Dear Maritime: Let’s not write off Artificial Intelligence (AI) when we’re just starting to use it

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been around since the 1940s and has been used in industries for decades; but just as we start to see some applications of AI in maritime, the industry raises the hurricane warning flags, as if to stop all innovation in its tracks.??Recent articles in?gCaptain ?and?Tradewinds ? may have an unintended chilling effect on the adoption of AI and other new technologies in maritime.

All technologies have both clear benefits and unintended consequences…

But first, some perspective on technologies and how we use them.??The adoption of new technologies has been a major driving force in the progress of human society. Technologies such as plastics, the automobiles and artificial intelligence (AI) have had a profound impact on our lives.??

But their use has also resulted in unintended and unforeseen consequences that can have significant negative effects on society.??In fact, sometimes the very benefits of those technologies are the same factors that drive negative effects.??

Take plastics.??Plastics have been hailed as a revolutionary technology that has transformed many aspects of our lives. From packaging to construction materials, plastics have become an indispensable part of modern society.??Plastic is inexpensive to make, can be used in thousands of products and lasts forever.??Look around your office or the train you are on right now and see where plastic is used.?

It’s everywhere.??

And that’s good.??Among its many uses, plastic helps absorb shock (e.g., bumpers) and makes things lighter (e.g., things that fly).??Imagine how much an automobile would weigh, or an airplane, if we removed the plastic???Cars would be so heavy that they’d be too expensive for most people and would require even more fuel to propel them.??Planes would not get off the ground.??

…but how we use a technology is not the fault of the technology itself

However, plastic waste has become a major environmental challenge, causing harm to wildlife and marine ecosystems. The manufacture of plastic and its disposal contributes to greenhouse gas emissions, further exacerbating the global climate crisis.??The same benefits of plastic—light, moldable and lasts forever—are also why it can be dangerous:??Plastic waste finds its way into the food chain when animals ingest microscopic shards of it and larger products find their way into rivers, lakes or floating in the ocean (see the?Great Pacific Garbage Patch .)

But that’s not the fault of plastic.??It’s the fault of how society has chosen to use it. Should we reduce our dependence on plastic???Of course, we should, and that transformation is underway.???But plastic as a technology is not the culprit.

Another example. The automobile, a transformative technology that has brought unprecedented mobility and freedom of movement, has also increased air pollution, traffic congestion, and—because nearly all automobiles burn fossil fuels—has contributed to the global climate crisis.??Plus, people kill each other and themselves when they get behind the wheel, particularly when they are in an impaired state.??

But that’s not the fault of the automobile.??It’s the fault of how society has chosen to use automobiles. Should we reduce our dependence on automobiles (and other forms of fossil-fuel based transportation)???Of course, we should, and that transformation is underway.??But the automobile as a technology is not the culprit.

Using ChatGPT for weather routing is a dumb idea

Now, on to AI.???

As I mentioned, AI has been around for decades and has improved healthcare outcomes, boosted productivity, and facilitated scientific research.??The adoption of AI technology has already revolutionized the way we live and work.?

However, the deployment of AI has raised concerns about job displacement and a widening skills gap. Additionally, the use of AI in decision-making processes can result in unintentional bias and discriminatory practices.?

The articles mentioned above point to the specific maritime decision-making case of using AI in weather routing and navigation.??The piece in?gCaptain ?tells of?

“…a troubling report from an American captain, who claims that a shipowner utilized an AI bot, potentially ChatGPT, to suggest modifications to the ship’s voyage plan. While the captain chose not to adhere to the recommendations, they are concerned that others may not exercise the same caution.”

In the context of these types of customer-facing chat bots, ChatGPT is a baby in its crib.??It will grow up one day to become a productive and effective tool, but right now…to use it to help with ship navigation is the height of irresponsibility. Thankfully the captain recognized the situation and acted accordingly.

Let me be very clear.??The employee at that shipowner should be severely reprimanded if not relieved of his / her duties.??That was just a dumb move.

Causing panic about AI can only suppress innovation

In the?Tradewinds ?article, an executive from a maritime weather provider cautioned that ‘over-reliance on automated routing could lead to sinkings.’??He further elaborated, “If you trust 100% in automated routing solutions, there are going to be problems.”

Come on.??

No one in maritime is suggesting that anyone rely 100% on automated routing.??Is any provider of such services recommending that???I know my company, OrbitMI , makes no such claims.?In fact, we make it clear that when using our AI routing solution (Orbit Weather+, offered with our partner DTN ) the captain ALWAYS has final say on which route to take.??We agree that there should always be a “human in the loop,” which is why the solution leverages human weather forecasters as well.??

But neither of the situations described in the articles above are the fault of AI.??It’s the fault of how society has chosen to use AI. We need to have a robust conversation on AI and how we use it in maritime.??But AI as a technology is not the culprit.?

Remember the positive

There are many valid, safe and productive maritime applications to AI.??We just need to develop them.??As one executive with experience in both AI and maritime told me:?

"Innovation nearly always starts with consumer adoption and then proceeds to industrial and professional adoption. Many of the great successes in the last 30 years in tech have followed this pathway.'"

His advice:??Watch closely the way people are trying to use ChatGPT on the consumer side.??It might reveal potential uses for maritime.?

Here’s what really worries me.???Human beings are hard wired to remember bad news over good news.??As members of the maritime industry read these stories, they may only remember the bad stuff.??They’ll remember the knucklehead who used ChatGPT, or they’ll draw a conclusion that “AI will cause sinkings.”??Therefore, they’ll choose to NOT adopt or experiment with AI. Or other technologies.

That is not good for maritime.?

We have only just begun to innovate with AI

What I’m hoping they remember are the more level-headed and nuanced conclusions from both articles:

From Tradewinds:

Although difficult to systemise nuances of weather behaviour, [the executive] said he expected automated forecasts to improve over time.

From gCaptain:

AI has the potential to discover hazards and opportunities for risk mitigation in voyage planning that humans may overlook. gCaptain has received reports of ChatGPT helping to identify potential hazards not considered during the voayge planning process. Preventing the use of AI altogether – or just hampering its use with comments like “I don’t trust those robots” – could dissuade ship captains from using it and discovering a new solution that will keep his crew safe.?

Amen.??Indeed, the dynamic behind AI is that it gets “smarter” over time.??Its applications will improve the more they are used.??Even weather forecasters.??Does anyone doubt that weather forecasters will use AI to improve the quality of their work????Even so, that does NOT mean the maritime industry will eliminate humans from important decision-making, either now or in the future.??

Does anyone doubt that weather forecasters will use AI to improve the quality of their work??

Let’s continue to experiment and adopt AI and other technologies to help the industry become safer, more efficient, profitable, and sustainable.???Let’s have the important rational conversations?now?so we can ensure maritime uses AI intelligently, ethically and safely.

I’ll be at #CMAShipping this week.??If you’ll be there, I’d love to continue the conversation in person.