No Deal Brexit Looks Favourite

The announcement today that the UK will end free movement on Brexit Day (31 October), on top of the earlier announcement of withdrawal of free healthcare to citizens of other EU member States from the same date, is another clear signal as to where the UK Government is headed with Brexit.

UK seeking a new deal?

Quite how such moves will help Mr Johnson Esq. reach a fresh, better and great deal for the UK before 31 October 2019 I do not know. I guess the fact that this new fresh, better and great deal has not been set out as yet by the UK does not help, but I am sure Mr Johnson Esq. will think something up on the plane on his way to another futile EU summit.

The state of opposition to a "No Deal" Brexit

There is growing opposition to the current UK Government's clear intention to deliver a "No Deal" Brexit, no matter the damage to the UK. I do not believe that No Deal is a negotiating stance - I think instead it is the intent of the UK Government, and that it is using the time to 31 October to put more plans to address with No Deal disruption in the UK rather than, as it was supposed to, seeking a fresh agreement.

As for coming up with solutions for Ireland so that it can honour the Good Friday Agreement - I am sorry Mr Tusk, the UK has wasted the time granted much as I suspect you expected when you issued the warning. I do not believe that the UK Government intends to honour the Good Friday Agreement (expect specific problems if trading across the border in Ireland).

Unfortunately the political opposition is still fragmented and whilst on paper there are now the numbers in parliament to bring down the UK Government on No Deal, whether they can get around party and personality differences is another thing.

"Collaborators" seeking a further extension

On the any further extension - the opponents of No Deal Brexit are expecting that, if they are successful, the UK will be granted yet another Brexit extension. I wouldn't be so sure.

Perhaps those politicians have tested the water with the EU27, and that may be why Mr Johnson Esq has called his opponents "collaborators", a quite deliberate reference (intended in my view to be offensive) to those who worked with the Nazis in World War II which is so beloved of supporters of a No Deal Brexit. The "Blitz Spirit" is often quoted.

The "Blitz Spirit"

My late mother suffered post-traumatic stress disorder throughout her adult life from the bombing of Coventry during World War II when she was a child.

My late father was a military policemen and was posted to Germany which, amongst other things, meant being involved in the Berlin Airlift.

The mass graves from the bombing of Coventry are ten minutes’ walk from my house.

I lived next door to a lady who had been crippled and left in pain for the rest of her life after being blown over her house (they were sheltering in their garage) during one of the Coventry blitzes.

The blitz was a period of significant civil disorder, with looting and rape common.

And Coventry's bombed out cathedral still stands as a monument to the horrors of war.

I am not alone in having a far from rose tinted view of World War II and feel physically sick at how easily it is used as a positive evocative term by those advocating a No Deal Brexit.

Closing parliament to force through Brexit

On top of this, the UK Government has made it clear that it will side step or even shut parliament to prevent parliament from interfering with its plans - given that the UK sovereignty lies with parliament, this signals no less than a coup.

There are also legal challenges planned; I have no idea if they will succeed nor even if they will be decided before Brexit Day.

Can a No Deal Brexit be prevented?

So whilst I hope that a No Deal Brexit can be prevented, I am doubtful that it will be. UK citizens are warned that there will be civil disorder if Brexit is stopped, but I am not sure quite how a Government charged with maintaining law and order could deliver this promise. However, if they repeat it often enough, it could well come true.

So I say we have to plan for a No Deal Brexit

And so to business.

Visas

If you are visiting the UK, please ensure that you have the correct visa in place before you travel.

That may prove difficult as I am not sure that the existing No Deal plans extend as far as making the appropriate visas available to travellers from the EU27. Given that obtaining a visa can take several weeks, I'd suggest that some may already be up the creek without a paddle.

Similar comments apply for UK travellers, excepting that you may need a visa for each member State you intend to visit. Again, you may already be swimming against the tide for visits where you will be within the EU27 on or after 31 October 2019.

To both UK businesses and EU27 businesses you need to get on with this now, even if you fear it will turn out to be a waste of money and time.

Health Care Cover

Similarly, look at your health care cover when travelling.

If travelling on business do not rely on a holiday policy. Make sure your policy treats the UK as being outside the EU. Do not rely on your EHIC - it seems that it will be useless for both UK travellers and travellers to the UK after 2300 on 31 October 2019. Make sure you have cover. Instructions to NHS hospitals are clear that they are not to treat patients unless they are from the UK (or otherwise entitled to be treated for free), and you will either not get treatment if you cannot pay or will have to pay. A Google search will show how much emergency treatment costs in the UK. I'm not sure if they will just leave you beside the road if you have been run over (I sincerely hope not), but that does illustrate the issue.

To put it bluntly, from 2300 on 31 October, whether a UK traveller to the EU27 or an EU27 traveller to the UK, don't have a heart attack unless you're not either incredibly wealthy or insured.

New rules for VAT

Moving to my specialist area - VAT - there will be new rules for imports, consignment stocks, supply and installation, place of supply of services, distance selling, Electronic Supply of Services, MOSS (it goes!) - the list just goes on. For most of these, if you are doing business in the UK, you will need either to change your trading arrangement or to get a VAT ID in the UK. Good luck on finding HMRC guidance on the specifics, and there are no planned concessions. Similarly for UK businesses doing business in the EU27.

And please do not believe that UK Officials will be in any way sympathetic or pragmatic (a word much loved by the UK Government when castigating the EU27). They won't be.

The intent of UK officials is already being demonstrated

Right now HMRC has a team attacking intra-community trade in goods and disallowing VAT zero-rating for businesses which do not hold perfect paperwork, including some information which is not, in my opinion, required by law.

The team ignores EU legislation and case law as if the UK has already left the EU.

We are also seeing challenges on the place of supply of services - in particular the treatment of "complex services" is not understood by UK tax officials.

Increased Red Tape

Please expect enormous "red tape" and intransigence from UK Officials.

That will apply as much to UK businesses, EU27 businesses and those from what will be our fellow "third countries" (a term to which, amusingly, some pro Brexit UK politicians have taken offense).

I hope that it does not mean lorries being turned round at the UK border, for example, or goods stuck at the airport or on the docks. Again UK politicians are already making noise about French red tape in Calais and red tape from the Irish Government following Brexit, but it seems that it is OK for UK Officials to behave in the same way.

In the UK, it is likely to mean problems with paperwork audits, with the potential for big bills and penalties after the event.

Summary

So - plan for a No Deal Brexit on 31 October or earlier.

Afterthought - the good news by Government Order

But on the good news front, since Mr Johnson Esq. tells us all we must look on the bright side, we are to have a new 50 pence coin in the UK to commemorate the UK leaving the EU. Given that the GBP has lost 26% of its value against other leading currencies, including the Euro, since 23 June 2016 (Referendum Day - which I am sure will be announced as a new UK Public Holiday very soon), the Brexit 50 pence coin with have the buying power of less than 37 pence of the 50 pence coin in 2016.

The good news is that this makes UK exports cheaper and UK businesses cheaper to buy for foreign investors - for example British Steel being purchased by a Turkish military pension fund.