The Day After: In Its Loss, The BJP Has Won

As the political dust settles across a vast democracy following an exhausting electoral battle marked by searing heat and vulgar lust for power, a cacophony of voices continues to question the BJP’s legitamacy to govern India. This, to put it mildly, is strange, not merely because, despite a relatively fractured verdict, the BJP has emerged from what has been a decidely dirty campaign as the single largest party, with clean sweeps in several significant states, but also because before 2014, when Modi won a decisive mandate, coalition governments were very much the norm at the Centre. In neither of its two tenures before 2019 did the Congress, which led the UPA coalition, have anywhere near 240 seats. And yet those, we are being made to believe, were perfevctly legitimate, democratic governments.

Juxtapose that history with the current reality: Despite winning 240 seats and securing a vote share of over 39%, a touch higher than in 2019, Modi and the BJP are, by some convoluted logic, illegitimate. The dominant note in the RaGa noise is that the BJP 'lost' the election, and since Modi is BJP, he, that is, Modi must resign. But did the BJP really lose the elections? Read on, first the facts and then the fiction.

The Indian National Congress is in power by itself in just one of India's 28 states. It rules four others as a part of coalitions. The BJP, on the other hand, is in power exclusively in eight states and in 11 states as a coalition partner. In the just concluded general elections, the might of 13 parties led by INC together won 8 seats less than the BJP alone. Moreover, the BJP, by itself or with its allies, won all the states that went to the polls alongside the general elections. Finally, the nationwide vote share of the BJP in 2024 was a per cent higher than in 2019.

Those are facts.?Now, let us turn to the fictitious imagery being peddled by the INC-led INDIA:

Modi must resign despite his party emerging as the single largest in the Lok Sabha in the face of voter fatigue and the liability of having been in power for 10 years, only because the BJP fell short of winning a majority of the seats on its own.

On the other hand, the fact that the Congress, for the third successive Lok Sabha election, has failed to touch the three-figure mark must be celebrated as a resounding victory. A party with 99 seats must be recognised as the legitimate claimant to power over a party that won 240 seats.

It is surprising how often facts, when stated this coldly, sound preposterous.

Analysis based on facts:

The Lok Sabha election results have disappointed the BJP and its legion of supporters only in relation to their own expectations and the wildly exaggerated results of the Exit Polls. Given that Modi was trying to achieve something that no one has since 1962 -- win a third successive term--the expectations were clearly unrealistic. By any reasonable yardstick, 240 seats in a fight for a third term against the headwind of incumbency is nothing short of a remarkable achievement.

Conversely, the Congress winning 99 seats can be a cause of celebration only in relation to its own appalling record over the last decade, when it has been drubbed in election after humiliating election by the NDA. The fact that Congress leaders are jumping up and down over winning 99 seats shows the depths to which the once-dominant party has fallen. It is also a reflection of its self-esteem.

In the final analysts, its relatively underwhelming performance is probably the best thing that could have happened to the BJP. Like it is for a healthy bull market, periodic corrections are a must for political parties to evolve and become stronger. It can serve as a wake-up call and help them fight off their weaknesses, complacency and lethargy, which come from years of unchallenged power.

?For Congress, however, the 99 seats "upswing" is probably the worst thing that could have happened as following this Pyrrhic victory (given Rahul Gandhi’s sporadic interest in political leadership), it is likely to slide back into its bad old complacent habits, cheered on by a horde of sycophants bred by the Gandhi family over 60 years and more.