De - Dollarization?
Picture: "International Affairs".

De - Dollarization?

We have been frequent pleas among BRICS countries and even joint press conferences between Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping to renounce the use of the U.S. dollar for global trade and leading reserve currency.

As a result of sanctions imposed by the West, Moscow has been unable to conduct transactions in dollars and euros. Meanwhile, in a condescending stance towards Russia and annoyed by trade tensions with the U.S., China reinforces its intention to promote the yuan as a global currency. However, promoting an international currency from its use as a reserve currency of central banks is very different.?

"The dollar is losing its reserve status at a faster pace than generally accepted as many analysts have failed to account for last year's wild exchange rate moves", according to Stephen Jen. Still, the persistence of those conditions "is not preordained" and there may come a time when the rest of the world actively avoids using the dollar."

Likely excessive and probably very unfeasible assumptions.


For China to replace the dollar, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) would have to allow the yuan to trade freely and relax its peg to the U.S. currency. Such a movement encompasses implementing policies that would require liberalizing the Chinese financial markets, this is to become more transparent, directly defying the Chinese political model.?

China's sizable structural trade surpluses result from domestic economic imbalances. The pattern of weak domestic demand, coupled with weak investment by private companies that rely primarily on local consumers, likely will prompt greater government intervention.

A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) pledged to promote a sustained recovery in consumption, worried about weak demand.

China needs large and persistent trade surpluses to resolve the excess production that drives its economy. Any surplus economy must acquire foreign assets in exchange for its surpluses. If the yuan aims to become an international reserve currency, China would need to reduce the foreign surplus or increase the foreign deficit, meaning that it will become more attractive to demand foreign commodities and goods than domestic products. This is precisely the opposite of their political model of consumer nationalism. Otherwise, the United States, can run permanent trade deficits to satisfy the need of surplus countries to acquire foreign assets.?The dollar means stability and is safe as valued currency for transactions among financial markets, businesses, and governments.


For policymakers in Beijing, amid a trading war and the fissure with North Atlantic nations, keeping pace as trading partner powerhouse while preserving elusive social stability takes precedence. So the "noise" about the apparent chain of alliances in support of Russia and the de-dollarization of the global economy that anticipate the fall of U.S. hegemonic power seem would like siren songs. It does reflect nothing more than geopolitical aspirations aimed at artificially creating uncertainty and eroding trust on the current system.

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