The Death of Spontaneity: How AGI Could Kill the Joy of Travel.

When you get to my age, time speeds up and increases in value. I have always valued time highly, certainly more than money, but these days, where I spend time, with whom, and what I do with time are paramount. As crazy as the world has become and the speed of development messing with even the most clever people, I am not sure we have the slightest grasp of what happens to the concept of time when we reach AGI in 2027.

Will we reach AGI in 2027? I do not know. We are still determining if we will ever reach it, never mind when. However, I am placing my bet on yes, we will get it, and it will happen in 2027. If it happens in 2029,2033 or 2040, it does not matter in the greater scheme. Understanding what that event means for people, life, and business does matter. Today, no person in the World fully knows what it means as the law of unintended consequences will be optimised like never before.

To be clear, hundreds of people are way more clever than I am in this area. Some still think we are decades away, and others believe it can never be achieved. I am not one of them.

AGI promises advanced human-level intelligence across a broad spectrum of cognitive abilities at speed and scale. This leap forward will revolutionise how we conceptualise, plan, and experience travel.

I am suggesting ten scenarios that illustrate the transformative potential of AGI in travel and tourism plus seven more that will make you question my sanity.

Stupidly, I am also ranking them from 1-10 on a scale of 1, which is very unlikely, to 10, it is going to happen, and I am betting the house on it. These rankings are based on when AGI happens, be that 2027, 2040, or 2090.

1. Hyper-Personalised Travel Experiences

AGI will elevate personalisation to unprecedented levels. By analysing vast amounts of data - from social media activity to biometric responses - AGI systems will craft bespoke travel experiences that align perfectly with individual preferences, even anticipating desires travellers still need to recognise consciously. This is where Amazon aims to get to eventually—sending you what you need before you order it. They are close, once the cost of returns is managed to an acceptable level this will start to happen. Imagine an AI that doesn't just book your preferred seat on a flight but designs an entire journey tailored to your historical data and your subconscious wishes. I have many issues with this efficiency of the travel experience as my personal bias is random travel with random travel experiences. However, for business travel 100%, I will be happy to have my personal AI agent to plan, book and guide.

Likelihood of happening 9/10

2. Real-Time Destination Management

AGI will enable destinations to manage tourism flows with pinpoint accuracy. By processing real-time data from countless sources - including social media, weather patterns, local events, vehicles, airports and economic indicators - AGI systems will dynamically adjust marketing efforts, pricing strategies, and local services to optimise visitor experiences and financial benefits while minimising environmental impact. This could mean automatically implementing visitor caps at popular sites during peak times or instantly redirecting tourism promotion to underutilised city areas. To grasp this, you need to understand the speed and scale at which data can be analysed in an AGI world.

Likelihood of happening is 4/10 ( My faith in those managing destinations is driving my score)

3. Predictive Crisis Management

The ability of AGI to process and analyse global data streams will revolutionise crisis management in the travel industry. As we all know, the travel industry is hugely vulnerable to all sorts of disasters, be they weather, economic, or health. We have seen them all, and more are coming. These systems will predict potential disruptions - from natural disasters to political unrest - and model complex scenarios to determine optimal responses. For instance, an AGI might foresee a brewing health crisis and automatically warn countries, destinations and travel businesses about the potential.

Likelihood of happening is 6/10

4. Seamless Multi-Modal Transport

AGI will orchestrate truly seamless multi-modal transport experiences. By integrating data from various transport providers, weather systems, and real-time traffic information, AGI will create fluid journeys that adapt on the fly. A traveller might start their journey on a bike, switch to a train, then a shared autonomous vehicle, with each transition timed perfectly and automatically adjusted for any delays or changes in weather.

Most folks today do not know autonomous vehicles are up and running in dozens of cities

Likelihood of happening is 7/10

5. Virtual Travel Companions

AGI will power virtual travel companions that go far beyond current digital assistants. These AI entities will possess deep knowledge of destinations, cultural nuances, and individual traveller preferences. They'll offer real-time translation, historical context, and personalised recommendations, adapting their personality and interaction style to suit the traveller. Imagine discussing the Renaissance with an AI that can switch between emulating a 15th-century artist and a modern art historian while guiding you through the streets of Florence. Now again, I have serious worries about this as I am firmly in the camp that travel should be about human interaction, and we already have an epidemic of loneliness and people being addicted to digital screens. I hope builders of this technology build in human interactions.

Likelihood of happening is 7/10

6. Autonomous Travel Design

AGI will revolutionise the complex task of trip planning. These systems will handle logistics and design journeys that balance novelty, comfort, and personal growth. An AGI travel planner might craft a trip that challenges a traveller's preconceptions, introduces them to new experiences aligned with their values, and ensures moments of reflection and learning while staying within budget and time constraints. The vast landscape of current builders of trip planning tools need to think about the lifetime value of these tools. They struggle to get scale, and top-of-funnel AI Agents will wipe them out.

Likelihood of happening is 9/10

7. Dynamic Pricing and Revenue Management

AGI will transform revenue management in the travel industry. By analysing global economic trends, consumer behaviour patterns, and countless other factors, AGI systems will implement dynamic pricing strategies that maximise profitability while ensuring value for travellers. This could lead to highly personalised pricing, where a hotel room or flight ticket costs are tailored to each individual based on their perceived value and willingness to pay. We already have versions of this in flights and hotels, but this will extend to all parts of travel. The sector that gets most of my passion and drive tours and activities has the most to gain here.

Likelihood of happening 10/10

8. Enhanced Sustainability

AGI will play a crucial role in making travel more sustainable. It has to, as the growth in travel will leave behind all current attempts at making travel sustainable. By optimising resource allocation, predicting environmental impacts, and designing circular economy solutions, AGI will dramatically help the industry reduce its carbon footprint. For example, an AGI might redesign airline routes and flight schedules to minimise fuel consumption across the entire global network or develop closed-loop systems for hotels that eliminate waste and reduce energy use. Beyond my scope is AGI's impact on energy production, which is transformative for the earth and all that live on it. Travel impacts may become irrelevant if we solve the energy production challenge. I believe we will, but I need to know more about it.

Likelihood of happening is 6/10

9. Immersive Cultural Exchanges

AGI will facilitate more profound, more meaningful cultural exchanges. By analysing vast amounts of cultural data, including historical records, contemporary media, and real-time social interactions, AGI will help travellers engage with local cultures more authentically and respectfully. This could manifest as AR overlays providing real-time cultural context or AI-mediated conversations that help travellers understand and navigate complex cultural norms.

All of this is totally possible, but I am going to say this is not going to happen, as people are people no matter what technology eventually ends up doing, and I have a bad feeling that AGI will advance the destruction of culture rather than my more hopeful first paragraph.

Likelihood of happening is 1/10

10. Predictive Maintenance and Safety

In my days as a tour operator, we had much gear that needed maintenance, including boats, vehicles, ropes, harnesses, and so on. That is small scale compared to ships, planes etc. AGI will usher in a new era of predictive maintenance and safety. By analysing data from sensors, historical performance records, and even subtle changes in passenger behaviour, AGI systems will accurately predict equipment failures and safety risks. This could mean airlines replacing parts before they fail, hotels addressing structural issues before they become noticeable, or cruise ships rerouting to avoid dangerous weather patterns long before they form.

Likelihood of happening is 8/10

This is where it all gets a bit more strange.

This next section is more focused on the tours and activities sector of the travel industry and comes with a warning that they will push the boundaries of what you think is possible. We are in a period of history when it is more important than ever to think about pushing the boundaries of what is possible. On the other hand, I may spend too much time reading very complex beyond my entire understanding of AI papers.

11. Neuro-Tailored Experiences

AGI will usher in an era of experiences tailored to individual neural patterns. By analysing brain activity, AGI systems will craft tours that resonate with each traveller's unique cognitive and emotional makeup. Imagine a museum tour that adapts in real-time, emphasising artworks that elicit the strongest neurological responses from the individual. This level of personalisation goes beyond mere preferences, tapping into travellers' subconscious desires and interests.

Likelihood of happening is 1/10

12. Time-Bending Historical Immersions

AGI will revolutionise historical tours by creating fully immersive experiences that transcend time. Using vast historical databases and advanced simulation capabilities, AGI will generate hyper-realistic environments, allowing travellers to enter different eras. Picture walking the streets of ancient Rome, engaging in conversations with AI-powered historical figures, and experiencing historical events as they unfold. These experiences will blur the lines between education, entertainment, and time travel.

Likelihood of happening is 1/10

13. Ethical Dilemma Tourism

AGI will facilitate a new form of philosophical tourism centred around ethical dilemmas. These experiences will place travellers in complex simulated scenarios, challenging their moral compass and decision-making skills. For instance, participants might navigate the complexities of resource allocation in a struggling community or grapple with the trolley problem in a realistic setting. These tours will offer profound insights into ethics, culture, and human nature.

Likelihood of happening is 2/10 ( but I so want it to be 10/10)

14. Extreme Environment Replication

AGI will enable the creation of experiences that replicate extreme or inaccessible environments. Using advanced sensory manipulation and environmental simulation, travellers could experience the harsh conditions of climbing Everest or being on Mars, the crushing depths of the Mariana Trench, or the inside of a volcano. These tours will push the boundaries of human experience, offering thrills and scientific insights without the associated risks.

Likelihood of happening is 3/10 (Although I am focused on tourism, the need for the above comes from many different sectors)

15. Consciousness Expansion Journeys

Leveraging its deep understanding of human cognition, AGI will design experiences aimed at expanding consciousness. These tours might involve carefully crafted sequences of sensory inputs, guided meditations, and cognitive challenges designed to alter perception and enhance mental capabilities. Travellers could experience synaesthesia, explore altered states of consciousness, or even simulate the effects of psychedelic substances in controlled, legal environments.

Likelihood of happening is 1/10 ( I hope it stays as one as humans are addictive creatures, and this is a drug like no other)

16. Parallel Life Simulations

AGI will offer the ultimate "what if" experience by allowing travellers to live out alternative life paths. These immersive simulations will enable individuals to experience how their lives might have unfolded had they made different choices or been born in different circumstances. From career paths not taken to roads not travelled, these experiences will provide profound insights into the nature of choice, fate, and identity.

Likelihood of happening is 1/10 ( Again, other industries will likely be much more interested in pushing this than the travel industry )

17. Extinct Ecosystem Safari

AGI's vast knowledge of palaeontology and ecology will allow for the creation of tours showcasing extinct ecosystems. Travellers could walk through accurate recreations of prehistoric jungles, interact with long-extinct species, and witness key moments in Earth's biological history. These experiences will offer unparalleled educational value and a visceral understanding of evolution and biodiversity.

Likelyhood of happening is 3/10 ( Again, I think this will be pushed by sectors of science who have more to gain than just a tourism experience)

If you think these are all a bit crazy, I am with you, but I have seen enough crazy things in life happen to understand that we humans are not that good at saying what will and what will not happen. I hope they challenge your current notions of what constitutes a "tour" or "experience", pushing into realms previously the domain of science fiction just like the computer and the mobile phone once were.

This is not an exhaustive list by any means. I have dozens more that have come from an exercise I have been conducting on business models of the future in travel and tourism.

I am sure many of you have read this far and are considering the significant ethical and philosophical questions these scenarios raise. How will we ensure the psychological safety of participants in deeply immersive or consciousness-altering experiences? What are the implications of experiences that blur the lines between reality and simulation?

I do not have answers to these critical questions as I spend my "time" focused on what I think will happen and not how we as a society deal with the outcomes.

The one thing I do think about is the potential for addiction to these hyper-stimulating experiences. Could travellers become dependent on AGI-crafted realities, finding the real world dull in comparison?

So what should we be doing?

So even if 30% of the above comes to be, how should travel businesses prepare?

It will require a fundamental rethinking of what it means to create and curate travel experiences. The focus will shift from logistics and information provision to experience design, ethical considerations, and the delicate balance between technological enhancement and authentic human connection.

Moving into this new era, we must enthusiastically and cautiously approach these technologies. The tours and experiences of the future have the potential to be transformative, not just for the travel industry but for human consciousness itself. It's up to us to shape this future responsibly, ensuring that as we push the boundaries of experience. Keeping sight of the core values that enrich travel, such as curiosity, connection, discovery, and randomness, must not just be considered but enhanced.

I repeat often that the most critical question in travel is what AGI will not do, not what it will.

As industry professionals, we must start preparing for this AGI-driven future now. Most importantly, we must engage in thoughtful discussions about how we want to shape this new era of travel. Then, we will all be better positioned to decide what infrastructure and skills to invest in.

My extensive list of potential business models has more questions than answers on each one, but the foundation I am building on is community

I believe that is both a moat and a launchpad for multiple B2B future requirements.

I will discuss future travel industry scenarios with others during the following autumn events.

Sept Web 3 In Travel

Oct Travel Unchained 2024

Nov Tourpreneur Connect

Nov Tourism Think Tank

So, will AGI kill the Joy of travel and be the death of spontaneity?

Pete