De-Globalization, Manufacturing, World Economics, Politics, and How it Affects You According to Peter Zeihan

Globalization, the process by which countries and businesses become more interconnected through trade, technology, and cultural exchange, has been a defining feature of the global economy for the past 70 years.

However, according to the geopolitical analyst, author, and speaker Peter Zeihan, globalization is ending.

In his latest book, "The End of The World Is Just The Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization," Peter Zeihan argues that the world is running out of mature adults, who are necessary for the consumption-based economic system to function, and that this demographic shift will have profound implications for the global economy.

When globalization began to increase in the 1950s, people moved off the farm and into the cities to take manufacturing jobs.

When adults were living on the farm, they had a bunch of kids because kids were free labor. In a condo, however, kids turn into costly (and loud) furniture, so adults stopped having as many kids.

After 70 years of people having fewer kids as a result of moving off the farm and into the city, the world is running out of mature adults.

From an economic perspective, Zeihan argues that the U.S. is better positioned than most nations because its post-war generation continued to have kids at the onset of globalization.

Additionally, America has a much higher mortality rate once people age past 55, which means that American wealth gets cycled back to the younger generation much faster than in nations where people live to be much older.

However, the nation that is most impacted by this demographic shift is China.

According to Zeihan, there are 1.3 billion people in China today, but he expects this number to fall to 650 million by 2050.

"The Chinese system collapses this decade, for sure," says Zeihan.

The Chinese crammed seven generations of growth into one age, but a nation can only do this once, and now it is behind them, and now they have no children and relatively few people under the age of 45.

"China's demographic collapse is unavoidable, its food collapse is highly likely, and that's before you start talking about things like energy manufacturing and trade," says Zeihan.

China is utterly dependent on globalization, as maintained by the Americans, for the entirety of its economic and cultural system. If China invades Taiwan, Zeihan believes it would lead to the end of the Chinese system as an industrialized economy in less than a year.

"Even if they capture Taiwan, they would be cut off from global manufacturing, investment, energy, and food. Trucks stop running in a couple of months. The lights go out in less than six, and that is all she wrote … mass famine in under a year," warns Zeihan on the consequences of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

After World War II, instead of adopting the empire model and having a single American-led structure that siphoned off resources, food, and energy from the rest of the world, the United States prioritized security over the Soviets. It provided an economic security backdrop for other nations. In 1992, the U.S. began to withdraw as the world's police structurally, and today it no longer has the military structure to guarantee global commerce. According to Zeihan, this means that several smaller regional bubbles of guaranteed trade will form around the globe, i.e., deglobalization.

The United States has never had to be at "the top of its game" because it's been able to rely on its geography and demography to do most of its heavy lifting.

However, a de-globalizing world requires the U.S. to build out its industrial capacity, an inflationary effort that will contribute to 9-15% inflation in the U.S. for the next six years.

In conclusion, Peter Zeihan's analysis of the end of globalization presents a bleak picture of the future of the global economy.

He argues that the world is running out of mature adults and that this demographic shift will have profound implications for the worldwide economy.

He also predicts that China is facing an unavoidable demographic collapse and that its food collapse is highly likely, and that's before you start talking about things like energy manufacturing and trade.

Peter believes that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would end China as we know it and that the U.S. will likely experience 9-15% inflation for quite some time.

The end of globalization will lead to a new world order, with smaller regional bubbles of guaranteed commerce forming around the globe.

The U.S. will have to build its industrial capacity, leading to inflation.

It is essential to keep an eye on these predictions and the ongoing global changes to understand the future of the world economy.

According to Peter Zeihan, the end of globalization will significantly impact manufacturing.

As people moved off the farm and into the cities to take manufacturing jobs in the 1950s, the world's population began to shift towards urban areas. However, as adults stopped having as many children, the world is now running out of mature adults who are necessary for the consumption-based economic system to function. This demographic shift will significantly impact manufacturing as the number of people available to work in manufacturing decreases.

Zeihan predicts that China is facing an unavoidable demographic collapse and that its food collapse is highly likely. He also argues that China is utterly dependent on globalization, as maintained by the Americans, for the entirety of its economic and cultural system. If China invades Taiwan, Zeihan believes it would lead to the end of the Chinese system as an industrialized economy in less than a year.

"Even if they capture Taiwan, they would be cut off from global manufacturing, investment, energy, and food. Trucks stop running in a couple of months. The lights go out in less than six, and that is all she wrote … mass famine in under a year," warns Zeihan on the consequences of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Furthermore, as the U.S. begins to withdraw as the world's police structurally and no longer has the military structure to guarantee global commerce, several smaller, regional bubbles of guaranteed trade will form around the globe, leading to a deglobalization. This means that manufacturing will become more localized and dependent on domestic resources rather than global trade.

The end of globalization will significantly impact manufacturing. As the world's population shifts and the number of mature adults decreases, the availability of labor for manufacturing will decrease. The predicted collapse of China as an industrialized economy and the deglobalization of the world economy will lead to a shift towards more localized and domestic manufacturing.

This will impact the production and supply chain, forcing companies to adapt their strategies accordingly.

Deglobalization will be one of the consequences of the end of globalization.

Peter predicts that as the U.S. begins to withdraw as the world's police structurally and no longer has the military structure to guarantee global commerce, several smaller regional bubbles of the secured transaction will form around the globe.

These regional bubbles will be areas where economic and security guarantees are provided by powerful nations, allowing for trade and commerce to flourish within those regions.

This will lead to a deglobalization of the world economy, where countries and businesses become less interconnected through trade, technology, and cultural exchange.

Zeihan argues that this shift towards more localized and regional economies will significantly affect countries and businesses.

It will require governments to build their industrial capacity and become more self-sufficient, as they will no longer be able to rely on global trade.

It will also lead to a shift in the balance of power, as regional authorities will rise to fill the void left by the decline of global trade.

According to Peter Zeihan, deglobalization is one of the critical consequences of the end of globalization.

He predicts that regional bubbles of guaranteed commerce will form around the globe, and the world economy will become less interconnected.

This will have significant implications for countries and businesses, requiring them to adapt to a more localized and self-sufficient economic model.

I stumbled upon Peter Zeihan listening to a podcast six months ago.

Then several days ago, I heard him again on Joe Rogan.

I highly recommend listening to understand better what's happening globally.

The whole episode is below on Spotify.

What do you think? What are the potential consequences of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan on the global economy, especially in international trade, manufacturing, and energy, and how can countries and businesses prepare for such an event?

I'm not affiliate marketing; I know Peter adds value; here is his latest book.

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