bear market starts this easily. I know plenty of people have been calling for a top and they will get it right at some point--maybe this is it. My scenario is for a move to new highs into the March/May time period and then for THE market to really turn. For now, there is no sign the low or a low is in. A move above 2700 is needed to stabilize the market and then a break of 2850 confirms new highs. There are multiple TDST support lines and we just broke one at 2594. That suggests move to the next lower one at 2446 and below that at 2332.
BTC-3500. The right hand chart is the point and figure. Can see the market disconnected below and is now testing the single prints at 3550. Really need to trade above 3600+ to reconnect and target a move to 4200. There are plenty of levels of resistance to get above for a sustainable rally but it looks like market is trying to find a bottom. A move to new lows targets 3000/2990 and the 2650ish.