Days of Future Past

Introduction.

Given the title of this article, readers born after 1970 will probably be reminded of the Marvel movie Days of Future Past, one of the highest ranked of the Marvel movies. If you are a little older, however, it may bring to mind the Hard Rock song of the same name by Iron Maiden. Personally, I love both the movie and the song.

Having said this, the seed for this article was planted by my revisiting The Days of Future Passed, the 1967 concept album by the Moody Blues. This last week I was once again entranced by the album I first bought on vinyl in my youth, this time listening on Spotify. Even those unfamiliar with the album may recall the famous single from the album entitled Nights in White Satin.

If any of you are unfamiliar with these creative and innovative works, I recommend you stream them all and judge their worth for yourself.

My nostalgic revisiting of the music and movies of the past stimulated my thoughts about an upcoming year in dispute resolution and how we, as human beings, address the world as it was, is and will be.

It struck me that human beings are the only species on earth who interrogate the past and forecast the future out of pure intellectual curiosity. Then I sat and thought for a long moment before realising that it was not simply a question of satisfying our intellectual curiosity, but it was something deeper. Something that religionists have described as the desire to understand where we came from, why we are here and where we are going.

I believe that what humankind is really attempting to do is to look back so that we can learn from the past, contextualise the present and imagine (shape) the future. Most certainly this is what drives the construction process from Project Inception, through Project Management and to Dispute Resolution. It is also what drives delay analysis and quantum analysis.

The Past

Historical data is crucial to designers, planners and quantity surveyors. It forms the basis of every new project. Lessons learned about materials, processes and prices, allows us to conceive projects that are structurally sound, attractive, resilient and affordable.

Who would feel confident about tendering a new project without historical data from past projects? We need to know the prices of labour, materials, overheads and of course the speed at which work is executed/assembled (we call these labour norms).

Who would have confidence in a quantum expert who was unfamiliar with market prices, the cost of building in different areas or of building different types of projects?

The same is true of a delay expert with no past experience of the time tasks should take to execute or the best order in which to proceed.

We cannot eschew lived experience in the construction arena (or I suspect any other arena) because painful lessons learned once can help us avoid damage in the future.

I was playing mini golf with my wife in Florida when an unexpected change in the ground level threw me off balance. I scrambled for a firm level footing and my foot found yet another change in level and I tumbled to the floor, the concrete floor. More embarrassed than anything else, I checked for bone or muscle damage. There was none, and I stood up. Staff rushed to my aid and my wife shook her head. They were concerned because I was bleeding heavily from the knee and the elbow. I applied some first aid and then refused the offer of the site nurse. There were five holes to play, and I had a two-hole advantage.

The worst things about the day were:

1)????? A conversation between fellow golfers. “What’s going on?” “An old man fell over!”. Old man? Old man!!! My wife had to intervene before I challenged the cad to a duel.

2)????? To this day my knee is badly scarred, and I have always prided myself on the pristine attractiveness of my knees.

Not withstanding the fact that the annual GQ ‘Knee of the Year’ award is now unlikely to come my way, every time we get to the 13th hole my wife issues several unnecessary warnings to be careful.

We need to learn from the past and forensic experts like you will need to study the past to give your best advice for the future.

The Present

We cannot change the past (despite the movie tropes involving the Terminator, Marty McFly and Wolverine), but we can dictate what happens in the present.

As constructors we know that things will deviate from plan. We will face poor weather, pandemics, material failures, late deliveries, poor workmanship and changes to the design and execution of the works.

When we are assailed by these things, we need to do this, without fail:

a)?????? Identify the event, state its nature and severity. State its duration too.

b)????? Identify the status of the work, progress, level of completion, at the time of the event.

c)?????? Identify the immediate impact on materials, people and processes, record the impact at that moment.

d)????? Record what steps were taken to mitigate the impact of the event. Record the reasons for the decisions made and the information available at the time of each decision.

e)????? Forecast the impact on the works for the near future.

It will not escape you that this requires vigilance and accurate record keeping.

I worked for a contractor on troubled projects, long before I became an expert witness, so I know that in court or arbitration months after the event, the decision to keep labour on site despite a major event, can look insane. However, if you can explain why you did so, based on the knowledge that you had at the time, no judge or arbitrator will second guess your decision if it was sensible in all of the circumstances.

We can control the present, but we must record everything because tomorrow, today’s present will become the past.

The Future

To quote the eminent scientist Doc Brown (Back to the Future 3), “… the future has not been written yet, so make it the best one you can.”

Humans are blessed with an imagination that can paint a fairly accurate picture of the future, given prevailing conditions. We are also blessed with the capacity to influence the future by acting today.

Looking back, I appreciate I was an awkward child. When I was around four years old my mother told me that God was watching me, and he could see not only what I was doing at that moment, but he knew what I would do before I did it. I thought about this concept and as I walked along, every third step I randomly jumped or skipped. As I did so I smiled, and in my mind, I said, ‘You didn’t see that coming, did you God?’ I’m sure he did see it coming, and we can too.

When planning for the future we need to consider these things:

1)????? Does the past offer us any help?

2)????? Does our attitude/ action in the present limit our future alternatives?

3)????? If the past was, and present is, tumultuous, why should we presume that the future will be calm and controlled?

Woody Allen paraphrased an old Yiddish saying when he said, “Man Plans, God Laughs”.

Perhaps this is true but here is something that is very definitely true; if man doesn’t plan, nobody laughs.

Conclusion

Starting and finishing this article with popular culture does not diminish the message in between. People who learn from the past, stand on the shoulders of giants and in so doing they can see that much further. People who manage the present with an eye to shaping a better future are a chosen generation. People who stride into the future with confidence and hope, make both the present and future world a more pleasant place to be.

I don’t want you to adopt my conclusions, I want you to reach your own conclusions about what this world can be and what the built environment of the future could be.

Don’t blame the past or the people who framed history. It does no good; in that direction lies hatred and negativity. If you think they were wrong, let their statues and symbols stand as a reminder to you to do better.

Don’t listen to others’ forecasts of doom and gloom, do the research, do what you can do now.

My kids, and grandkids, are sick of hearing me say (when planning vacations or careers or anything):

‘Hope for the best but plan for the worst.’

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Jeff Whitfield is a testifying expert witness and a Director for CCI, a Rimkus Company. Jeff has also enjoyed a career in public speaking that goes back to 1985.