Debunking siren calls for Ukraine surrender, i.e. paging M. Greene in particular as an example. The facts as that giving in to Putin will not work
M. Greene and a whole list of fellow travelers in the Congressional Freedom caucus have a magical 'solution' to the Ukraine invasion. Remain calm and surrender to Putin. In the face of this idiot refrain the following two articles, which delve into Putin and the crumbling of the Russian invasion are offered as counter weights to this surrender mythology, All is fair in love and war is a dumb tack in any time. We shall see as to how brain dead it is, as to this current conflict. We close with the third article which stars a Russian Colonel whom on Russian state TV told the Russian public the facts of life.
First a stake in the heart of the "all is well, just give into Putin" refrain by M. Greene
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/western-advocates-of-appeasement-need-a-crash-course-in-putinology/
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May 15, 2022
Western advocates of appeasement need a crash course in Putinology
By Anders ?slund
FILTER RESULTS
The war in Ukraine has exposed the fundamental failure of Western audiences to appreciate the true nature of modern Russia. Many international observers still assume Russia is a rational actor and believe policies of appeasement can bring the conflict in Ukraine to an end. Nothing could be further from the truth.
In reality, neither bleeding heart liberals nor diehard realists truly understand Vladimir Putin. They fail to recognize that he is an authoritarian kleptocrat who does not care about Russia’s national interest and is focused instead on his power and wealth. He hides this self-interest behind a fa?ade of revisionist Russian nationalism that helps secure popular support for his criminal rule.
As I have argued in my book, “Russia’s Crony Capitalism: The Path from Market Economy to Kleptocracy,†Putin’s personal politics combine authoritarianism and kleptocracy. He needs war not to make Russia great again but to increase his popularity and justify his repressive domestic policies. Putin also fears the rise of a democratic Ukraine and views the country’s Euro-Atlantic integration as an existential threat to his own authoritarian regime.
Understanding Putin is the key to forming effective Western policies toward Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainians tend to understand Putin very well but surprisingly few Westerners do. A number of common misconceptions need to be addressed and debunked if the West wishes to get Russia right.
One key problem when dealing with Putin is the Western fear of escalation. The Russian dictator is well aware of this and always escalates until he has won or been defeated. The West must therefore not seek to avoid escalation, but should demonstrate a readiness to escalate more and faster. This is the only way to ensure that Putin fails and Ukraine wins.
Western fears of “provoking Putin†are particularly unhelpful. For this reason, US President Barack Obama refused to deliver lethal weapons to Ukraine. Members of the current US administration appear to embrace the same flawed idea. Meanwhile, similar arguments dominate the debate in Europe and fuel a mood of excessive caution that only serves to embolden Putin.
It is difficult to see any logic in these concerns. Putin has started an unprovoked and unjustified war, but it is the West that must not provoke him? Such thinking is essentially a call to allow a Russian victory and accept Ukrainian defeat. Instead, the word “provocation†should be retired from the Western discussion about Putin.
A similarly gentlemanly idea is the notion that the West must allow Putin to save face. Really? Putin is no gentleman. He wages wars of aggression and ruthlessly orders the destruction of entire cities. The West cannot compromise over crimes against humanity on this scale. On the contrary, Putin must be defeated. The only language he understands is the language of overwhelming strength.
Many misguided Western politicians and commentators continue to call on Ukraine to negotiate with Putin. The problem with this position is that Putin himself has consistently refused to meet, negotiate, or even speak on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Putin has also demonstrated conclusively that his word has no value and he feels under no obligation to keep any of his promises. For decades, Putin has routinely violated international agreement after agreement while publicly defending his conduct with bare-faced lies and obviously implausible denials. Why bother to conclude another worthless agreement with this lawless character?
Western calls for Ukrainian neutrality are similarly futile. Ukraine has been neutral throughout its thirty years of independence and has never had any serious prospects of joining NATO. Far from fearing Ukraine’s NATO integration, Putin invaded the country precisely because it was not a NATO member and had not received sufficient military support from the alliance.
NATO membership remains the only credible security guarantee for Ukraine. Finland and Sweden have drawn the obvious conclusion from Russia’s invasion and have now abandoned decades of neutrality. Ruling out closer ties between NATO and Ukraine will only encourage further Russian aggression in Ukraine and elsewhere.
EURASIA CENTER EVENTS
Online Event
Fri, May 20, 2022 ? 9:00 am ET
A conversation with Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak
AN #ACFRONTPAGE EVENT – Western sanctions on Russia have eaten into the Kremlin’s capacity to wage war. What does Ukraine see as the best targets for the West to maintain economic pressure?
Conflict Economic Sanctions Russia Ukraine
When advocates of appeasement run out of other arguments, they tend to call for an immediate ceasefire. While seemingly sensible, these appeals ignore Russia’s long record of treating ceasefire agreements as opportunities to regroup and prepare for new attacks.
This trend was particularly prominent during the seven years of simmering conflict in eastern Ukraine following the signing of the second Minsk Accords in February 2015. Russia refused to adhere to the ceasefire terms agreed in Minsk and regularly launched localized escalations to suit Moscow’s interests.
Peaceniks often declare that the West must avoid painting Putin into a corner. Similarly, they warn against destabilizing Russia, but it is entirely irrational to position Putin as a source of stability when he is clearly the main destabilizing factor in both Europe and Russia itself. Where would Europe be today if this twisted logic had been applied to Adolf Hitler?
Russia’s war against Ukraine is the biggest geopolitical crisis for a generation. It is entirely understandable that many international observers are desperate to end the slaughter and believe a negotiated peace is the best way to secure peace. However, such hopes are shortsighted and fail to appreciate the character of the Putin regime.
The only way to end the war conclusively is via a decisive Ukrainian victory that forces Russia to acknowledge its defeat and sees Ukraine regain all the land it has lost since 2014. If a compromise peace allows Putin to hold on to his latest territorial gains in Ukraine, he will use any pause in hostilities to prepare for the next stage in his campaign to subjugate the rest of the country. If he wins the war, Russian aggression will inevitably expand beyond the borders of Ukraine.
Years of Western wishful thinking and concessions to the Kremlin have failed to prevent Putin’s emergence as the greatest threat to world peace. It is now time to recognize the reality of modern Russia and belatedly abandon the path of appeasement.
Anders ?slund is the author of “Russia’s Crony Capitalism: The Path from Market Economy to Kleptocracy.â€
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And here is why the whining by M. Greene is so unnecessary
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/vladimir-putin-is-running-out-of-options-to-avoid-defeat-in-ukraine/
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May 17, 2022
Vladimir Putin is running out of options to avoid defeat in Ukraine
By Taras Kuzio
FILTER RESULTS
When Vladimir Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, he envisaged a lightning campaign that would be over in a matter of days with Ukraine’s pro-Western government deposed and the country firmly back in the Russian orbit. However, things have not gone according to plan. The Russian military has suffered catastrophic losses and failed to achieve its key objectives, while Ukraine has fought tenaciously and secured the support of the entire democratic world. As the war approaches the three-month mark, Putin is now rapidly running out of options to avoid a disastrous defeat that will shatter Russia’s pretensions to military superpower status and threaten the future of his entire regime.
According to British estimates, Russia has already lost approximately one-third of the 190,000-strong invasion force assembled in February 2022. Putin chose to invade with this obviously inadequate force due to a combination of faulty intelligence and his own faith in Russian nationalist dogma, which convinced him that the Ukrainian public would greet advancing Russian soldiers as liberators and shower them with flowers.
Instead, his troops received an overwhelmingly hostile reception and were soon reporting severe battlefield losses. Amid mounting setbacks, Russia lost the Battle for Kyiv and was forced to retreat entirely from northern Ukraine. More recently, Russian forces have been pushed away from Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, while the much anticipated Donbas Offensive in eastern Ukraine has made painfully slow progress.
Putin’s most obvious option at this point would be to escalate the conflict by moving from today’s so-called “Special Military Operation†to an official declaration of war against Ukraine and full mobilization. This might help to fill growing gaps within the ranks of the Russian military, but public opposition to mobilization could also destabilize the domestic situation within Russia at a time when the Kremlin is already paranoid over possible signs of revolt. Perhaps this fear of opposition helps explain why a significant number of oligarchs and their families have died in suspicious circumstances in recent months.
Nor would mobilization necessarily produce the kind of fighting force Putin currently needs. An army full of conscripts and reservists with limited military training would be no match for Ukraine’s battle hardened and highly motivated troops armed with superior Western weapons.
Putin’s predicament is likely to worsen in the coming months, making his invasion of Ukraine even more untenable. Western sanctions will begin to have a greater impact from the end of the summer season onward as Russia’s inability to replace Western imports becomes impossible to disguise and as the savings of ordinary Russians begin to run out. Unemployment figures will likely reach record highs and economic forecasts will deteriorate as the costs of international isolation continue to mount.
Growing public awareness of the grim military situation in Ukraine will add to the gloomy mood. Based on the current rate of attrition, the Russian army will suffer 50,000 combat deaths by September. Such losses are completely unprecedented for a major power in modern warfare and cannot be entirely explained away or otherwise disguised by the Kremlin propaganda machine.
The Kremlin currently faces a series of parallel challenges as it seeks to prevent the faltering invasion of Ukraine from unravelling completely.
There are no more pressing issues than the rising number of Russian soldiers refusing to fight in Ukraine. Reports of resistance to deployment have been emerging since the early days of the war and continue to mount. Growing numbers of Russian contract soldiers have resigned from the army or simply refused to fight in Ukraine, while members of Russia’s National Guard have allegedly argued that they are legally only obliged to serve within the borders of the Russian Federation.
Other forms of protest have been more informal. Large numbers of Russian troops have simply abandoned their tanks and armored vehicles in Ukraine and fled or surrendered. This has enabled the Ukrainian military to acquire over 230 Russian tanks and earned Russia the unwelcome status of Ukraine’s number one arms supplier.
Morale among Putin’s invasion force now appears close to breaking point. Anger at incompetent officers has led to at least one incident of soldiers running over their commander. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Security Service has intercepted numerous telephone conversations of Russian troops calling home and describing the hell they face in Ukraine and the often staggering scale of the casualties within their individual military units.
EURASIA CENTER EVENTS
Online Event
Fri, May 20, 2022 ? 9:00 am ET
A conversation with Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak
AN #ACFRONTPAGE EVENT – Western sanctions on Russia have eaten into the Kremlin’s capacity to wage war. What does Ukraine see as the best targets for the West to maintain economic pressure?
Conflict Economic Sanctions Russia Ukraine
The Kremlin is particularly eager to prevent the Russian public from learning the criminal realities of the war. While some intercepted mobile telephone calls indicate Russian support for atrocities against Ukrainian civilians, it is likely that widespread awareness of war crimes committed in Ukraine would spark a highly negative response. Russian propaganda has been largely successful in demonizing Ukrainians, but the Kremlin lacks convincing excuses for the mass murder of civilians in Russian-speaking Ukrainian cities such as Mariupol and Kharkiv.
Likewise, Russian officials are having difficulty explaining how the supposedly “second most powerful army in the world†is unable to defeat a nation that Putin insists does not exist. Longstanding negative stereotypes of Ukraine as an unruly peasant province of Russia have left today’s Russian public ill-prepared for the shock of modern Ukraine’s impressive military prowess and strong national identity. After years of propaganda insisting that only a tiny minority of Ukrainian nationalists actually opposed Russia, the Kremlin finds itself forced to acknowledge that the entire Ukrainian nation, including millions of Russian-speaking Ukrainian patriots, now regards Russia as its sworn enemy.
Despite wall-to-wall pro-war propaganda, Russians are already becoming increasingly aware that the “Special Military Operation†is running into serious difficulties. A series of unexplained fires and explosions across Russia have fuelled unconfirmed rumors of Ukrainian sabotage and Special Forces operations on the home front, while military disasters such as the sinking of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet flagship The Moskva and the recent Russian defeat on the Donets River have been too big to cover up completely.
The grim realities of the war in Ukraine will be further brought home to Russian audiences as Ukraine puts more Russian soldiers on trial for committing war crimes against Ukrainian civilians. While the Kremlin will continue to deny that these crimes took place, it will be impossible to entirely block accounts of Stalinist-style mass executions and the documented rape of over 400 Ukrainian women from reaching the Russian public.
Russia’s crippling military losses and the practical limitations of a possible mobilization mean that Putin’s Ukraine war is fast becoming unwinnable against an opponent which enjoys high morale and unprecedented international support. As Ukrainian forces receive further weapons from the West and continue to launch successful counterattacks, we can expect to see the slow but steady degradation of Russian forces. Eventually, this may lead to a 1917-style collapse as morale within the Russian army continues to plummet.
The failure of his Ukrainian adventure will have disastrous domestic consequences for Putin personally. It will shatter the myth of the all-powerful dictator and lead to calls for dramatic political change within Russia. The exact nature of the ensuing crisis is impossible to predict, but it already looks highly unlikely that Putin will remain president for life.
Taras Kuzio is a Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and Professor of Political Science at the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy. He is the author of the recently published book “Russian Nationalism and the Russian-Ukrainian War.â€
end of quote
FINALLY, in deepest Russia, the truth is breaking out, and here is the proof
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61484222
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Retired colonel speaks out on Russian TV
By Steve Rosenberg
Russia Editor
Published
1 day ago
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Mikhail Khodarenok said Russia was in total political isolation
Russia's mainstream media outlets offer a view of the Ukraine war that is unlike anything seen from outside of the country. For a start, they don't even call it a war. But our Russia editor reflects on a rare exchange broadcast on state TV.
It was an extraordinary piece of television.
The programme was 60 Minutes, the flagship twice-daily talk show on Russian state TV: studio discussion that promotes the Kremlin line on absolutely everything, including on President Putin's so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine.
The Kremlin still maintains that the Russian offensive is going according to plan.
But on Monday night, studio guest Mikhail Khodarenok, a military analyst and retired colonel, painted a very different picture.
He warned that "the situation [for Russia] will clearly get worse" as Ukraine receives additional military assistance from the West and that "the Ukrainian army can arm a million people".
Referring to Ukrainian soldiers, he noted: "The desire to defend their motherland very much exists. Ultimate victory on the battlefield is determined by the high morale of troops who are spilling blood for the ideas they are ready to fight for.
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"The biggest problem with [Russia's] military and political situation," he continued, "is that we are in total political isolation and the whole world is against us, even if we don't want to admit it. We need to resolve this situation.
"The situation cannot be considered normal when against us, there is a coalition of 42 countries and when our resources, military-political and military-technical, are limited."
The other guests in the studio were silent. Even the host, Olga Skabeyeva, normally fierce and vocal in her defence of the Kremlin, appeared oddly subdued.
In many ways, it's a case of "I told you so" from Mr Khodarenok. Writing in Russia's Independent Military Review back in February, before Moscow attacked Ukraine, the defence analyst had criticised "enthusiastic hawks and hasty cuckoos" for claiming that Russia would easily win a war against Ukraine.
His conclusion back then: "An armed conflict with Ukraine is not in Russia's national interests."
The symbol of Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine crops up all over Moscow
Criticism in print is one thing. But on TV - to an audience of millions - that is another level completely. The Kremlin has gone out of its way to control the informational landscape here: shutting down independent Russian news sources and ensuring that television - the principal tool in Russia for shaping public opinion - is on message.
It is rare to hear such realistic analysis of events on Russian TV.
Rare. But not unique. In recent weeks, critical views have appeared on television here. In March, on another popular TV talk show, a Russian filmmaker told the presenter: "The war in Ukraine paints a frightening picture, it has a very oppressive influence on our society."
So what happened on 60 Minutes? Was this a spontaneous, unprompted and unexpected wake-up call on Ukraine that slipped through the net?
Or was it a pre-planned burst of reality in order to prepare the Russian public for negative news on the progress of the "special military operation"?
It's difficult to say. But as they say on the telly, stay tuned to Russian TV for further signals.
end of quote
What we can infer by M. Greene and the Congressional Freedom caucus frenzied demands for surrender to Putin, by any means necessary?
A. The fact is, that Russia is losing its land war in Ukraine. The program by M. Greene, Rand Paul and the Freedom caucus would be akin to having congress demand an immediate surrender of the USN after it beat the Japanese IJN right after the battle of Midway, in June 1942. Ahem, what is that sound ? The sound of a rotten egg breaking, and in point of fact the entire surrender Ukraine now program has about as much plausibility as demobilization of the USN right after it beat the tar out of the IJN, in June 1942
B. Do you all think that a retired COLONEL in Russia was given airtime as to explain succinctly that " dear this is not working ! " rebuke to Putin's war in RUSSIAN prime time TV magically popped up due to secret dark forces subverting the holy mission to destroy Ukraine for saint Putin? Ahem, if you really believe that, here is a fact. The Russian military knows full well that this war is NOT working
C. It is in the interest of RUSSIA even more than Ukraine to end the goddamn Russian invasion of Ukraine. I.e. Russia is being torn apart, and saying it is the "fault" of NATO, for that happening is a whopping insult to the hundreds of thousands of Ukraine citizens who are fighting to the death for their country and the goddamn EU itself to boot. I.e. Ukraine is doing the job which should have been done 23 years ago when Putin stole the presidency of his country, and all of Europe and America ought to THANK Ukraine for what it has done to defend them.
D. I am personally NAUSEATED by the assumed "realists" I have heard with their opinions as to Slavic people needing "dictatorship" as the glue to Slavic humanity. In more ways than one, this obscene slur and diminuation of the intellect , genius and also of artistic beauty of the Slavic peoples needs to be thrown in the garbage cans with the abject racists of yore, whom made absurd similar generalizations of everyone else not in the presumed "nordic" cohort. Enough is enough
Lets FINISH this, and I do not want to EVER hear any more stupid pseudoscientific racism proclaiming that Slavic people in any way deserve the barbarism of Vladimir Putin
Slava Ukraini.
Andrew Beckwith, PhD
Novelist,Photographer
2 å¹´I stand with Ukraine????????????