Debt driven farmer suicides are preventable
We hear the same story about farmers all over the world. Farmers borrow money for seeds and fertilizer. A drought causes crop failure so the farmer cannot re-pay the loan. Each failed crop causes more debt that grows year to year. Eventually the debt grows so large the farmer ends up bankrupt. The poor farmer is depressed with no visible route of escape and commits suicide. The debt problem is aggravated by a combination of soil degradation, climate change, water scarcity and mono-crops. Farmer suicides in India are well publicized but we have seen similar conditions all over the world.
This article describes how Grow dryland can help solve the problem while increasing long term economic output and reducing the need to import food. It also describes how much just 10 years of this problem creates a 44 billion RS welfare liability and could reduce lifetime tax collection by 1.2 trillion RS.
The debt does not die with the husband; unless the wife can find a way of paying it off, she will not be able to afford the children’s schooling. They will lose their land, joining the hordes seen begging in their thousands by the roadside.
These children face a reduced opportunity for education and are likely to earn reduced lifetime incomes and add to welfare costs.
Drought based debt accumulation is compounded by soil degradation which means farmers receive dropping yields and must apply more chemicals at higher costs. Increased costs relative to crop yields reduce profit during good years making debt repayment more difficult.
State and federal government can reduce welfare costs and increase future tax revenue by deploying programs that help these farmers to stay alive, healthy and in business. Healthy farmers can educate their children and well educated children are more likely to pay taxes on larger incomes. They are less likely to add to the welfare burden of the government.
This problem is actually worse than it appears because for every farmer who commits suicide there are many more who flee their farms and become economic refugees in the city. Some of these refugees successfully work their way out of poverty but many end up perpetually stuck.
reference articles
- India’s shocking farmer suicide epidemic Falling into a debt-trap and besieged by bad weather, thousands of farmers are taking their own lives each year.
- Farmer Suicides up 40 percent in a year 2014 – 2015. Sharpest rise in Karnataka.
- Farmer Suicides in India Wikipedia – 18,241 in 2004. Average rate is 1.4% to 1.8% per year. Farmer Suicides account for 11.2% of all suicides in India.
- Monsanto GMO claims it is not cause of India Farmer Suicides – Every 30 minutes an Indian farmer commits suicide. High cost of seeds and reduced crop value have left farmers bankrupt in endless cycle of debt and hopelessness.
- Prince Charles claimed thousands of Indian farmers killing themselves after using GMO crops Illustrates a respected farmer who lost is land due to debt and committed suicide by drinking insecticide. His crop had failed twice in a row. The GMO cause farmers to over borrow. They where susceptible to Boilworms and require twice as much water.
Grow Dryland, A sustainable solution
Grow Dryland was designed as a way to break the escalating debt cycle by ensuring farmers have some income even during drought years while reducing the need for expensive chemical fertilizers and GMO seeds.
Grow Dryland technology and special micro-profiling help grow special trees along the edge of fields that capture nitrogen in the leaves that provide edible fodder and water retaining fertilizer. The process enables trees that would normally be unable to survive at that location to thrive while our technology can keep the seedlings alive for years even through the worst drought.
Due to their deep roots the trees will produce a full crop of leaves even during drought years. During good years the foliage can be harvested as compost and mixed into the soil. Government studies have demonstrated a 400% increase in legume production on the same water budget when the foliage has been mixed into sandy soil. This means one acre of land may produce crop yields similar to what 4 acres produced previously and it can do so with a higher net profit.
During drought years the foliage can be fed directly to sheep, goats and chickens. These animals can provide an income nearly equal to the net profit from traditional crops. During good water years the nitrogen rich foliage can be composted and mixed into topsoil where can reduce the need for commercial fertilizer. This can increase net profit from the crops that succeed. Once every 10 years farmers can harvest the trees for quality lumber they can convert to furniture with simple tools and greatly improve their income stability. They can be used to produce bio-diesel and alcohol that can be sold as fuel for clean cooking. Annual trimmings can produce wood sold for cooking fires. A single farmer with 5 acres can generally support 210 trees while still retaining a majority of their land for traditional crops. High value shade tolerant crops like lettuce can also be grown below the trees.
210 trees can produce 42,000 pounds (2835 cubic foot) dry weight of fodder This is enough to mix 3 inches of matter into 0.26 acre of soil. At this rate it will require 4 years to treat one full acre with enough compost to dramatically increase production of nitrogen loving crops like legumes.
Government studies have shown up to a 400% increase of grass production by weight in volunteer grass growing below the trees. They also found that higher food value grasses volunteer in this area immediately around the trees. This increased grass production can be used to feed animals during good water years while the foliage acts as an emergency food supply during drought years.
Farmers may gain a larger increase by using more of their land to support the trees but by using only the perimeter of each acre we minimize impact on traditional farming crop space. There are several other economic options not quantified here such as where ground cuttings can be used to grow red worms and mushrooms both of which have a high market value.
Economic Impact
The economic impact can be significant. Using the 2004 rate of 18,241 farmer suicides and assuming these farmers had an average of 3 children. Over a 10 year period the suicides could impact 547,230 children. These children will either enter the welfare system or will exist in abject poverty. We assume the state and national government will spend $200 per year on average to support these children over a 6 year period. This yields an estimated 656.7 million USD (43.7 billion INR) welfare liability.
A more significant economic impact comes from lost economic productivity from the affected children. We assume that 5% of the affected children will reach a job that pays $15,000 (998,282 RS) per year. We assume 35% well educated children from stable profitable farmers will reach premium jobs. This yields an increase of 164,169 of premium tax payers. With a 30% marginal tax rate this yields 49.17 billion RS per year in additional taxes or 1.23 trillion INR across an average 25 year working life.
The actual numbers will change based on assumptions about job income obtained by well-educated children and the success ratio of the affected children. The net impact of significant losses in economic production coupled with significant welfare costs will remain true. It seems obvious that it is cheaper to treat this problem at the farm than to wait for the failure.
Paying for a solution
Preliminary analysis indicates that returns from the lumber harvest can pay for the Grow dryland process over a 25 year period with a substantial profit even before we factor in the other benefits such as increased crop yields at lower costs. We need a NGO + government approach that will invest in installing the grow dryland system and help support the farmers for long enough for the process to start yielding the benefits. Re-payment should be based on portion of the farm returns rather than debt. The NGO should set up a co-op to sell higher value crops to market in cities along. They also need a co-op to move high value lumber and hand crafted furniture to western markets. They will need training and audit processes to help the farmers stick with the program.
Farmers & Ranchers Impact of drought
A closely related problem is herding farmers and ranchers who spend decades building a herd of animals where their entire life savings are invested. A multi-year drought occurs so there is less feed is available. They face the choice between A) selling their animals at deep discounts B) Bankrupting themselves buying feed under rapidly escalating prices. C) letting their animals starve hopping for rain to produce new forage before the animals succumb. In many cases they spend all their savings and everything they can borrow buying feed then sell most of their herd at distressed prices so they exit the drought with no animals, no cash and no credit to start over. We have even seen this kind of failure in the USA where Texas ranchers have lost ranches they had been building for generations due to a few years of severe drought causing them to miss critical debt payments.
Grow dryland is a process we designed to allow most farmland to produce some income even during drought years. Grow Dryland can provide food for animals during drought years. This source of food can help them avoid selling the animals at distressed prices. During good years it can provide nitrogen rich compost that can be used to dramatically increase yields by providing natural fertilizer and improve water holding capacity.
Government and NGO help needed
There are many factors involved and no technology will address them all but GrowDryland is a viable way of addressing some of the critical underlying factors. It will require retraining farmers to moderate use of mono-culture and GMO crops.
We need NGO’s to help test and demonstrate the process. The critical step is funding demonstration farms in many villages throughout India where we can test, optimize, document and improve the process. These demonstration sites along with marketing by the NGO will be essential for helping farmers understand why they should adopt new and different processes. We will also need training that can be used to help new farmers reach success with the process.
We need an alternate funding strategy and we think it should be based on a share of the farmers profits rather than debt financing to make the process sustainable. The NGO’s will be essential in developing a self-sustaining finance model the leaves the farmers better off in the long term while yielding a long term net profit that can be used to help fund more farmers.
Thanks Joe Ellsworth
CTO Air Solar Water
Originally published at: https://airsolarwater.com/farmer-suicide-driven-by-accumulated-debt-from-failed-crops-drought-and-desertification/
Desert agriculture, desertification, grow drylandland, soil degradation, Mitigate desertification, poverty