On this day in 2020...26th August

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?Extract from the book,

?‘Coronavirus – 2020 Vision.

The road to Freedom Day.

A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’

- Keith Wright.

?KeithWright2021

?*OUT NOW*

WEDNESDAY 26TH AUGUST 2020

Facts and figures.

The latest figures show that more than 325,000 people have tested positive for the virus in the UK overall.

A total of 41,423 people have died in the UK within 28 days of testing positive for the disease, to date.

Of course, the real picture is grimmer; in England and Wales alone, up to three weeks ago – 7th August 2020, the number of deaths this year for anything and everything was 389,008, which is 52,737 more than the five-year average, known as ‘excess deaths.’

Of these deaths 51,879 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate. This equates to 13.3% of all deaths in England and Wales.

For now, at least there is a lull in the UK compared to previous hectic months. There are less than 500 people in hospital with COVID-19 and under 100 in ICU.

The COVID-19 virus, however, is still growing, but the rise in cases and deaths has slowed around the world, except for Southeast Asia and the eastern Mediterranean regions, according to the World Health Organisation.

The Americas remain the hardest hit accounting for half the newly reported cases and 62% of the 39,240 deaths worldwide in the last week.

To date, more than 23.65 million people have been reported to have been infected around the world, and 811,895 have died according to Reuters.

Teenagers have been less anxious during lockdown, researchers at Bristol University have discovered. It is thought that this is because of the absence of day-to-day school pressures and challenging peer relationships.

Anxiety

Bristol University surveyed 1,000 young people.

In October last year, 2019, 54% of 13- and 14-year-old girls showed they were at risk of anxiety compared to 26% of boys the same age.

When surveyed again in May 2020 the results dropped by almost 10% to 45% of girls and 18% of boys.

The Lord giveth…

More than 90,000 jobs have been lost or placed at risk in the UK's travel sector since the pandemic started according to ABTA. This equates to 18% in outbound travel jobs.

ABTA is seeking help from the government financially through incentives to travel and through policy, seeking they consider a ‘regionalised’ approach to quarantine rules.

Some say the Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away. Tesco is creating 16,000 jobs after ‘exceptional growth’ in online shopping during the lockdown. They include 10,000 pickers to put together customer orders and 3,000 drivers to deliver them, as well as ancillary roles in distribution.

?Daily news.

Collywobbles.

As schools are preparing for children to return in England, in Scotland they have already done so.

Seventeen teachers have tested positive for COVID-19 in Dundee at Kings Park School. The school has since been closed for a deep clean.

It has fuelled further jitters, with the government and scientists quoting the extremely low-risk for children, yet the concern about adults – teachers and relatives catching it from the children has never really been quelled.

The WHO has said that just 1-3% of all cases globally are in children and adolescents yet they account for 29% of the population overall.

Dr Jenny Harries, deputy chief medical officer, told Sky News there was more chance of children being killed in a car accident than catching COVID-19.

In the six weeks up to the end of July there has been 15 deaths from COVID-19 in under 19-year-olds in the UK.

Compare this with the number of deaths for other reasons for the same period: 44 children and adolescents would die in a car crash and 29 would die from ‘homicide or probable homicide.’

As the collywobbles continue, the latest hesitation around returning to school involves the consideration being given to children wearing face masks when they return. Scotland declared that children must do so.

Boris Johnson the UK P.M. initially said that our children would not but has since had second thoughts and the ruling now is that children over 12 must wear masks if they are in an area of high transmissions such as Leicester or Blackburn, but in other regions of England the headteacher should take the decision.

Author’s note. I think if I were a headteacher, I would feel compelled to impose mask wearing for fear of legal action when and if an outbreak occurs at the school. Government passing the buck like this is not helpful in my view.

The merry, merry, month of ‘may.’

A leaked government document shows plans to deal with ‘a reasonable worst-case scenario’ should a second coronavirus wave hit us at the same time as a ‘no-deal Brexit.’ Brexit being the separation of the United Kingdom from the European Union.

The dossier considers the military may have to airdrop food to the Channel Islands (Jersey and Guernsey).

The navy may be required to stop British fishermen clashing with illegal European fishing boat incursions.

There may be power and petrol shortages in parts of the UK if thousands of lorries end up stranded in Dover.

Animal diseases may spread throughout the countryside due to veterinary medicines being blocked at ports.

Hospitals may be overwhelmed if a no-deal Brexit combines with floods, flu and a second wave of coronavirus.

Author’s note: This seems a sensible thing to do. There isn’t too much of a concern in the dossier as far as I can see. It is a worst-case scenario that I would have thought might have been more alarming than this. The power shortages and hospital issues are the most worrying, but hopefully this worst-case scenario will go the way of every other prediction about a post- Brexit world – in the bin. In the wildest dreams of those wanting to remain in the EU the predicted fiscal issues from leaving the Union pail into a pimple compared to the coronavirus's effect.

For the last time. I do not have a pimple on my bum!

No pressure.

A study of 28,000 patients led by Doctor Vassilios Vassiliou, has shown that blood pressure medication could reduce severe COVID risk by a third. It found those taking such medication were 0.67% less likely to be severely ill or die from coronavirus.

It doesn’t sound a lot but when only 1.2 – 1.5% are dying, it is quite significant. It dispels earlier views that those with high blood pressure would have worse outcomes than others.

Finger licking…

The popular chicken takeaway food chain Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) has decided to pause its famous ‘Finger Lickin' Good’ slogan after 64 years. It said the message ‘doesn’t quite fit’ the coronavirus message of hygiene and contamination.

The slogan will be resumed ‘when the time is right.’

Talking of which…

Perhaps not too far removed from KFC’s slogan we hear a French nudist resort has surprisingly suffered from an outbreak of COVID-19. One would have thought they did not get close enough to one another.

The Cap d’Agde resort in Herault, on the Mediterranean coast had 38 positive cases on Monday last, and 57 on the Wednesday. Another 50 holidaymakers have tested positive after returning home.

?Family life.

Like a Virgin.

We switched from Virgin to Sky television this week. It was a different process in the ‘new normal’ because I received a series of texts from Sky relating to COVID-19. I had to confirm that it was okay for them to do all the work externally. Then a second text asked me to watch a video on how to prepare for the engineer should he need access to inside the property and confirm the video had been watched. The video asked that I make a clear route from the door to the phone point and to open all windows for ventilation and then when the engineer was present to be in a separate room.

The first engineer for Broadband was not wearing a mask but the one the next day for the TV was wearing one. Both refused drinks of tea or coffee. Anyway, just a glimpse at the new environs we are living in with this blessed disease.

Quote of the day:

‘One day, when the light of the blue moon falls in your eyes, then you’ll realize that only the naked truth can free your heart.’ – Sir Kristian Goldman Aumann.

??KeithWright2021

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?‘Coronavirus – 2020 Vision.

The road to Freedom Day.

A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’

- Keith Wright.

?This day-by-day factual and complete account of events throughout the coronavirus pandemic, written as it happened, gives incredible insight into what life was like during this tragic and historic pandemic in the United Kingdom and worldwide.

It includes facts and figures, government initiatives, news events, moving individual accounts, and the horrific consequences, as they happened each day.

There is also a daily, personal slant on what life was like for the author and his family during what threatened to be an apocalyptic event.

It reveals all humanity in its idiocy, compassion and brilliance; the key elements, significant dates, statistics, human stories, tragedies, government strategies, the twists and turns, the humour and the obtuse.

The coronavirus will define this generation and identify these times, like other rare global historical events such as the bubonic plague and the World Wars.

This book is something to show your children and grandchildren when they ask you what it was like during such a frightening time. It can also be used as a point of reference for historians, commentators, and educators. It is also merely for posterity.

Were you alive? Do you recall it? Do you remember our Prime Minister almost died with Covid-19? Remember, the Queen saying ‘we’ll meet again’ during lockdown? Surely you recollect the EU conducting ‘an act of hostility’ towards the UK to get their hands on our vaccines? The thirty police officers fined for having a haircut, or the first man in the world to be vaccinated being called William Shakespeare from Stratford Upon Avon!

The whole world was plunged into chaos, with death, suffering and economic disaster. How did we cope? How did all of this happen? According to Keith’s wife, Jackie, it was ‘all because a man ate a bat.’

?Keith Wright previously worked leading Corporate Investigations for a global pharmacy retailer. He has worked on major Crisis Management Incidents alongside senior executives impacting across the world of pharmaceutical product management.

Critically acclaimed crime novelist, and former CID detective, Wright moves from fiction to a factual account of arguably the most historic natural event to blight humanity in modern times.

He has four children and lives in Nottingham, England, with his wife, Jackie.

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This book is dedicated to those who have lost their lives and the extraordinary bravery of front-line NHS staff, key workers, carers, and everyone who, in their own way, have contributed to help others. We are grateful, and we thank you, wholeheartedly.

?Author’s note.

My mother's first husband was killed in World War 2. His name was Arthur Smith. When I spoke with her about it, which, with hindsight, was too infrequently, she said he wasn't a fighter; he was a gentle, kind man, thrown into a hell with which he would struggle to adapt. He was an infantryman who died doing his duty for others, near Geel in Belgium, pushing through from the D-Day landings in 1944.

I use this as a loose analogy for our NHS heroes in the front line. These people are not emergency workers such as the police who are used to conflict and danger, nor are they like firefighters physically battling a fire and saving lives. These are people who have a caring disposition. (Not that the police and firefighters, don't care, bearing in mind that they risk their lives on a daily basis, but you see the point I am making).

?NHS front-line workers are sensitive to the human condition and understand the nuances of helping another human being survive illness and injury. They are also people who have now seen the effects of COVID-19 and the nightmare conditions it engenders. Every fibre of their being is focussed on kindness and caring. Yet they have to find peculiar courage. The courage to risk their own lives and possibly even their families lives to treat others every day. Not only do they have to wear a surgical mask, but they have to display the mask of quiet reassurance, professionalism, and positivity, despite their fears. They have to fight with decisions like holding a hand of an infected dying patient when your COVID instinct dictates you surely must not do this.

Dear reader, this is real courage. I hope they are well looked after once this is all resolved, and they receive counselling to help them recover from this incredibly traumatic time.

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BEFORE WE START THE DIARY. WHAT WAS IT ALL ABOUT?

?As I commence this diary, this is what is known; our knowledge will grow over the months and years.

?Coronavirus is a respiratory virus discovered in 2019. In lay-person terms, it causes the lungs to clog up, inhibiting the oxygen supply to the blood, and eventually causing organ failure. Its potency is in how virulently contagious it is. Coronavirus is the virus that leads to the disease COVID-19.

It is believed to be a zoonotic illness, meaning it jumped species to infect humans. Researchers believe the most likely source is the Rhinolophus sinicus, otherwise known as the horseshoe bat which was consumed having been purchased from a ‘wet market’ in Hubei Province, China.

COVID-19 was originally known as 2019-nCoV. It stood for the year of its discovery - 2019, the fact that it was a new (novel) virus (n), and it came from the Corona Virus family (CoV).

?The name was changed to COVID-19 when it became a pandemic. The World Health Organisation had to allocate a name for the disease that did not relate to a person; a group of persons, an animal, a geographic location, was pronounceable, and relatable. Beyond this, the formal name for the virus given by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses called it the 'severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2' or SARS-CoV-2, because it is related to the virus that caused the outbreak of SARS in 2003. For the avoidance of doubt, it will be referred to by the name everyone uses; COVID-19 or ‘Covid.’

Early analysis of the virus suggests that two main strains exist, designated L and S. The L strain appears to be more prevalent (70% of cases); however, it is the S strain that is the ancestral version. L strain appears to be the most aggressive and spreads quickly. It should be noted that this is a new virus to humanity, and we are starting from absolute scratch in our understanding of it. Even as knowledge grows, the chances of mutation are possible, if not probable, and suddenly all bets can be off.

?The coronavirus is transferable by hand to mouth from surfaces or contact and close proximity with someone affected. As with all such viruses, it is also spread by droplets, contact, or airborne particles. It causes a continual dry cough, breathing difficulties, and some aches and pains. Latterly we discovered a loss of taste and smell was also a major symptom. It is a mild to moderate condition for 80 per cent of those who catch it. However, older people and those with underlying illnesses are at a much higher risk of death. As the disease progresses, we see more and more younger able-bodied people in intensive care and dying because of the virus. The World Health Organisation state that 3% of those contracting it will die. There is no cure and no vaccine.

The virus uses its outer prongs to lock on to a living cell. It then inserts its genetic material (RNA – Ribonucleicacid) into the cell. Once inside, it hijacks the machinery of the nucleus of the cell to make numerous copies of itself. It then destroys the cell, and the copies burst out and spread, to do the same thing to multiple other living cells and so the cycle continues, with the virus growing and multiplying exponentially.

The incubation period in a human can be anything from 0-15 days. Some people are asymptomatic and are oblivious to having caught it. Most people's immune system mounts an appropriate response, and they begin to feel better after around 5-7 days after a debilitating flu-like illness. In some people, the immune system goes into overdrive and starts attacking the lungs and other organs and the coronavirus. Infection can cause pneumonia, breathing difficulties, and further organ damage. In others, the immune system cannot cope, and they die. Some can appear to have overcome it and then deteriorate rapidly and die in a day, often with hypoxia – lack of oxygen. Some have been in a coma for 60 plus days, yet still, survive, but forever scarred and impaired.

It is reported that the first case of the disease was presented by a 55-year-old man in Hubei Province, China, on 17th November 2019. It spread and was located in Wuhan Province, China, a month later, in December 2019.

Other theories have emerged around the virus' origins:

• The eating of a diseased bat (or Pangolin) at a wet market. (This seems initially to be the most likely. ‘Pangolin and chips please, no vinegar.’).
• A leak or intentional dispersal from the biological warfare lab situated in Wuhan, China.
• It began in a region south of Wuhan as early as September 2019. Cambridge scientists are exploring the September theory by tracing pathogens. This earlier outbreak could have been carried by humans well before it mutated into a more lethal form.
• Others suggest that traces of faeces in Italy’s sewerage show the virus earlier than it began in China in the summer of 2019. This was later corroborated by research into blood samples of cancer patients taken in early October 2019 which had COVID-19 antibodies present, which means they would have had the disease in September 2019.

Regardless of the exact trigger point, the coronavirus was initially thought to have arrived in the United Kingdom on 28th February 2020, and the first confirmed case being on 31st February 2020. In August 2020, samples by the University of Nottingham discovered that the earliest person to contract and then die with the virus was a 75-year-old woman from Nottinghamshire who tested positive on 21st February 2020.

It is now understood that a traveller returning from South Korea on 28th February 2020 most likely caught the virus in Nottingham rather than Korea as first assumed. Professor John Ball, one of the authors of the study, said ‘there was widespread community transmission of coronavirus’ in Nottingham in early February 2020.

In the UK, we have the National Health Service (NHS). This means that medical care is free at the point of need for all its citizens. The working population pay for this service through their taxes. Each country around the world has different healthcare systems, some insurance based. The NHS does not have any added complications around whether someone can afford to pay for their care through insurance coverage or otherwise.

Key players in the management of this crisis in the United Kingdom are:

Boris Johnson; Prime Minister,

Matt Hancock; the Health Secretary of State,

Dominic Raab; the Foreign & Commonwealth Secretary of State (deputising for the P.M.),

Rishi Sunak; The Chancellor of the Exchequer,

Professor Sir Patrick Vallance; the Chief Scientific Advisor and chair of SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies),

Professor Chris Whitty; the Chief Medical officer for Public Health England,

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam; Deputy Chief Medical Officer for Public Health England.

The virus has caused tens of millions of infections and millions of deaths worldwide, creating a global lock-down and an almost dystopian planet, of death and deserted streets, never before experienced in modern history. Some describe it as an apocalyptic disease. The fabric of society is changed with people told not to socialise and to stay at home. These changes have a massive effect on our way of life, the economy, and family interaction. What will life be like when we come blinking out of our homes in months or years ahead, assuming we survive, into a new world that is changed forever?

Our hope is for a vaccine, yet this is impossible for many months, probably years, if at all. Sadly, the world has been unable to develop a vaccine for any of the previous coronavirus such as SARS, (or even the common cold, which is part of the coronavirus family), so it would be remarkable if they manage to do so with this one.

Immunity after the disease is unclear. There is nothing to suggest that previous sufferers have immunity, nor for how long it will last if they do. There is even the danger of those recovering from COVID-19 gaining, something known as 'enhanced immunity.' This relatively unknown syndrome happens with Dengue fever, which means you get the disease far worse the second time.

I start this diary uncertain whether I will be alive to finish it or sustain it if I become one of the coronavirus victims. Will I be too ill to continue? Will I die? Things change day-to-day, and suddenly the future is more uncertain than ever before in my lifetime.

No one would have believed, a matter of a few short weeks ago, the changes that this vicious, dangerous pandemic would bring to our lives: the deaths, the uncertainty, the trauma, the separation, and the loss.

This book is intended to bear witness, record statistics, collate news articles, personal stories, front-line accounts, precis government briefings, and offer an intimate view of family life during this historic and tragic period in the year 2020 and beyond.

PART 1 covers the lead into the virus and the first wave taking us in and through the (first) lockdown.

16th March 2020 to 3rd October 2020.

?PART 2 Covers the second wave by the mysterious UK/Kent variant, the Christmas debacle, second lockdown and the race to develop a vaccine.

4th October 2020 to 2nd February 2021.

?PART 3 covers the third wave, the Delta (Indian) variant and the roll-out of the vaccines taking us through the many hoops to get to the so called ‘Freedom Day.’

3rd February 2021 to 19th July 2021.

?*OUT NOW*

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