dc://google is still wrong about VR + AR

VR + AR = immersive computing = a feature not a business nor even a product

Otherwise excellent update from Google's Clay Bavor still misses the point

Positions Google's initiatives well. Contrasts with the absurd old Facebook Oculus hype

Quietly, he says it will take 10-30 years to achieve adoption and impact. Yes

Think of VR & AR (minus hysteria) more like NFC, Touch ID, face reco and Pencils

Mr Bavor's narrative helps make sense of the noise out there, so it's a good read

But I differ from him vehemently on his examples and the inferences he draws:

If you want to learn more about Machu Picchu, instead of watching a video about it, you'll visit it virtually.

Not really. The unforgettable sight of those stones emerging from the mists of Peru means little without the contributions over the ages of historians, geographers, journalists, film-makers, explorers and photographers. That's about stories, facts, words, context. The Inca Pachacuti. The American Bingham. And 40 years before Machu Picchu died in 1572, the cause of death, the Spaniard Pizzaro. Tell me, how does donning a head-set and swivelling your body left, right and upwards help me 'learn more about Machu Picchu' ? Sure, it's a bit of thrill for a few moments. Maybe even a minute or two. An optional component of what people used to call a multimedia experience (remember Multimedia anyone?). A feature yes. But a 'live virtual reality' walk around the rocks really tells me not much memorable or valuable. Rather a film. Long or short. A sequence of photos. Some well chosen words. Good grief, even an essay. They tell me more.

Instead of using a 2D street-level map to find a restaurant, your AR device will know precisely where it is in space, and walk you to within inches of the table you reserved.

Well no, not really. Not much more than it does now with Maps, Waze and Uber et al. I am trying to go where Mr Bavor wants me to go. It's 30 minutes to my restaurant booking. If it's a drive or a ride, then I'm already covered. If it's a walk, a glance or two at the 2D map will suffice. Walking alone, or with colleagues, or holding my partner by the hand, will I hold a camera up in my eye-line to make sure I don't take a wrong turn? When I get to the Mall where my prospective lunch is lurking on Level 3, will I ask for help from the guard at the door, glance at my 2D map or will I raise my phone to my eye while I navigate up escalators and along walkways? When I reach the restaurant, will I keep my legs in motion regardless of the receptionist or guests and physical realities in the room until I am neatly positioned beside the 'target table'? Help me here.

One issue however does give me pause. I am fascinated by the gulf in expectations and comfort in User Interface design, screen layouts, text clutter when we look at Asia (especially China) and 'the West'. Chinese customers seem to be used to, no more than that they expect and want, a very much higher degree of visual clutter (to my eyes) than the decades of visual design, typography, printed media, web and app screens which I am used to in Europe define as 'right' in the West. It is actually both bewildering and delightful. Take a look. So just as, in my early explorations of ASEAN and Chinese modern cultures, I have to reset all my visual and UX norms, perhaps I'm staggeringly wrong about VR and AR too. We can be certain that what goes for these in the West will be different from Asia. It's quite probable too that the most impactful and exciting applications of VR and AR will emerge in the latter. Pity Google cannot operate there.

Surgeons will overlay 3D medical scans right on top of their patients to better understand what’s going on.

Yes. There will be tens of thousands of similar incremental but important improvements to industrial, production, medical, military and business processes.

My beef is about the predicted impact on consumer entertainment and lifestyle. I just don't see it and I (boringly perhaps) warn against over-optimistic and hasty investments.

Feature not a business.