“The Death” of Public Transport? Huh... really?

“The report of my death was an exaggeration”, wrote Mark Twain, in a 1897 letter to a reporter who had asked him about rumors that he was on his deathbed in London. More than a century later, in countless COVID-related posts on social media, several mobility "commenters" are announcing the same fate for Public Transport.

 Some of them point to recent "statistics". Numbers and graphics always impress us with that kind of "fact-feeling", right? But beware. For example, some point to a spike in car sales in China right after the quarantine – yes, some consumers may be fear-driven, but let’s not forget that buying cars was not allowed for over a couple of months, so we shouldn’t be surprised if that accumulated demand (at least) contributed to a peak in sales right after they were allowed to resume.

Others point out to “fear of contagion” expressed in surveys. Yes, that fear is real, and yes, it will probably lead to behavior changes in the short term. But how long will that fear last? We cannot know, and we certainly won’t know it by asking that question in times of panic. And by the way, who are we surveying? Numbers and graphics on behavior change provided by tech companies like Apple reflect the behavior of their respective clients, not of a representative sample of the population (at least until everybody owns an iPhone).

But it doesn't stop here.

Even without mentioning numbers, it seems consensual to talk about “fear” and a “loss of trust” in public transport. Really? That’s one of the most unfair and irrational outcomes of this crisis. For three reasons, I would argue.

First, because if we look at this crisis as a “stress test” of our urban mobility systems, there is one clear conclusion to take: Public Transport made it through the test, and with honors. It keeps running and running, providing service to many lower-income essential workers, who often remain invisible in the public eye – stocking shelves and working cashiers at supermarkets, providing home support to the elderly, independent living assistance to persons with disabilities, cleaning our streets and office buildings, and more, much more.

Second, how realistic is the idea that, once relieved from quarantine restrictions, everybody will rush to their car’s protective bubble? Some will do, definitely. Not sure, though, how many, and for how long. In the first place, how many will be able to afford it? Let’s not forget there’s an economic recession looming in the horizon, which will cut jobs and family incomes – driving will hardly become a feasible option for many. Show me wrong, a year from now.

Third, because Public Transport is not where the real danger comes from. And as we exit the lockdown and plan for the future of urban mobility, we must distinguish between what helps the virus spread, and what makes it deadly. On the spread – It may seem “natural” that buses and subways help spread the virus more than private cars, but that “common sense” is actually disputed by some researchers. What is clearly emerging as a major factor is (guess what?) air pollution. A clear correlation has been found between dense air pollution and the mortality caused by the virus. Yes, correlation is not causation, but bear in mind we already knew that exposure to chronic air pollution causes respiratory problems that make people more vulnerable.

So, instead of speculating about a “probable” avoidance of Public Transport, we actually should be planning for more. And to be practical, we should focus on three immediate challenges.

First, we must help public transport operators fix the huge holes blown open in their balance sheets by this crisis. There was a sharp drop in revenues, in many cases running for over two months, with no mercy for the fixed costs these companies have. Plus, the lines that kept running did so with low occupancy, and that has got to hurt. We have to make sure these losses don’t leave permanent scars in the financial health of the operators – or they’ll be limping right when we most need them to be "pushing the wagon" for modal shift.

Second, we must acknowledge that ‘established’ measures to prevent contagion imply higher operational costs. Social distancing requirements will significantly reduce the capacity of the vehicles, and that will have to be compensated by higher frequencies, all of this at lower, much lower revenues per kilometer. Not to mention all the cleaning and disinfection efforts, also raising maintenance costs.

Finally, we must help public transport authorities and operators regain the initiative in the sustainability agenda, and keep up the effort of reequipping their fleets with electric vehicles. The last thing we need is for public money to be thrown (again) down the fossil fuel drain. And take note, there will be a strong push for that, like a knee-jerk reaction.

Of course, as the saying goes, death for some means fortune for others. So, beware sustainable-mobility advocates. Think twice (or more) before you engage in groundless techy gossip about how COVID spells death for public transport – you can make it become a self-fulfilling prophecy.