The death of the EV Semi-Truck in the Ports of NJ/NY.

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As of March 2023, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) reported having over 16,000 registered truckers in their SeaLink database. As of January 2025, there are 16 electric trucks registered to service the Ports of New York and New Jersey, representing 0.05% of the total authorized trucks in the Drayage Truck Registry (DTR). ?That’s it!

The cost of an electric semi-truck ranges from $400,000 to $500,000 each, depending on the model and features. ?The average cost of a new diesel semi-truck is typically around $150,000, depending on the model and features. ?

Let's calculate the costs if we are replacing the 16000 trucks that are now servicing the Ports of NJ/NY with new electric vs new diesel semi-trucks.

1. Upfront Cost of New Diesel Trucks

The average cost of a new diesel semi-truck is typically around $150,000.

• Total cost for 16,000 new diesel trucks: 16,000 trucks × $150,000 = $2.4 billion

2. Fuel Costs for Diesel Trucks

For new diesel trucks, fuel consumption remains significant. As mentioned earlier, a diesel truck typically consumes about 20,000 gallons of diesel annually, and the cost of diesel is around $4.00 per gallon.

• Annual fuel cost per diesel truck: 20,000 gallons × $4.00 = $80,000 per year

For 16,000 trucks:

• Total annual fuel cost for 16,000 diesel trucks: 16,000 trucks × $80,000 = $1.28 billion per year

3. Maintenance Costs for Diesel Trucks

New diesel trucks still require regular maintenance, though they will have slightly lower maintenance costs compared to older trucks. On average, new diesel trucks could have annual maintenance costs of $10,000 to $12,000.

Let's use an average of $11,000 in maintenance costs per truck per year.

• Annual maintenance cost per diesel truck: $11,000

For 16,000 trucks:

• Total annual maintenance cost for 16,000 diesel trucks: 16,000 trucks × $11,000 = $176 million per year

4. Total Annual Costs (Fuel + Maintenance) for New Diesel Trucks

• Fuel cost: $1.28 billion
• Maintenance cost: $176 million
• Total annual cost: $1.28 billion + $176 million = $1.456 billion per year for 16,000 diesel trucks.

5. Return on Investment (ROI) for Diesel Trucks

If you were to replace the trucks with new diesel models instead of electric, the ROI would primarily be based on the initial purchase cost and the ongoing operational costs (fuel and maintenance). However, in this case, there's no long-term savings from switching to electric, so the key factor is just the total cost of ownership.

• Upfront cost of 16,000 new diesel trucks: $2.4 billion
• Annual cost (fuel + maintenance): $1.456 billion per year

The main financial burden here is the fuel costs, which will continue year over year.

6. Comparison with Electric Trucks

To compare the two options:

• New diesel trucks would cost $2.4 billion upfront, and incur $1.456 billion in annual operating costs (fuel + maintenance).
• Electric trucks would cost between $6.4 billion and $8 billion upfront but would result in $1.028 billion in annual savings due to fuel and maintenance savings.

Conclusion:

• Initial Investment: Diesel: $2.4 billion Electric: $6.4 billion to $8 billion
• Annual Operating Costs (Fuel + Maintenance): Diesel: $1.456 billion per year Electric: $1.028 billion in savings (compared to diesel)

Over Time:

• Replacing with Diesel Trucks: After 1 year, you'd be facing $1.456 billion in ongoing annual costs. Over time, fuel and maintenance costs will keep accumulating year after year, with no savings potential from fuel and maintenance as seen with electric trucks.
• Replacing with Electric Trucks: Even though the upfront cost of electric trucks is higher, the operational savings on fuel and maintenance could lead to substantial savings over the long term. You would save about $1.028 billion annually, leading to a break-even point for electric trucks in about 6 to 8 years. Ouch!!!!

A Reevaluation of Long-Term Benefits

1. The Reality of Electric Truck Manufacturing Challenges

The electric truck market faces severe manufacturing constraints and risks, particularly in light of Nikola’s bankruptcy and the struggles of other manufacturers. Even Tesla, with its large financial backing and established infrastructure, has faced production delays with the Tesla Semi, and its ability to scale production rapidly is still in question. This reality means that electric trucks might not be readily available in the quantities needed for a large-scale transition at the ports.

• Manufacturers like Nikola and Rivian have failed or face challenges to scale, which significantly limits the number of viable manufacturers in the space.
• If there is no reliable manufacturer to support a transition, the ports could end up with a stranded investment in vehicles that cannot be serviced, repaired, or replaced as needed.

2. Dependence on Government Subsidies

The government subsidies that have helped support the electric vehicle market are crucial to its current state. However, the long-term survival of electric truck manufacturers without these subsidies is uncertain.

• The financial viability of many electric truck companies is tied to incentives, and if those were scaled back or removed, many manufacturers (including Nikola) might struggle to remain operational.
• If subsidies dry up, the cost of electric trucks will remain high, and fleet operators may be reluctant to invest in electric vehicles when diesel trucks are significantly cheaper and more reliable in the short term.

3. Maintenance and Service Infrastructure Limitations

Even if electric trucks were available at scale, the service infrastructure to support such a large fleet is still in its infancy. Diesel trucks have an established network of service centers, parts suppliers, and mechanics. In contrast, the electric truck industry still lacks widespread infrastructure, including:

• Charging networks that can handle large fleets at key logistical points like ports.
• Mechanics and service centers trained to repair and maintain electric trucks.
• Supply chains for parts, particularly for batteries, which are critical components and face shortages.

If the maintenance infrastructure is underdeveloped, the trucks could experience higher downtime, costly repairs, and longer service times, impacting the ports’ operations and making electric trucks an unreliable choice in the long run.

4. Charging and Range Limitations

Charging infrastructure is one of the biggest bottlenecks for electric trucks, especially in port areas where fast charging is critical for continuous operations. The current electric trucks also face challenges when it comes to range:

• Charging speed and availability: The charging network for heavy-duty trucks needs to be far more robust to handle the daily needs of a fleet of 16,000 trucks. Without fast-charging stations located strategically near ports, the downtime for charging could become a major operational bottleneck, which diesel trucks do not face.
• Range limitations: While electric truck range is improving, they still do not match the long-distance capabilities of diesel trucks. This is especially critical for truck fleets that operate in logistics hubs like the Port of New York and New Jersey, where trucks need to travel long distances between the port and various warehouses or distribution centers.

5. Financial Risks of Transition

From a purely financial perspective, the cost of transitioning to a 100% electric truck fleet, without reliable manufacturers, subsidies, or proper support, becomes a high-risk proposition.

• High upfront costs: As mentioned, electric trucks cost significantly more than diesel trucks—around $500,000 per unit compared to $150,000 for a new diesel truck. In a situation where production delays are common and there are uncertainties about the availability of the trucks, the ROI becomes more difficult to justify.
• Long payback periods: Even with the potential for fuel savings (which is the primary driver of long-term cost reductions), the return on investment (ROI) could be stretched out over decades due to the delays in truck availability, the risks associated with unreliable manufacturers, and the challenges of building out the required infrastructure.
• Uncertain resale values: As we’ve seen with the struggles of manufacturers, electric trucks could suffer from depreciation at a faster rate than diesel trucks, especially if the market experiences a bottleneck in availability or if new, more efficient models come to market quickly.

Conclusion: The Short-Term vs. Long-Term Viability of Electric Trucks

While electric trucks might seem like a promising long-term solution for reducing emissions and fuel costs, the immediate reality is that the industry is far from ready to support large-scale transitions like the one required at the Ports of New York and New Jersey. The high upfront costs, manufacturing constraints, lack of reliable manufacturers, and uncertain service infrastructure make electric trucks a risky investment in the short term.

In the short term:

• Diesel trucks remain a reliable and cost-effective choice for large port operations, where downtime and unpredictable repair costs cannot be afforded.
• The costs and risks associated with electric trucks (high upfront prices, unreliable manufacturers, and lack of infrastructure) make a full transition infeasible in the near future.

In the long term:

• The electric truck market will likely continue to evolve, and advancements in battery technology, charging infrastructure, and cost reductions may make electric trucks a more attractive option. However, this will depend heavily on the stability of the industry, the emergence of reliable manufacturers, and government support to help shoulder the financial burden of a transition.

Given the current state of the electric truck market, a hybrid approach—where the port uses a mix of new diesel trucks and small-scale electric trucks—might be the most realistic solution. This allows the port to reduce emissions gradually while not taking on the large financial risks associated with an immediate, full-scale transition to electric trucks.

So is this the Death of the EV Semi Truck?

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