Do I still want to do this?

Rethinking & Reflecting on Beer in 2023

Read on Substack or Shanferments.com

The following is a mix of opinion, emotion, therapeutic journaling, streams of consciousness, and hard economic market facts. This is not a scientific review as normal.

Prologue – the emotional bits

The Podcast?

I did an incredible interview with Bryan from Good Beer Hunting a few weeks ago, and the questions asked, along with the processing I was doing in real-time on the show podcast helped me bring emotions and ideas to life that I didn’t want to admit out loud.

I discussed the current situation in Canada. I discussed the current situation in America. Overall, I worked through some deep-seated feelings, out on the open air, resulting in expressing a thought I’ve kept deep down for a while; I’m not sure I want to do this anymore.

Emotional Processing of Past Events

I did 7 different speaking events and conferences this year. After the last one wrapped up, I fell into a mind trap. I was sick, so physically unable to do much, I was left to a lot of very negative thoughts. What does this future look like in the beer industry? 11 years, and what are you even doing now? I was told over and over again previously that I was not good enough, I was green, and I had no opportunities to succeed because of who I was and my lack of experience (despite being years deep, and a few degrees in).

I have been busy for the last year since I left my last position, but with idle hands and a mind that wanted to think, I was forced to finally psychologically digest the workplace abuse I had to suffer that I could not (and still can’t) tell anyone about. I am still processing those emotions and grief. When I’m not busy, my mind decides it wants to replay those scenarios. I tried to drown out all of this in social media, but the more I went on, the more emotion and anxiety crept up. I am continually reminded of what happened. As you can tell, I have not posted in several weeks, nor spoken to many. Every time I go to post, I think “does anyone actually care”?

I was then catapulted into a tailspin of existential dread when someone mentioned to me that this is not an “essential industry”, and then further elaborated. We can live without beer (though many would not want to) and having to come to terms with the idea that I’m not contributing to something that might be considered more beneficial to society like climate change or food insecurity or social causes had me descend into profound uncertainty.

After all, many of the economic discussions surrounding craft beer futures have been all but positive, what is next for this industry? ???

Less Emotion and More Observations: Market Reflections of 2023

My thoughts on the market stem from what I have observed over the past year, discussions with brewers and the trends I’m seeing on market reports. I use the phrase “I am seeing”, which I don’t typically use because the articles I write ordinarily are not from my own observations but collected from journals, newspapers and other secondary sources. The following are a collection of my own summarized observations, backed with additional sources. ?

I’m seeing a corporatization of the market, suppliers, and breweries. Larger breweries with more separation between management and workers, larger breweries with more separation from smaller breweries, small breweries with less passion as they grow older with or without the success they see, and corporations, “brewing adjacent” companies that are looking for their next “Key Account”. Many of the folks in those management positions have never been a brewer, owned a brewery, and could care less about beer itself; it’s just a “fun job” after being a slave to tech or pharma. I see many companies acting performatively for causes because it’s now something they have to do, rather than the right thing to do. I am observing more in-fighting amongst (especially) larger breweries for shelf space and fridge space due to an ever-increasing pantheon of options and new beverage alcohol choices. We’re seeing fewer folks able (not necessarily wanting) to purchase craft due to the treacherous economy. I am seeing consumers opting for an alternative beverage due to the concept that it is “healthier”. There is less risk in purchasing a consistent brew or seltzer than a craft beverage, which I’m also seeing in the consumer market. I am seeing fewer folks purchasing the flagship and more looking for new and fun options in craft because if they are going the craft route, they want to spend the money on something they haven’t tried before. These observations can be corroborated by most market reports, including the BA’s latest 2023 review (see the references section for more information).

I am seeing blatant lying to breweries about the state of certain commodities, the contracts, the availability, the pricing, all lies. The ones producing the commodities are also being caught by this tumultuous fabrication. The middlemen are winning. The over-contracting of essentials put breweries into situations they can’t get out of, and then the concurrent blame is then placed on those who were not educated by the suppliers. Shocking. ?

The rising price of owning and running a brewery or brewing beer in general has become difficult at best. The cost (beyond monetary value) of working at a brewery has also become burdensome, with many, including folks better than I, being forced to move out of this industry.

What I am observing, in so many terms, is the advanced stages of an industry, the maturity stage (as illustrated in the below graph). We are seeing the capitalistic marketization of a once almost exclusively artisanal industry. In a mature phase, we see innovation still, but not as rapidly. We see full establishment of larger, very successful companies (think Boston Beer), and more barriers to entry for smaller players. Players dropping off due to higher competition. Pricing strategy, diversification of distribution, and gaining market share are extremely important in this phase. A slow separation.

?Optimistic Revelations

What am optimistic about however is the following, and why I don’t believe we are going straight into a downward spiral of decline phase.

Firstly, people will always need an escape. When I worked for Diageo, which happened shortly after the market collapse of 2008, the comment was “Most people drink, but what they drink will change based on the economy”. ?What we are seeing is economic shifts that affect primary drinking-aged folks, so we are going to see shifts, but I believe that and what we’re seeing in many market reports, is demand for craft beer.

?Secondly, I think despite what we’re seeing in the US, overall across the globe we are seeing new breweries pop up, showing that there are some spots in the world where the industry is still growing. I think we will continue to see this, and I’m excited to see what innovations the folks in these global markets come up with.

Thirdly, even with Bart Watson’s forecast that a massive “culling” will occur of breweries (which we are visibly seeing- a whopping 385+ breweries closed this year according to the BA), we will have some breweries survive and even thrive through this, keeping our industry in a mature phase.

Finally, passion. To me, there is (almost) no other industry on earth that is this passionate about what they do. Now naturally I am being hyperbolic and there are other industries with passionate individuals, but I think this industry has host of passionate individuals unparalleled. ?We can quantify the results of passion through the swaths of folks that are burnt out simply because of the passionate nature of this industry. We want to, despite all odds, ensure this industry succeeds, which is a commonality amongst small and big players alike.

Next Steps

What I ended the podcast with was a statement, that as much as my existential crisis and overthinking mind have me following the exit signs, the passion I still have for (and arguably why I am still deeply emotional about) this industry keeps me here. I love the people who exist in this industry. I think it’s what will save us in the long run, and why a lot of folks are still pushing for change and sticking around.

I will be shifting my focus for this brand as I develop a more clear idea of what I’m doing moving forward. I’m not sure what that means yet, but it certainly means a slight half-step departure from beer.?

Thank you to Good Beer Hunting and Bryan for allowing me to work through my own thoughts on air, and really, truly thinking of what this industry is to me. Looking forward to its release next month.

References

1. Craft Beer Market 2023 Size, Share & Growth Research. Retrieved December 20, 2023, from https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/craft-beer-market-2023-size-share-growth-research
2. IMARC Group. Craft Beer Market Share, Size, Analysis Report 2024-2032. Retrieved December 20, 2023, from https://www.imarcgroup.com/craft-beer-market
3. BevNET.com . (2023, April 7). Craft Beer Overview: A 'Culling' of Craft is Coming. Retrieved December 20, 2023, from https://www.bevnet.com/magazine/issue/2023/craft-beer-overview-a-culling-of-craft-is-coming/
4. Toast. Brewery Industry Trends and Statistics in 2024 | On the Line. Retrieved December 20, 2023, from https://pos.toasttab.com/blog/on-the-line/brewery-industry-trends-and-statistics
5. Craft Beer Market Analysis 2023-2030: Technology Trends. Retrieved December 20, 2023, from https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/craft-beer-market-analysis-2023-2030-technology-trends
6. Brewers Association. (2023, December 11). The 2023 Year in Beer. Retrieved December 20, 2023, from https://www.brewersassociation.org/press-releases/the-2023-year-in-beer/