On this day in 2020...18th May

Extract from the upcoming book,

 ‘Coronavirus – 2020 Vision

A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’

- Keith Wright.

?KeithWright2021

 MONDAY 18TH MAY 2020

Facts and figures.

34,796 deaths overall in the UK.

160 deaths overnight.

2, 682,716 tests have been done overall in the UK.

246,406 have so far tested positive.

100,678 anti-gen tests done yesterday.

2,684 tested positive.

9,408 people are in hospital with COVID-19.

Globally there are 4.7 million confirmed cases and 315,000 deaths.

The figures are starting to show a slow but sure decline across the board, with deaths, patients, and new cases all falling, with testing rising.

 Daily news.

Coaching.

Commuters are facing many challenges as they try to find a route back to work. Railway services are slowly grinding back into place with various measures employed to make passengers safe, but this drastically reduces availability. Seats are blocked off, and there is no face-to-face seating. They must hold a reservation as well as a ticket. Passengers are asked to sit in a window seat with one person per row of four seats, two empty rows between each passenger, and wear a mask.

People from the same household may sit together. As with teachers, railway unions have advised union members they will be supported if they refuse to work on safety grounds.

Picnic perk in park.

Another spell of hot weather is upon us, with temperatures expected to rise to 28 degrees in some parts of the country. People will, for the first time in weeks, have greater scope to enjoy the weather since the lockdown began. They can:

• Enjoy time outdoors, sunbathing or picnicking in parks and beauty spots.
• Travel to an outdoor space with members of your household but observe social distancing, by keeping 2 metres distance.
• Meet one person from a different household outdoors only, while social distancing.
• Exercise outdoors as often as you like.
• Use a tennis, or basketball court, or a golf course with a member of your household or one other person if you social distance from the one other person.
• Go to a garden centre.

Not app’ening.

The trial on the Isle of Wight has exceeded expectations with regard to the number of people who have downloaded the NHS Track and Trace app. Sky News spoke with the Isle of Wight MP Bob Seely, who said,

 ‘We are well ahead of what we hoped. When the figure goes above 20% (of the population) you begin to get good evidence, over 50%, and you start suppressing the virus and over 60%, and you get the benefits of the app working.’

This is excellent news; however, there is an issue lurking behind it, causing concern. The app was due to be rolled out to the country from mid-May, which is now. However, we are learning that it will be several weeks before this happens.

Rumours are rife that the app is not working, and the government is looking for an alternative. Something is certainly wrong because the roll-out has been postponed by weeks and no date given as to when this might be.

This matters, because a comprehensive track and trace system is key to protecting the public as we come out of lockdown. The concern now is that we are coming out of lockdown, and nobody has contemplated the potential for the app to fail, so we release the measures with no supporting safety infrastructure.

A pair of scandals.

There is no doubt that one day, when all of this is reviewed, some of the catastrophic mistakes made will be exposed. They fall off the tongue; testing failures, lack of preparedness, lack of PPE, slowness to react, changing tack from the herd immunity approach, and care homes; not least releasing hospital patients with COVID-19 to Care homes.

At least 12,500 care home residents have died after contracting COVID-19. Excess deaths in care homes, stands at an additional 22,000 lives lost.

It seems to me that the Care Home scandal is most damaging, not least sending COVID-19 patients to care homes without requiring negative testing (most likely to clear hospital beds in the chaos).

Before the 15th April 2020, government care home advice said:

 ‘Negative tests are not required prior to transfer/admissions into the care home.’

ITN News has suggested that 40% of care homes have had outbreaks of coronavirus, with at least 5,889 care homes reporting one, as of 17th May 2020.

Grant Shapps actually said at the press briefing on 14th May that three-quarters of care homes had not been touched by COVID, which is misleading if ITN are correct. If we are being misinformed by government catastrophe will follow.

These are all potential scandals, but many countries are facing similar criticisms. There were some powerful images in Belgium when Prime Minister Sophie Wilmes visited a hospital. As her car arrived, the hospital's driveway was lined with scores of nurses and medical staff, who all turned their backs on her car as it slowly went past them.

It was in protest of the decision to allow ‘unqualified staff’ to undertake nursing duties during the pandemic.

Belgium has a high death rate per population; they have had 54,989 infections, with a tiny population of 11.5 million. 9,005 people have died with COVID-19.

Belissimo.

In Italy the number of deaths yesterday was 145, which is the lowest since 9th March 2020, they are opening bars and restaurants on Monday and in Spain the deaths yesterday were 87, which is the fewest in two months.

Globe theatre.

Each part of the world is meeting the challenges of those countries before them, in this first wave, which is now sweeping the globe. The mayor of Brazil’s largest city, Sao Paulo, has said that its health system is close to collapse.

Net result.

The Premier League voted unanimously to start training in small groups from tomorrow – Tuesday. There are still no details as to when the season may restart, if at all.

The Scottish Premier League has ended the season early and declared Celtic as Champions as they were top of the table when it was paused.

5 pm Press Briefing – Dominic Raab Secretary of State for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.

Mr Raab confirmed that the Health Secretary Matt Hancock has announced that all persons over 5 years old with symptoms can now be tested.

Matt Hancock had earlier told the House of Commons that 21,000 contact tracers had been recruited, including 7,500 healthcare professionals who will support call handlers with ‘expert clinical advice.’

Author’s note: I digress from the briefing to Mr Hancock’s speech to the House, during which MP Phillip Dunne asked whether people who get the antibody test (tells whether you have you ever had coronavirus) can put their results into the track and trace app.

Mr Hancock said that the idea ‘is a very good one.’

Now, call me old fashioned, but surely this is self-evident? The reaction is one that suggests Mr Hancock had never thought of such a thing. Strange.

A clump of professors.

Back to the briefing – Professor Jonathan Van Tam, who is rapidly becoming my favourite on my list of most engaging Professors, (surely everyone has such a list?) has said there is uncertainty around whether the coronavirus is seasonal or not. In other words, could it start to re-emerge in Autumn and Winter like flu viruses? Some coronaviruses are not seasonal.

Author’s note. Let us hope it isn’t seasonal, although, I must admit when I have pondered this question before I always think about Spain and Italy and their much hotter climates, which did not seem to put the virus off at all.

We have confirmation that the app will now not be ready for mid-May as expected, but it is ‘some weeks’ away, according to Mr Raab. He could not confirm that it would be ready for 1st June when the schools are due to open up when asked by Sky’s Beth Rigby.

A clutch of symptoms.

Professor Van Tam has also confirmed that ‘anosmia’ - a lack of smell and taste, is now being added to the list of symptoms in the UK for COVID-19, and if they have it, they should self-isolate. We know that this phenomenon has been around for a while, but always accompanied by the two prominent symptoms of cough and temperature. Very rarely is it on its own.

Professor JVT says that adding it to the symptoms means that 2% more cases would be identified. Research is varied – between 13% and 50% of COVID-19 patients experience anosmia. This does not mean they have the symptom in isolation, however. The thinking, quite rightly, is that there could be too many symptoms clouding the issue and forcing unnecessary self-isolation when there are symptoms that are always evident, with which to focus on. Tiredness and diarrhoea are also typical symptoms; there are about 14 different symptoms in total.

The World Health Authority lists the coronavirus symptoms as:

Fever.

Cough.

Tiredness.

Aches and Pains

Sore throat.

Diarrhoea.

Conjunctivitis.

Headache.

Loss of taste or smell.

A rash on skin, or discolouration of fingers and toes.

Professor Van Tam ends by soberly reminding us that,

 ‘we may have to learn to live with this virus for months if not years.’

Family life.

I took Jackie to Boots the Chemist for her prescription and called into Halfords to get a bicycle. There was a guy behind a desk just inside the door who said that browsing was not allowed, and I could only order online and collect from the store. It looks like I will be doing on-line ‘browsing.’

After much messing around, I ordered one from a nearby bike store, albeit online. Because of the current crisis, I will have to wait 5-10 days to collect it.

Walking back.

Jackie and I went for a walk to stretch our legs, giddy with new found freedom. We walked the same distance as we did when the lockdown started and realised, we are certainly no fitter. I have now inexplicably hurt my back.

Quote of the day:

‘You may delay, but time will not, and lost time is never found again.’ – Benjamin Franklin.

?KeithWright2021

‘Coronavirus – 2020 Vision

A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’

- Keith Wright.

 This day-by-day factual and complete account of events throughout the coronavirus pandemic, written as it happened, gives incredible insight into what life was like during this tragic and historic pandemic in the United Kingdom and worldwide.

It includes facts and figures, government initiatives, news events, moving individual accounts, and the horrific consequences, as they happened each day.

There is also a daily, personal slant on what life was like for the author and his family during what threatened to be an apocalyptic event.

It reveals all humanity in its idiocy, compassion and brilliance; the key elements, significant dates, statistics, human stories, tragedies, government strategies, the twists and turns, the humour and the obtuse.

The coronavirus will define this generation and identify these times, like other rare global historical events such as the bubonic plague and the World Wars.

This book is something to show your children and grandchildren when they ask you what it was like during such a frightening time. It can also be used as a point of reference for historians, commentators, and educators. It is also merely for posterity.

Were you alive? Do you recall it? Do you remember our Prime Minister almost died with Covid-19? Remember, the Queen saying ‘we’ll meet again’ during lockdown? Surely you recollect the EU conducting ‘an act of hostility’ towards the UK to get their hands on our vaccines? The thirty police officers fined for having a haircut, or the first man in the world to be vaccinated being called William Shakespeare from Stratford Upon Avon!

The whole world was plunged into chaos, with death, suffering and economic disaster. How did we cope? How did all of this happen? According to Keith’s wife, Jackie, it was ‘all because a man ate a bat.’

Keith Wright previously worked leading Corporate Investigations for a global pharmacy retailer. He has worked on major Crisis Management Incidents alongside senior executives impacting across the world of pharmaceutical product management.

Critically acclaimed crime novelist, and former CID detective, Wright moves from fiction to a factual account of arguably the most historic natural event to blight humanity in modern times.

He has four children and lives in Nottingham, England, with his wife, Jackie.

 All rights reserved ?Keith Wright 2021

Copyright?KeithWright 2021

If you are affected by any issues raised in the book contact:

The Samaritans or check local charities.

 All information believed correct at the time of writing.

 Diary entries gathered from an array of publicly available visual, audio and written sources and merged to give a holistic and creative editorial view.

 Glossary and source lists are available at the end of the book.

 This book is dedicated to those who have lost their lives and the extraordinary bravery of front-line NHS staff, key workers, carers, and everyone who, in their own way, have contributed to help others. We are grateful, and we thank you, wholeheartedly.

 Author’s note.

My mother's first husband was killed in World War 2. His name was Arthur Smith. When I spoke with her about it, which, with hindsight, was too infrequently, she said he wasn't a fighter; he was a gentle, kind man, thrown into a hell with which he would struggle to adapt. He was an infantryman who died doing his duty for others, near Geel in Belgium, pushing through from the D-Day landings in 1944.

I use this as a loose analogy for our NHS heroes in the front line. These people are not emergency workers such as the police who are used to conflict and danger, nor are they like firefighters physically battling a fire and saving lives. These are people who have a caring disposition. (Not that the police and firefighters, don't care, bearing in mind that they risk their lives on a daily basis, but you see the point I am making).

 NHS front-line workers are sensitive to the human condition and understand the nuances of helping another human being survive illness and injury. They are also people who have now seen the effects of COVID-19 and the nightmare conditions it engenders. Every fibre of their being is focussed on kindness and caring. Yet they have to find peculiar courage. The courage to risk their own lives and possibly even their families lives to treat others every day. Not only do they have to wear a surgical mask, but they have to display the mask of quiet reassurance, professionalism, and positivity, despite their fears. They have to fight with decisions like holding a hand of an infected dying patient when your COVID instinct dictates you surely must not do this.

Dear reader, this is real courage. I hope they are well looked after once this is all resolved, and they receive counselling to help them recover from this incredibly traumatic time.

BEFORE WE START THE DIARY. WHAT WAS IT ALL ABOUT?

 As I commence this diary, this is what is known; our knowledge will grow over the months and years.

 Coronavirus is a respiratory virus discovered in 2019. In lay-person terms, it causes the lungs to clog up, inhibiting the oxygen supply to the blood, and eventually causing organ failure. Its potency is in how virulently contagious it is. Coronavirus is the virus that leads to the disease COVID-19.

It is believed to be a zoonotic illness, meaning it jumped species to infect humans. Researchers believe the most likely source is the Rhinolophus sinicus, otherwise known as the horseshoe bat which was consumed having been purchased from a ‘wet market’ in Hubei Province, China.

COVID-19 was originally known as 2019-nCoV. It stood for the year of its discovery - 2019, the fact that it was a new (novel) virus (n), and it came from the Corona Virus family (CoV).

 The name was changed to COVID-19 when it became a pandemic. The World Health Organisation had to allocate a name for the disease that did not relate to a person; a group of persons, an animal, a geographic location, was pronounceable, and relatable. Beyond this, the formal name for the virus given by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses called it the 'severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2' or SARS-CoV-2, because it is related to the virus that caused the outbreak of SARS in 2003. For the avoidance of doubt, it will be referred to by the name everyone uses; COVID-19 or ‘Covid.’

Early analysis of the virus suggests that two main strains exist, designated L and S. The L strain appears to be more prevalent (70% of cases); however, it is the S strain that is the ancestral version. L strain appears to be the most aggressive and spreads quickly. It should be noted that this is a new virus to humanity, and we are starting from absolute scratch in our understanding of it. Even as knowledge grows, the chances of mutation are possible, if not probable, and suddenly all bets can be off.

 The coronavirus is transferable by hand to mouth from surfaces or contact and close proximity with someone affected. As with all such viruses, it is also spread by droplets, contact, or airborne particles. It causes a continual dry cough, breathing difficulties, and some aches and pains. Latterly we discovered a loss of taste and smell was also a major symptom. It is a mild to moderate condition for 80 per cent of those who catch it. However, older people and those with underlying illnesses are at a much higher risk of death. As the disease progresses, we see more and more younger able-bodied people in intensive care and dying because of the virus. The World Health Organisation state that 3% of those contracting it will die. There is no cure and no vaccine.

The virus uses its outer prongs to lock on to a living cell. It then inserts its genetic material (RNA – Ribonucleicacid) into the cell. Once inside, it hijacks the machinery of the nucleus of the cell to make numerous copies of itself. It then destroys the cell, and the copies burst out and spread, to do the same thing to multiple other living cells and so the cycle continues, with the virus growing and multiplying exponentially.

The incubation period in a human can be anything from 0-15 days. Some people are asymptomatic and are oblivious to having caught it. Most people's immune system mounts an appropriate response, and they begin to feel better after around 5-7 days after a debilitating flu-like illness. In some people, the immune system goes into overdrive and starts attacking the lungs and other organs and the coronavirus. Infection can cause pneumonia, breathing difficulties, and further organ damage. In others, the immune system cannot cope, and they die. Some can appear to have overcome it and then deteriorate rapidly and die in a day, often with hypoxia – lack of oxygen. Some have been in a coma for 60 plus days, yet still, survive, but forever scarred and impaired.

It is reported that the first case of the disease was presented by a 55-year-old man in Hubei Province, China, on 17th November 2019. It spread and was located in Wuhan Province, China, a month later, in December 2019.

Other theories have emerged around the virus' origins:

• The eating of a diseased bat (or Pangolin) at a wet market. (This seems initially to be the most likely. ‘Pangolin and chips please, no vinegar.’).
• A leak or intentional dispersal from the biological warfare lab situated in Wuhan, China.
• It began in a region south of Wuhan as early as September 2019. Cambridge scientists are exploring the September theory by tracing pathogens. This earlier outbreak could have been carried by humans well before it mutated into a more lethal form.
• Others suggest that traces of faeces in Italy’s sewerage show the virus earlier than it began in China in the summer of 2019. This was later corroborated by research into blood samples of cancer patients taken in early October 2019 which had COVID-19 antibodies present, which means they would have had the disease in September 2019.

Regardless of the exact trigger point, the coronavirus was initially thought to have arrived in the United Kingdom on 28th February 2020, and the first confirmed case being on 31st February 2020. In August 2020, samples by the University of Nottingham discovered that the earliest person to contract and then die with the virus was a 75-year-old woman from Nottinghamshire who tested positive on 21st February 2020.

It is now understood that a traveller returning from South Korea on 28th February 2020 most likely caught the virus in Nottingham rather than Korea as first assumed. Professor John Ball, one of the authors of the study, said ‘there was widespread community transmission of coronavirus’ in Nottingham in early February 2020.

In the UK, we have the National Health Service (NHS). This means that medical care is free at the point of need for all its citizens. The working population pay for this service through their taxes. Each country around the world has different healthcare systems, some insurance based. The NHS does not have any added complications around whether someone can afford to pay for their care through insurance coverage or otherwise.

Key players in the management of this crisis in the United Kingdom are:

Boris Johnson; Prime Minister,

Matt Hancock; the Health Secretary of State,

Dominic Raab; the Foreign & Commonwealth Secretary of State (deputising for the P.M.),

Rishi Sunak; The Chancellor of the Exchequer,

Professor Sir Patrick Vallance; the Chief Scientific Advisor and chair of SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies),

Professor Chris Whitty; the Chief Medical officer for Public Health England,

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam; Deputy Chief Medical Officer for Public Health England.

The virus has caused tens of millions of infections and millions of deaths worldwide, creating a global lock-down and an almost dystopian planet, of death and deserted streets, never before experienced in modern history. Some describe it as an apocalyptic disease. The fabric of society is changed with people told not to socialise and to stay at home. These changes have a massive effect on our way of life, the economy, and family interaction. What will life be like when we come blinking out of our homes in months or years ahead, assuming we survive, into a new world that is changed forever?

Our hope is for a vaccine, yet this is impossible for many months, probably years, if at all. Sadly, the world has been unable to develop a vaccine for any of the previous coronavirus such as SARS, (or even the common cold, which is part of the coronavirus family), so it would be remarkable if they manage to do so with this one.

Immunity after the disease is unclear. There is nothing to suggest that previous sufferers have immunity, nor for how long it will last if they do. There is even the danger of those recovering from COVID-19 gaining, something known as 'enhanced immunity.' This relatively unknown syndrome happens with Denghi fever, which means you get the disease far worse the second time.

I start this diary uncertain whether I will be alive to finish it or sustain it if I become one of the coronavirus victims. Will I be too ill to continue? Will I die? Things change day-to-day, and suddenly the future is more uncertain than ever before in my lifetime.

No one would have believed, a matter of a few short weeks ago, the changes that this vicious, dangerous pandemic would bring to our lives: the deaths, the uncertainty, the trauma, the separation, and the loss.

This book is intended to bear witness, record statistics, collate news articles, personal stories, front-line accounts, precis government briefings, and offer an intimate view of family life during this historic and tragic period in the year 2020 and beyond.

Release date July 2021.

?KeithWright2021