4-The Second Enrollment Cliff
The Second Enrollment Cliff
For much of the 20th century, higher education was a symbol of progress and opportunity. The sustained increase in enrollment at postsecondary institutions, especially in the post-World War II era, was a testament to its value. However, in recent years, the sustainability of higher education business models has been the subject of intense debate within academic circles, media, and beyond (Kelchen, 2020).
Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, a total of 754 institutions, comprising 622 for-profit and 132 non-profit schools, closed their doors between 2002 and 2019. The impact of these closures was felt widely, with for-profit two-year colleges being hit particularly hard. In 2018 alone, 133 school closures were recorded, 20 of which involved non-profit institutions. A closer look at the data reveals that non-profit institutions in rural areas bore a disproportionate burden of these closures between 2009 and 2019, reaching a peak over the past several years (Kelchen, 2020).
The Great Recession of 2007-2009 brought forth a new set of challenges for higher education. In addition to the economic downturn, other existential challenges emerged. Changing demographics resulted in a dwindling population of college-aged students. The burden of rising student loan debt became increasingly heavy, and outdated business models struggled to adapt to the evolving educational landscape (Grawe, 2018). These challenges were only exacerbated and accelerated by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (New York Times, 2022).
Even as the pandemic gradually subsided, the higher education sector continued to grapple with the aftermath. Declines in international student recruitment, a robust labor market that enticed individuals away from pursuing higher education due to better-paying jobs, and shifting public perceptions about the importance of a college degree persisted as significant obstacles. To add to the complexity, inflation drove operating costs upward, further straining the resources of many institutions (Barroso & Scheopoulos, 2021).
These collective factors have left numerous higher education institutions with pressing questions about their long-term viability.
The First Enrollment Cliff That Never Was
In 1972, the Carnegie Commission on Higher Education embarked on a study to explore the potential impact of declining birth rates in the late 1960s and 1970s on college enrollment in the years to come. The study focused on 491 non-selective, small private, non-profit institutions, which the report authors affectionately referred to as "invisible colleges" (Astin & Lee, 1972).
In the report's foreword, Commission Chairman Clark Kerr made a prediction that many of the schools under scrutiny would likely be compelled to close as lower birth rates would ultimately reduce the demand for higher education. It seemed like a reasonable assumption that fewer births would translate to fewer college students.
However, history took an unexpected turn. Contrary to the predictions, college enrollments experienced an upswing despite the lower birth rates of the late 1960s and 1970s. Notably, the percentage of high school students entering college witnessed a significant surge in the 1980s and 1990s. Furthermore, the report failed to anticipate the substantial number of adult learners seeking to return to school to earn bachelor's degrees or pursue graduate studies.
As a result, postsecondary enrollment saw an astonishing 66% increase between 1970 and 1990, surging from 8.5 million students to over 14.1 million (NCES, 2023). During the same period, the number of institutions also grew by nearly 25%.
Declining Birth Rate
Today, higher education faces a new enrollment cliff, one that presents a unique set of challenges. The birth rate in the United States has experienced a substantial decline of over 22% since the post-9/11 era (CDC, 2022). The repercussions of this decline are just beginning to impact institutions.
In contrast to the 1980s and 1990s, college enrollments are on the decline, with no apparent phenomenon on the horizon suggesting an imminent resurgence in demand for higher education. In 2010, total college enrollment stood at 20.4 million (NCES, 2023). However, by 2022, it had dropped to just over 18 million (NSC, 2023).
The country's total fertility rate has fallen by more than 12 percent since 2007, and the Great Recession played a role in further delaying and, in some cases, eliminating births altogether. Beginning in 2026, the number of native-born children reaching college age is expected to decline rapidly in many areas of the country. This trend is particularly challenging for regions like New England and the Midwest, which are home to many smaller private, not-for-profit postsecondary institutions. In these areas, the number of high school students may plummet by 15 to 20 percent (Grawe, 2018).
The demographic shifts are further compounded by factors such as lower levels of immigration, changing interstate migration patterns, and fertility disparities between different population groups. As a result, the country's population is tilting toward the Southwest and the Sunbelt. This shift is particularly relevant to the Northeast, where a significant proportion of the nation's colleges and universities are located. The region is projected to experience modest growth through 2025, after which the number of high school graduates is expected to decline to about 571,000 by 2037 (College Board, 2021). In contrast, states with fewer institutions, such as Utah, are anticipated to see a slight increase in college-aged students (Bransberger, 2020).
In the face of these challenges, institutions must innovate and adapt to ensure their continued relevance and viability. While some have successfully embraced online education and targeted niche markets, many others are confronted with the need to evolve and meet the changing needs of students.
The higher education landscape is evolving rapidly, and institutions must be prepared to navigate the current challenges to provide valuable opportunities for those seeking knowledge and personal growth.
Births in the United States (1925 - 2021)
Note. Illustrates the decline in fertility rates in the years leading up to 1972, which left many institutions worried about the supply of college students in the early 1980s as well as through 2021. Data from National Center for Health Statistics. (2021). U.S. Centers For Disease Control And Prevention. Retrieved May 2, 2023, from https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/vitalstatsonline.htm
The? New Enrollment Cliff
The landscape of higher education in the United States is undergoing a seismic shift, and at the heart of this transformation is a demographic challenge. Since the aftermath of 9/11, the birth rate has experienced a significant decline of over 22% (CDC, 2022). However, institutions are just beginning to feel the reverberations of this demographic shift that began nearly two decades ago.
In stark contrast to the 1980s and 1990s, the higher education sector is facing a downturn in college enrollment, and there is no clear indication on the horizon to suggest a resurgence in demand. The statistics are telling: in 2010, the total college enrollment in the United States stood at 20.4 million (NCES, 2023). However, by 2022, this number had dropped to just over 18 million (NSC, 2023).
The demographic changes go hand in hand with a declining total fertility rate, which has fallen by more than 12% since 2007. The Great Recession played a significant role in exacerbating this issue, with birth rates not just delayed, but in some cases, births were eliminated altogether. The impact of these changes is projected to be felt more acutely starting in 2026 when the number of native-born children reaching college age is expected to decline rapidly in many parts of the country.
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The implications of this shift are far-reaching, particularly in regions like New England and the Midwest, where many smaller private, not-for-profit postsecondary institutions are concentrated. In these areas, the number of high school students may plummet by a daunting 15 to 20 percent (Grawe, 2018).
What does this mean for higher education in the United States? It means that institutions are facing a new and complex challenge that necessitates innovative solutions and adaptability. The days of relying on traditional models of enrollment growth are waning, and institutions are now compelled to rethink their strategies, diversify their offerings, and remain resilient in the face of shifting demographics.
This challenge is not insurmountable, and there are avenues for institutions to explore. Online education and targeted niche markets are proving to be successful approaches for some. Additionally, institutions can enhance their support for adult learners who are seeking to return to school to earn bachelor's degrees or pursue graduate studies.
In conclusion, higher education in the United States is at a critical juncture. The demographic changes that have been brewing for decades are now reshaping the landscape. It's a call to action for institutions to be proactive, flexible, and innovative. The future of higher education will be defined by those who can adapt to meet the evolving needs of students in a rapidly changing world.
Projected Decline of U.S. High School Graduates Through 2035 ?
Note. Illustrates the precipitous decline of U.S. high school graduates for years to come. Adapted from Bransberger, P., Falkenstern, C., & Lane, P. (2020). Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates. Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2. https://www.wiche.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Knocking-pdf-for-website.pdf ????????????????
The winds of change are sweeping through higher education in the United States, and at the heart of this transformation are shifting demographics. It's a complex interplay of factors, including lower birth rates, changing patterns of migration, and disparities in fertility among population groups (Grawe, 2018). These demographic shifts are tilting the country's population toward the Southwest and the Sunbelt region, while the Northeast, home to a significant proportion of the nation's colleges and universities, faces a distinct challenge when it comes to postsecondary enrollment.
The Northeast, often considered the educational hub of the country, is expected to bear the brunt of these demographic changes. According to projections, the region will experience modest growth in high school graduates through 2025, reaching approximately 650,000 graduates. However, this growth will be short-lived, with a subsequent decline to about 571,000 by 2037 (College Board, 2021). This decline in the number of high school graduates poses a significant challenge for higher education institutions in the Northeast, as they grapple with a shrinking pool of potential students.
In contrast, states like Utah, where there are fewer higher education institutions, are expected to witness a slight increase in the number of college-aged students (Bransberger, 2020). This underscores the need for adaptability in the higher education sector. Institutions in regions experiencing population growth may find new opportunities to serve their communities and beyond.
The changing demographics also highlight the importance of understanding and catering to the diverse needs of students from various backgrounds and age groups. As the student population becomes more heterogeneous, institutions that can effectively support adult learners, provide flexible learning options, and offer relevant programs will be better positioned to thrive in this evolving landscape.
The shifting demographic landscape of higher education is a challenge, but it also presents opportunities for innovation and adaptation. Institutions that can navigate these changes and respond to the evolving needs of students will be well-prepared to weather the storm and continue providing quality education to a diverse and dynamic student body.
Forecasted Growth and Decline in College Bound Students Between 2012-29
Note. Projected change in college-aged student populations by state between 2012 and 2029. Data from Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2020, www.knocking.wiche.edu .
Between 2012 and 2021, only four states experienced growth in postsecondary enrollment, including New Hampshire with a 116% increase? (primarily due to the growth of Southern New Hampshire University that serves predominantly online learners),? Arizona with a 10% gain, and Utah and Georgia, which both saw increases of under 1%. Conversely, Iowa, New Mexico, and Oregon experienced the most significant declines in enrollment at 45%, 33%, and 30%, respectively.
Percentage Change in Undergraduate Enrollment by State (2012-21)
Note. Data from Current Term Enrollment Estimates. (2021, December). National Student Clearing House Research Center. Retrieved May 2, 2023, from https://nscresearchcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/CTEE_Report_Fall_2021.pdf
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Abstract
Abstract The purpose of the study was to explore Rural-Serving Institutions (RSI) presidents' perceptions regarding the threats and potential solutions that can keep their institutions viable over the next decade. The study focused on presidents representing small, private, not-for-profit, four-year post-secondary institutions that had an enrollment of fewer than 2,000 students, endowments with values of less than $250 million as of 2020 and were classified as "rural-serving" as defined by the Alliance for Research on Regional Colleges (ARRC, 2022). A written online survey was sent to the presidents of all 170 institutions, of which 70 presidents responded and 35 also participated in follow-up one-on-one interviews of approximately one hour. The research questions guiding the study were focused on identifying the greatest external threats to RSIs, the most significant internal challenges facing these institutions, and the most effective strategies for addressing these challenges. To address the limitations of prior research in this area, the study relied on surveys, interviews, and publicly available data to identify and rank the most significant threats to RSIs as perceived by their leaders. The study employed Bolman and Deal’s (2017) four leadership frames as a theoretical framework to understand how RSI presidents perceive internal and external challenges to their institutions' viability and to identify strategies for addressing these challenges. The research provides practical recommendations that can help these historic institutions remain viable in the face of the challenges they face. The importance of RSIs in rural communities and the impact of RSI closures on local economies and employment are highlighted in the study. This is one of the larger research studies on rural institutions from the perspective of their presidents, and it contributes to the body of knowledge on RSIs by providing actionable insights that can inform decision-making in these institutions.