If debates will not shake up the race, nor a guilty verdict in Trump’s trial, what could change the course of the election? A Presidential pardon.

The two leading candidates?in the American presidential race – Democratic incumbent President Joe Biden and former Republican President Donald Trump – have agreed to hold two televised debates, the first in June and the final debate in September.

Trump has accepted a challenge from President Biden to do the debates according to the White House’s proposed ground rules. The debates will be held with no audience and the debate moderators will be drawn from the CNN and ABC news networks. ?The CNN debate will be moderated by Jake Tapper and Dana Bush on June 27 and another on ABC moderated by David Muir and Linsey Davis on Sept. 10, 2024, respectively.

Most significantly, Trump also agreed to the timing of the debates. Never in history have broadcast presidential debates been held so early in the election season.

The thinking behind the early scheduling of the debates is that if President Biden stumbles in the debates, there would still be time for him to recover before election day in November.?

The Biden campaign also called for microphones to be cut off automatically when a speaker’s time is up, to prevent Trump from speaking over the President. It’s unclear if Trump will agree to the muted mic rule.

Almost as soon as the terms of the debates were agreed, Trump began to backtrack on the conditions he had accepted. He has demanded two additional debates be scheduled on NBC and Fox News, the latter proposed to be held on October 2.[1]

Trump has further insisted Biden take a drug test prior to the debates.[2] He has maintained that Biden’s performance during the State of the Union address in March was enhanced by drugs.

There’s no evidence Biden uses drugs.[3]

In a taunt, Trump, who is 77, claims that President Biden is mentally unfit. “He can’t put two sentences together.” He has also called the 81-year old President “a doddering old man.”[4] ??

Apparently, according to Trump’s view, Biden is more than capably of speaking coherently when on performance-enhancing drugs. ?Not to mention running a “deep state” campaign to put the former President behind bars.

American Leadership Review believes it is highly unlikely either presidential debate will be held as planned. Trump will use as an excuse the President’s refusal to take a drug test.

Meanwhile, Trump’s trial for 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the first degree, in violation of New York Penal Law, is winding down next week. His defence is expected to argue in closing arguments that Trump did not knowingly approve of filing false documents in order to cover up a scandal on the eve of the 2016 presidential election.

The nine personal checks Trump ?signed which were listed in business records as “retainer” payments to Michael Cohen, his former lawyer and political “fixer”, for hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels, were intended to shield his family from the scandal, not to influence the outcome of the election, his lawyers will say.

To make these claims appear credible and sow a reasonable doubt in the jury’s mind about Trump’s guilt, the defence must make Trump ?appear to be a man not in total control of his personal finances. ?The “very stable genius” Trump has called himself may need to be put in question for the former President to escape a guilty verdict.

To American Leadership Review, it appears unlikely the jury in the case will bring back a verdict of ‘guilty’. The reason stems from the difficulty of establishing beyond a reasonable doubt Trump’s intent, when much of the first-hand testimony about his intent comes from convicted felon Michael Cohen. Only one juror needs to hold out from declaring the former President ‘guilty’ for the trial to be declared a mistrial.

Failure to convict will cheer Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) supporters and boost his standing in the polls in the short run. In the long run, it may serve to clarify the race for the White House.

So far, Trump’s legal cases have boosted his campaign’s fund-raising, while doing nothing to hurt his chances for reelection.

Instead of drawing a sharp distinction between the two candidates, the trials pit Trump against the American justice system, and provide him with an abstraction – the “deep state”, the FBI and U.S. Justice Department, and the Courts – rather than against President Biden directly.

The trials serve as at best a distraction and at worse as a way of rallying voters to Trump’s cause.

Following a “hung jury” and declaration of a mistrial, Bider would do well to consider pardoning Trump for the alleged crimes he committed during and after his presidency. This would clear the deck and take wind out of the MAGA movement’s sails.

For Biden to take this course of action he would need to reverse his hands-off approach to Trump’s legal cases, something he is loath to do.? A Presidential pardon would do more to shake up a race he is at present losing than any debate.

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[1] Brian Bushard (May 17, 2024). Trump Wants Two More Debates—On NBC And Fox—Despite Biden’s Pledge For Just Two. Forbes.

[2] Tara Suter (May 18, 2024). Trump demands drug test for Biden ahead of first debate. The Hill. ?https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4672061-donald-trump-demands-drug-test-for-joe-biden-ahead-debate/

[3] Sara Dorn (April 4, 2024). Trump Suggests—Without Evidence—Biden Was ‘Higher Than A Kite’ During State Of The Union, Calls For Pre-Debate Drug Test. https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/04/04/trump-suggests-without-evidence-biden-was-higher-than-a-kite-during-state-of-the-union-calls-for-pre-debate-drug-test/

[4] Sara Dorn (May 17, 2024). Biden-Trump Debates: What To Know As Trump Pushes For 2 More Faceoffs. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/05/17/biden-trump-debates-what-to-know-as-trump-pushes-for-2-more-faceoffs/