Dead Hand: the final manifestation of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) Or: how today Artificial Intelligence can unleash the ultimate Climate Change

By Al Palladin – speech at the Seattle Olympic Club, September 1, 2021

If Stanley Kubrick would have wanted a happy ending for his 1964 classic “Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb”, he could have wrapped production with a scene of jubilation. Remember when the American President and the Russian Ambassador join in cries of joy in the War Room, as they are told that the rogue nuclear attack has been called off? Instead, the legendary director chose to proceed with his film – to the final scene of the pilot riding an atomic bomb to its target. Well, it’s just one bomb?.. But the horrified viewers then saw how that “limited nuking” triggered atomic explosions, that would kill life on Earth.

As the Russian explained earlier, the Doomsday Machine was designed and built as the ultimate manifestation of Mutually Assured Destruction. The American President exclaims: “this is absolute madness, Ambassador!” and then turns to his chief expert. “How is it possible for this thing to be triggered automatically?..” To which Dr. Strangelove replies: “it is not only possible, it is essential. That is the whole idea of this machine. Deterrence is the art of producing in the mind of the enemy the fear to attack. … The Doomsday Machine is terrifying, simple to understand and completely credible and convincing.” Only in movies, right? Wrong.

It is known that delivering a first strike on the Kremlin was part of American war planning. For example, P.D. 59, signed by President Carter in 1980, deliberately targeted Russian leadership. With the deployment of Pershing II missiles in 1983, sending nukes to Moscow would only take 8 minutes. As David E. Hoffman wrote in “The Dead Hand”[1] : “What if they were facing sudden death, if the missiles were only minutes away, a decapitation? With the leaders gone, who would order a retaliation? Who would transmit the orders? How would they communicate to the remote missile command posts and submarines?” Thus, in 1984 the Russians sped up a secret project.

Around the time of Kubrick’s movie, the Soviet military introduced the first attempt to automate the command-and-control system, called “Signal”. By the mid-1970s, the second generation, “Signal-M” came online, with more speed and streamlining of the transmissions to enable the unleashing of nuclear weapons. Connecting the lowest levels in the field to the highest echelons, it featured a new capability – a remote control button that could be pushed to launch atomics. “Signal-A” was introduced in 1985, and featured a highly computerized system, capable of remotely selecting and programing a flight plan for nuclear tipped missiles, in a matter of 10-15 seconds. As Hoffman wrote: “the significance of this is that Soviet authorities would gain speed and bypass uncertainty – the human kind – on the ground”.

In the 1970s a huge mistake happened – a malfunction occurred in the nuclear launch alert system, which led to an automatic message being sent from the top down. But most of the officers manning the silos in the Strategic Rocket Forces failed to obey. Instead of getting their men to prepare their missiles for a state closer to launch, they began (in hindsight, wisely) calling their superiors for a voice confirmation, on top of the computer-generated order.

Russian designers also understood the vulnerabilities of their traditional systems in the event of a nuclear attack on their infrastructure – the melting of cables, knockout of antennas and the frying of electronics via EMP (electro-magnetic pulse).

The answer was called “Perimeter”. Reportedly hidden deep underground in bunkers to the south of the Russian capital, and at backup locations, when switched on, the computer-operated system would rely on instruments. The unique electronics for doomsday were reportedly created at the elite computer engineering organization called the Special Design Bureau, of the Leningrad Polytechnic Institute.

“If nearby ground-level sensors detected a nuclear attack on Moscow, and if a break was detected in communications links with top military commanders, the system would send low-frequency signals over underground antennas to special rockets. Flying high over missile fields and other military sites, these rockets in turn would broadcast attack orders to missiles, bombers and, via radio relays, submarines at sea. Contrary to some Western beliefs, Dr. Blair says, many of Russia's nuclear-armed missiles in underground silos and on mobile launchers can be fired automatically.”[2]

“Perimeter” was first tested on November 13, 1984. It worked. Signals travelled automatically from Leningrad, to Moscow, then to the south of Russia, where the specially designed Command Rocket received the instructions to launch. Flying high above the country, the “Perimeter” broadcaster delivered messages heard by nuclear forces across the largest country in the world. As this was just a test, only one ballistic missile was launched that day, but it flew as designed, hitting its target almost 6,000 kilometers away. Russian leadership had its Doomsday Machine, which can operate in Dead Hand mode.

In 2011, the Commander of the?Russian Strategic Missile Forces,?Colonel General?Sergey Karakaev, in an interview with?Komsomolskaya Pravda, confirmed the operational state of this system. In November 2020, Russian President Putin made a statement indicating the completion of a major upgrade to “Perimeter”, which is operated from at least two autonomous locations deep in the Ural Mountains – reportedly designed to withstand even a ten-megaton nuclear strike. The most recent reports confirm that the conditions of operation of the upgraded system remain basically the same – with artificial intelligence empowered to make “if, then” decisions, when switched on.

And what if the vastly complex computer-operated system gets it wrong – and the automated launch signals are broadcast? Then there is hope that the bomber pilots and submarine skippers may choose to disobey. Even then, that leaves the Russian Strategic Missile Forces, which have more than 1,000 nuclear warheads ready to fly. Perhaps a third don’t get launched, perhaps even two thirds – that leaves around 300… Good odds for humanity to survive?..

What we also know from the 1980s, is that only 100 atomic explosions would be enough to cause the ultimate Climate Change – through the following two decades of Nuclear Winter. This science was convincing for Presidents Gorbachev and Reagan, who jointly proclaimed: “Nuclear war cannot be won, and must never be fought.” Presidents Putin and Biden repeated this maxim recently. So, it’s high time. No more Nukes. Time to 1) Freeze, 2) Reduce, 3) Eliminate.

[1] Hoffman, David. E., “The dead hand: the untold story of the Cold War arms race and its dangerous legacy”, First Anchor Books Edition, August 2010, 1st ed., p. 143

[2] Broad, William J (8 October 1993),?"Russia Has 'Doomsday' Machine, U.S. Expert Says" ,?The New York Times.