The day after - if it's not good karma I don't know what good karma is (and yes, when will it all end).
While planning my trips to the US to attend the 2020 shows, the plan included two “rounds” at the start of the year, Jan and Feb. The continuation of the rounds was planned for ... July 2020. March-July were dedicated to increase my customer base and prepare for a large business move I plan for 2012. The was my plan, back in Q4/2019….
Following my previous post discussing the vulnerability of western societies during crisis such as this, the most frequently asked question I was asked, was when (to my opinion) we will turn back to normal.
With that being said, my outlook is on “my arena – the independent retail stores, with closer focus on order writing shows as one of the “channels that feed” this market (vendors, stores and consumers).
I own a boutique marketing firm that that brings innovative and unique products to independent retail stores. We help small to medium enterprises and young entrepreneurs penetrate the US market - focusing on the independent retail market. We strive to serve a vast number of independent stores with direct deliveries, strictly adhering to “one of a kind”, innovative and unique products exclusively to this market segment.
More than 80% of total retail sales are still offline. Independent stores account for just a little less of these sales while the rest is held by the “Big Box” retailers. Thus, it a market share (the independents) that US economy can’t turn its back to.
More than million independent retail locations consist of one the US strongest economic bases. We should also take into account that fast return will be a considerable factor. Yet, the independents should be major players in “rolling this ball quicker back to the field”.
From a vendor perspective, I have good reason to believe that the independents will be the fastest to be back. For example, unless we have substantial economic budget to support a an online campaign, getting to the top product research on google, Amazon and alike could very well take at least 3 months. Penetrating the big box retailers, might take up to 2 years. Yet, the independents will act substantially faster.
One of the most effective vehicles for this segment will be the order writing show events. Purchasing decisions in these events are made fast and I experienced wiring my first orders in events such as these, less tan and hour after the doors were open!
This brings me back to my previous post addressing the (mental) vulnerability of western societies in times of crisis that affect the economy. In general, we can hold on to our expenses. Yet, we have greater struggle when we are “losing our shopping experience”. Shopping during prosperity is a statement of economic confidence. Lacking this routine affects our “economic mood”. Yet, that apply to western societies that assumed to live in higher standards. The US consumers aren’t any different!
The eagerness to gain back what was, lost is strong. Back to …2/29/2020, economic confidence was high. It is almost a month since the COVID-19 escalated and some uncertainties already erupt.
2020 could very well experience flat growth (at its optimistic forecast) while Q2 is “literally dead”. With vision toward Q3 and Q4, the economy is “not going to give up” so easily. In respect to trade shows I still hold to my optimism supported by few examples below:
1) The NHS (National Hardware Show) scheduled for May in Vegas, announced on 3/13 a postponing. Yet, on 3/16 already, it was rescheduled for 09/2020!
2) So far, I have not received any notification regarding cancellation or postponing the shows scheduled for Q3 and Q4. On a contrary, they all show “signs of life” as usual.
3) Some of our customers within the independent garden centers market (especially those located in northern state and shut down operation during winter) , still plan their seasonal opening for mid-April as usual.
However, I take into account that return will be relatively modest and well measured. Stores are still “sitting” on unsold inventory. Yet, new orders and new purchases will be more of statement and sign of returning to live than just business move.
I do not see things “stretching” beyond ... 5/31/2020!
There still a chance that recovery will be slower and more painful. Yet, the eagerness to gain losses and recover the “economic mood” are greater. Allow me to quote a conversation I had with few of my colleagues discussing that matter (all of which agreed with me): “should things won’t be back in Q3, we will… fake our return to normal...!