On this day in 2020...23rd June

Extract from the upcoming book,

 â€˜Coronavirus – 2020 Vision

A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’

- Keith Wright.

?KeithWright2021

TUESDAY 23RD JUNE 2020

42,927 deaths overall in the UK.

171 deaths reported overnight. (170+ were also recorded which have been described as ‘historic’).

Total deaths by each home nation:

Scotland – 2,472.

Wales – 1,483.

Northern Ireland – 545.

England – 38,427.

8,309,929 people have been tested overall in the UK.

306,210 have tested positive for COVID-19 overall in the UK.

280,172 were tested or posted to yesterday.

874 tested positive yesterday and are new cases.

5 pm Press Briefing – Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Professor Sir Patrick Valance and Professor Chris Whitty.

Author’s note. It is announced that today is the last daily government briefing on the coronavirus. There will be further briefings when there is anything of significance to report. (See author’s note at the foot of the briefing section).

A SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS ANNOUNCED.

From 4th July 2020 lockdown is being released. The 5 pillars to enable this to happen have been met according to the Prime Minister. It is exactly three months to the day since we were taken into lockdown. There is still a handful of business that will have to wait, but this is the announcement:

‘Our long national hibernation is coming to an end’ and ‘life is returning to our streets.’

• The 2-metre distancing rule is reduced to 1 metre plus. This means that we should remain at a 2-metre distance where possible, if we cannot then it should be 1 metre plus mitigation behaviours, such as washing of hands, barriers, being outside, orientation - such as turning back-to-back, wearing a face covering.
• Gatherings of two different households can now meet indoors, provided social distancing is maintained.
• More than two households cannot meet indoors. There is currently provision for up to 6 people to meet outside from different households so long as they socially distance.
• Theatres and concert halls can operate once again but cannot stage live performances.
• Museums and Galleries will re-open.
• Hairdressers and Barbers can re-open.
• Restaurants, cafes, workplace canteens, bars, pubs, and cinemas can re-open.
• Most leisure and tourist facilities can re-open.
• People will be able to stay overnight in hotels, bed and breakfasts, and campsites.
• Wedding services of up to 30 people will be allowed with social distancing.  
• Places of worship will be allowed to open.
• Outdoor gyms and playgrounds can be used once more.
• Community centres and bingo halls will be permitted to reopen as well as zoos, wildlife centres and aquariums.            
• Theme parks, adventure parks and funfairs can re-open as can outdoor gyms.            
• Premises that do open up will need to introduce a range of safety measures to ensure they are ‘COVID secure.’            
• Each sector will be given different guidance relevant to their type of business but all will be around the basic tenets of social distancing, cleanliness, being outside and test and trace. Pubs for example have to record every one’s details who visit their pub garden.            
• Quarantine will remain in place for now but is constantly under review.            
• Unfortunately, it is not deemed safe enough to open Spas, casino’s, tattoo parlours, soft play areas, swimming pools, bowling alleys and water parks. Nail bars and beauty salons must also wait before they can re-open. The aspiration is to open these in mid-July.            
• Conference centres and arenas must remain closed for now.

Those are the brakes.

The Prime Minister said that ‘caution will remain our watchword,’ and the government

 â€˜will not hesitate to apply the brakes and re-introduce restrictions even at national level if necessary.’

Professor Whitty said we will,

 â€˜have to live alongside this virus for a prolonged period.’

He said we need to do things which make it harder for the virus: Washing hands. Covering mouth when coughing and wearing face coverings when required. It is imperative that every household complies, or new chains will start up.

 â€˜The changes are not risk-free, but it is a balanced risk. A reasonable one.’ Professor Whitty said he, ‘would be surprised if we are not in this position throughout the winter and even to this time next year.’ Science will resolve it eventually, he said.

Professor Valance supported the comments saying that the virus will not just burn itself out and that therapeutics and vaccines are the only exit.

Author’s note. How do I feel about it? I am cautious, like many. I think we have to take the plunge eventually, although I say this in the knowledge that the virus is still out there and it necessarily follows that the more people exposed to it, the more people will become infected. This could mean a lot of firefighting and if that overwhelms us, we could be in trouble again and back to square one. If everyone complies then I would have a lot more confidence, but we know how idiotic people can be and it boils down to that element of risk and if we can get away with it.

Where does the diary end? Not yet. There is still a lot happening and we need to see how these big changes manifest themselves and whether we have a series of small outbreaks or a second wave. If I had to bet, I would say that a second wave is more likely than not. I intend to continue updating the diary with significant entries, much like the start and periodically update on figures. The only real figures to watch out for is the r rate and the prevalence as well as the death rate. The excess death rate in the UK stands at almost 65,000 people. This is a terrible loss of life. The only sliver of good news is that the excess death rate is currently as low as previous year’s average and the lines on the graphs have converged. We must hope that these do not separate again.

I will take the diary to the 4th July 2020 and beyond. At least two weeks beyond, to see what the impact of the release is on new cases and if there any spikes.

I may take it to when arenas open, but I do not intend to do this if there are several weeks or months gap with no information of note. I see little point.

So, rest assured that the diary will continue to the end of July 2020 at the very least, with regular updates and we may then be back in the new normal when it will be time to bring it to a close.

Author’s retrospective note. Guess what happened! A year later I’m still writing it!

Family life.

It is my daughter’s and my granddaughter’s birthday. We made the most of the situation, but it is not the same during these times.

Stuck in a cycle.

Callum (Jackie’s youngest) came to visit. We social distanced in the garden. He is going crazy being stuck in his flat with no garden, and so he cycled to various parks throughout the day. He is also worried because he and his flatmate, his ex-girlfriend, Lottie, are both now out of work and trying to find employment. Lottie is having her sister’s children at the flat for a week as she cannot cope currently after three months of being inside their flat and has asked Lottie if she could help.

Similarly, Ashley, Jackie’s middle son, is waiting to hear if he has been made redundant, he is cautiously optimistic he won’t be, but it is in abeyance. All of them work at The MotorPoint Arena in Nottingham and there is no hint as to when they may be able to re-open. It may be in the Autumn, but it could just as easily be next year. Hospitality venues have suffered the most.

Stay of execution.

Ashley’s wife April has asked if we can offer childcare for our grand-daughter, little Elsie on Tuesday’s, as she is working from home and Ashley, will have to go straight back to work if he is given a stay of execution. It is impossible for April to be able to work from home with a 1-year-old child, so, of course we agreed with great gusto!

Quote of the day.

‘Life is inherently risky. There is only one big risk you should avoid at all costs, and that is the risk of doing nothing.’ – Denis Waitley.

 ?KeithWright2021

 â€˜Coronavirus – 2020 Vision

A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’

- Keith Wright.

 This day-by-day factual and complete account of events throughout the coronavirus pandemic, written as it happened, gives incredible insight into what life was like during this tragic and historic pandemic in the United Kingdom and worldwide.

It includes facts and figures, government initiatives, news events, moving individual accounts, and the horrific consequences, as they happened each day.

There is also a daily, personal slant on what life was like for the author and his family during what threatened to be an apocalyptic event.

It reveals all humanity in its idiocy, compassion and brilliance; the key elements, significant dates, statistics, human stories, tragedies, government strategies, the twists and turns, the humour and the obtuse.

The coronavirus will define this generation and identify these times, like other rare global historical events such as the bubonic plague and the World Wars.

This book is something to show your children and grandchildren when they ask you what it was like during such a frightening time. It can also be used as a point of reference for historians, commentators, and educators. It is also merely for posterity.

Were you alive? Do you recall it? Do you remember our Prime Minister almost died with Covid-19? Remember, the Queen saying ‘we’ll meet again’ during lockdown? Surely you recollect the EU conducting ‘an act of hostility’ towards the UK to get their hands on our vaccines? The thirty police officers fined for having a haircut, or the first man in the world to be vaccinated being called William Shakespeare from Stratford Upon Avon!

The whole world was plunged into chaos, with death, suffering and economic disaster. How did we cope? How did all of this happen? According to Keith’s wife, Jackie, it was ‘all because a man ate a bat.’ 

Keith Wright previously worked leading Corporate Investigations for a global pharmacy retailer. He has worked on major Crisis Management Incidents alongside senior executives impacting across the world of pharmaceutical product management.

Critically acclaimed crime novelist, and former CID detective, Wright moves from fiction to a factual account of arguably the most historic natural event to blight humanity in modern times.

He has four children and lives in Nottingham, England, with his wife, Jackie.

  All rights reserved ?Keith Wright 2021

Copyright?KeithWright 2021

If you are affected by any issues raised in the book contact:

The Samaritans or check local charities. 

All information believed correct at the time of writing.

 Diary entries gathered from an array of publicly available visual, audio and written sources and merged to give a holistic and creative editorial view.

 Glossary and source lists are available at the end of the book.

This book is dedicated to those who have lost their lives and the extraordinary bravery of front-line NHS staff, key workers, carers, and everyone who, in their own way, have contributed to help others. We are grateful, and we thank you, wholeheartedly.

 Author’s note.

My mother's first husband was killed in World War 2. His name was Arthur Smith. When I spoke with her about it, which, with hindsight, was too infrequently, she said he wasn't a fighter; he was a gentle, kind man, thrown into a hell with which he would struggle to adapt. He was an infantryman who died doing his duty for others, near Geel in Belgium, pushing through from the D-Day landings in 1944.

I use this as a loose analogy for our NHS heroes in the front line. These people are not emergency workers such as the police who are used to conflict and danger, nor are they like firefighters physically battling a fire and saving lives. These are people who have a caring disposition. (Not that the police and firefighters, don't care, bearing in mind that they risk their lives on a daily basis, but you see the point I am making).

 NHS front-line workers are sensitive to the human condition and understand the nuances of helping another human being survive illness and injury. They are also people who have now seen the effects of COVID-19 and the nightmare conditions it engenders. Every fibre of their being is focussed on kindness and caring. Yet they have to find peculiar courage. The courage to risk their own lives and possibly even their families lives to treat others every day. Not only do they have to wear a surgical mask, but they have to display the mask of quiet reassurance, professionalism, and positivity, despite their fears. They have to fight with decisions like holding a hand of an infected dying patient when your COVID instinct dictates you surely must not do this.

Dear reader, this is real courage. I hope they are well looked after once this is all resolved, and they receive counselling to help them recover from this incredibly traumatic time.

BEFORE WE START THE DIARY. WHAT WAS IT ALL ABOUT?

 As I commence this diary, this is what is known; our knowledge will grow over the months and years.

 Coronavirus is a respiratory virus discovered in 2019. In lay-person terms, it causes the lungs to clog up, inhibiting the oxygen supply to the blood, and eventually causing organ failure. Its potency is in how virulently contagious it is. Coronavirus is the virus that leads to the disease COVID-19.

It is believed to be a zoonotic illness, meaning it jumped species to infect humans. Researchers believe the most likely source is the Rhinolophus sinicus, otherwise known as the horseshoe bat which was consumed having been purchased from a ‘wet market’ in Hubei Province, China.

COVID-19 was originally known as 2019-nCoV. It stood for the year of its discovery - 2019, the fact that it was a new (novel) virus (n), and it came from the Corona Virus family (CoV).

 The name was changed to COVID-19 when it became a pandemic. The World Health Organisation had to allocate a name for the disease that did not relate to a person; a group of persons, an animal, a geographic location, was pronounceable, and relatable. Beyond this, the formal name for the virus given by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses called it the 'severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2' or SARS-CoV-2, because it is related to the virus that caused the outbreak of SARS in 2003. For the avoidance of doubt, it will be referred to by the name everyone uses; COVID-19 or ‘Covid.’

Early analysis of the virus suggests that two main strains exist, designated L and S. The L strain appears to be more prevalent (70% of cases); however, it is the S strain that is the ancestral version. L strain appears to be the most aggressive and spreads quickly. It should be noted that this is a new virus to humanity, and we are starting from absolute scratch in our understanding of it. Even as knowledge grows, the chances of mutation are possible, if not probable, and suddenly all bets can be off.

 The coronavirus is transferable by hand to mouth from surfaces or contact and close proximity with someone affected. As with all such viruses, it is also spread by droplets, contact, or airborne particles. It causes a continual dry cough, breathing difficulties, and some aches and pains. Latterly we discovered a loss of taste and smell was also a major symptom. It is a mild to moderate condition for 80 per cent of those who catch it. However, older people and those with underlying illnesses are at a much higher risk of death. As the disease progresses, we see more and more younger able-bodied people in intensive care and dying because of the virus. The World Health Organisation state that 3% of those contracting it will die. There is no cure and no vaccine.

The virus uses its outer prongs to lock on to a living cell. It then inserts its genetic material (RNA – Ribonucleicacid) into the cell. Once inside, it hijacks the machinery of the nucleus of the cell to make numerous copies of itself. It then destroys the cell, and the copies burst out and spread, to do the same thing to multiple other living cells and so the cycle continues, with the virus growing and multiplying exponentially.

The incubation period in a human can be anything from 0-15 days. Some people are asymptomatic and are oblivious to having caught it. Most people's immune system mounts an appropriate response, and they begin to feel better after around 5-7 days after a debilitating flu-like illness. In some people, the immune system goes into overdrive and starts attacking the lungs and other organs and the coronavirus. Infection can cause pneumonia, breathing difficulties, and further organ damage. In others, the immune system cannot cope, and they die. Some can appear to have overcome it and then deteriorate rapidly and die in a day, often with hypoxia – lack of oxygen. Some have been in a coma for 60 plus days, yet still, survive, but forever scarred and impaired.

It is reported that the first case of the disease was presented by a 55-year-old man in Hubei Province, China, on 17th November 2019. It spread and was located in Wuhan Province, China, a month later, in December 2019.

Other theories have emerged around the virus' origins:

• The eating of a diseased bat (or Pangolin) at a wet market. (This seems initially to be the most likely. ‘Pangolin and chips please, no vinegar.’).
• A leak or intentional dispersal from the biological warfare lab situated in Wuhan, China.
• It began in a region south of Wuhan as early as September 2019. Cambridge scientists are exploring the September theory by tracing pathogens. This earlier outbreak could have been carried by humans well before it mutated into a more lethal form.
• Others suggest that traces of faeces in Italy’s sewerage show the virus earlier than it began in China in the summer of 2019. This was later corroborated by research into blood samples of cancer patients taken in early October 2019 which had COVID-19 antibodies present, which means they would have had the disease in September 2019.

Regardless of the exact trigger point, the coronavirus was initially thought to have arrived in the United Kingdom on 28th February 2020, and the first confirmed case being on 31st February 2020. In August 2020, samples by the University of Nottingham discovered that the earliest person to contract and then die with the virus was a 75-year-old woman from Nottinghamshire who tested positive on 21st February 2020.

It is now understood that a traveller returning from South Korea on 28th February 2020 most likely caught the virus in Nottingham rather than Korea as first assumed. Professor John Ball, one of the authors of the study, said ‘there was widespread community transmission of coronavirus’ in Nottingham in early February 2020.

In the UK, we have the National Health Service (NHS). This means that medical care is free at the point of need for all its citizens. The working population pay for this service through their taxes. Each country around the world has different healthcare systems, some insurance based. The NHS does not have any added complications around whether someone can afford to pay for their care through insurance coverage or otherwise.

Key players in the management of this crisis in the United Kingdom are:

Boris Johnson; Prime Minister,

Matt Hancock; the Health Secretary of State,

Dominic Raab; the Foreign & Commonwealth Secretary of State (deputising for the P.M.),

Rishi Sunak; The Chancellor of the Exchequer,

Professor Sir Patrick Vallance; the Chief Scientific Advisor and chair of SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies),

Professor Chris Whitty; the Chief Medical officer for Public Health England,

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam; Deputy Chief Medical Officer for Public Health England.

The virus has caused tens of millions of infections and millions of deaths worldwide, creating a global lock-down and an almost dystopian planet, of death and deserted streets, never before experienced in modern history. Some describe it as an apocalyptic disease. The fabric of society is changed with people told not to socialise and to stay at home. These changes have a massive effect on our way of life, the economy, and family interaction. What will life be like when we come blinking out of our homes in months or years ahead, assuming we survive, into a new world that is changed forever?

Our hope is for a vaccine, yet this is impossible for many months, probably years, if at all. Sadly, the world has been unable to develop a vaccine for any of the previous coronavirus such as SARS, (or even the common cold, which is part of the coronavirus family), so it would be remarkable if they manage to do so with this one.

Immunity after the disease is unclear. There is nothing to suggest that previous sufferers have immunity, nor for how long it will last if they do. There is even the danger of those recovering from COVID-19 gaining, something known as 'enhanced immunity.' This relatively unknown syndrome happens with Dengue fever, which means you get the disease far worse the second time.

I start this diary uncertain whether I will be alive to finish it or sustain it if I become one of the coronavirus victims. Will I be too ill to continue? Will I die? Things change day-to-day, and suddenly the future is more uncertain than ever before in my lifetime.

No one would have believed, a matter of a few short weeks ago, the changes that this vicious, dangerous pandemic would bring to our lives: the deaths, the uncertainty, the trauma, the separation, and the loss.

This book is intended to bear witness, record statistics, collate news articles, personal stories, front-line accounts, precis government briefings, and offer an intimate view of family life during this historic and tragic period in the year 2020 and beyond.

 Anticipated release date July/August 2021.

?KeithWright2021