The day after Syria’s civil war is here

Syria’s 13-year civil war, mired in a stalemate, caught fire last week. President Bashar al-Assad fled the country, and a rebel coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) emerged as the victors, taking Damascus. Assad’s fall became inevitable when the rebels gained control of the Homs-Hama corridor, Arash Reisinezhad, a visiting fellow at the Middle East Center at the London School of Economics and Political Science, argues in Foreign Policy.

But even as they believe the fate of Syria is now in their hands, HTS will find itself stymied by the country’s fragmented geography, as others have before. Amid persistent internal tensions in a heterogenous land with millennia of history, Reisinezhad writes, “the establishment of a unified, independent national government has proved extraordinarily challenging.”?

A concerted effort by Syrian, regional, and international actors is needed to prevent further bloodshed and proxy wars in the country, Galip Dalay, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, argues. That effort must begin with a nonsectarian interim government in Damascus, but it also needs to include rebuilding from a bloc that replaces the old pro-Assad power brokers with the European Union, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United States.

In this “watershed moment,” as the balance of power in the region is shifting significantly amid the Israel-Hamas war and after Assad’s fall, Dalay writes that “forging a consensus around Syria could serve as the foundation for a new regional order.”

After years of indecision around its Syria policy, what should the United States do first? Jonathan Lord, the director of the Center for a New American Security’s Middle East program, offers a road map that includes expelling Russia’s military presence from Syria and working to close the country as an avenue for Iran’s power projection.

“The chaos and complexity of the situation might cause some to think the United States should just declare victory and remain disengaged,” Lord writes. “Doing so would be a costly mistake.”—Amelia Lester, deputy editor

New & Noteworthy

• Erdogan’s moment. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan kept his options open in Syria—and he now “finds himself in a novel and commanding position to determine Syria’s future without Assad in power,” FP columnist Steven A. Cook and Sinan Ciddi write. However, the Turkish leader will face significant challenges on the road ahead.
• Souped-up. One of New York’s hottest restaurant openings this year was Din Tai Fung, an outpost of the Taiwanese soup dumpling empire that began with a small noodle shop in Taipei. For Taiwan, which only has 12 full-fledged embassies left in the world, “the proliferation of DTF is a soft-power triumph,” FP’s Rishi Iyengar reports.

• Cautionary tale. Viewed in the West almost exclusively as part of the wider war against jihadist groups in the Sahel, what is happening in Mali is actually several conflicts at once. Independent journalist Issa Sikiti da Silva writes that it shows “what can happen when a country’s leaders are seemingly more interested in tightening their grip on power than protecting their people.”

FP Live

The Future of Clean Energy

Dec. 18 | 11 a.m. EST

“Drill, baby, drill” was one of Donald Trump’s key campaign slogans. The U.S. president-elect has signaled he will terminate the Inflation Reduction Act, which directed vast sums of money toward clean energy initiatives. Will green tax credits survive the next four years? What is the future of climate policy in the United States? Join FP Live for a conversation with John Podesta, President Joe Biden’s top climate diplomat. Podesta was also White House chief of staff to former President Bill Clinton and will share insight on what to make of the Trump transition so far. Register here, and join FP to submit your questions.

Biden’s Foreign Aid Legacy

Dec. 19 | 11 a.m. EST

From Gaza to Sudan, Ukraine, and beyond, the United States faces several simultaneous crises that demand the White House’s attention. How has the Biden administration managed to leverage foreign aid and assistance as part of its broader foreign-policy goals? What role does aid play in U.S. soft power? FP Live puts these questions to Samantha Power, who runs one of the world’s biggest aid agencies, the U.S. Agency for International Development. The conversation will explore the Biden administration’s successes and failures, as well as what future administrations can learn from them. Register here, and join FP to submit your questions.

Fareed Zakaria Looks Back at 2024 (and Ahead to 2025)

Dec. 26, 2024, & Jan. 1, 2025? |? 11 a.m. EST

Every December, FP Live dedicates two episodes to looking back at the year that was and looking ahead at the next calendar year. 2024 was particularly turbulent. What will 2025 hold in store for global politics, conflict, and the world order? There’s no one better to explore the tensions and patterns than Fareed Zakaria, the CNN host and bestselling author who coined the phrase “post-American world.” Join him in conversation with Ravi Agrawal for a two-part series looking back and ahead as a new year begins. Submit your questions for Zakaria and Agrawal, and look out for the first on-demand video later this month.

Exercise Your Mind

After a yearslong closure, Paraguay reopened its embassy in which city on Thursday?

A. Damascus

B. Jerusalem

C. Khartoum

D. Taipei

You can find the answer to this question and learn more at the end of this email.

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• A New Podcast Season. HERO, The Hidden Economics of Remarkable Women, is back for its seventh season! Host Reena Ninan talks to some of the biggest financial and development leaders about the long fight to support women and girls. With global public debt reaching historic highs, how are multilateral institutions approaching gender equality? Find out on a new season of HERO. Listen to the latest episode now on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
• Social Media. On Bluesky? So is FP! Follow us for timely updates on geopolitical issues on the go.

Answer: The occasion was a rare spot of good news this week for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who took to the stand to testify in his corruption trial on Dec. 10, David E. Rosenberg writes. Test your knowledge of last week’s world news with more quiz questions.