On this day in 2020...16th June

Extract from the upcoming book,

 ‘Coronavirus – 2020 Vision

A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’

- Keith Wright.

?KeithWright2021

TUESDAY 16TH JUNE 2020

Facts and figures.

41,969 deaths tested for COVID-19 in the UK.

233 deaths recorded yesterday.

6,981,493 tests have so far been completed or dispatched in the UK.

298,136 of these have tested positive overall.

113, 107 tests were sent or completed yesterday.

1,279 tested positive and are new cases.

5,254 people are in hospital with COVID-19.

Excessive death.

ONS figures put England and Wales at 47,104 fatalities, counting those death certificates where COVID-19 is mentioned as a cause.

Moving on to excess deaths, which will be the figure used by WHO when the pandemics are reviewed, the UK stands at 64,500 deaths from COVID-19.

UB40

Between March and May 2020, 600,000 UK workers were taken off the payroll. This is set to rise massively, I suspect.

Unemployment currently stands at 2.8 million people while 9.1 million people have been furloughed. Will they have jobs to return to?

During this period, a total of 959.9 million weekly hours were worked across the country, which is a decrease of almost 10% - 94.2 million down from last year.

Between March and May 2020, job vacancies fell to 476,000 down by 342,000 from the previous quarter; this is a considerable amount.

Latin America.

There have been more than 8 million confirmed virus cases worldwide, according to Johns Hopkins University and more than 436,000 deaths globally so far.

The USA has reported the most COVID-19 deaths with 116,000, (2.1 million cases) followed by Brazil with 890,000 cases and the UK.

Peru has 232,000 cases, and Chile has 179,000.

Latin America is leaning into becoming the centre of the virus. Deaths are also rising fast in Mexico, India and Pakistan.

Parent power.

Here in the UK, while most children are off school, The National Foundation for Educational Research says Head Teachers are finding that around a third of pupils are not engaging with set work.

Limited or no access to technology for 23% of pupils was a problem. The government has donated money to supply devices to children without any such access. Maybe these are the poor souls trapped in the income bracket who cannot access benefits but don’t have spare cash for luxuries; the forgotten sector. Their children often go without it seems to me.

Teachers say that 55% of their pupil's parents are engaged with their children’s home learning. Teachers in the most deprived schools report a lower percentage – 41%.

In the least disadvantaged schools, parental engagement is higher at 62%.

In another study by UCL Institute of Education, we get some hard figures, stating around 2.3 million children in the UK have done almost no schoolwork at home since lockdown in March 2020.

 Daily news.

Hailing in China.

Since its recent outbreak scare in Beijing, China has tightened its measures, despite having had no cases for the previous 50 days. Close contacts of those infected are banned from leaving the city, hailing taxis, and long-distance bus routes are suspended. Shanghai has now started requiring travellers from high-risk areas of China to quarantine for 14 days.

Acting up.

Next year’s Oscar ceremony has been pushed back by two months and will take place on 25th April 2021 instead of 28th February.

The BAFTAs, British Academy Film Awards has also been pushed back to 11th April 2021.

5 pm Press Briefing – Boris Johnson. The Prime Minister.

He is joined by Professor Patrick Valance, Chief Scientific Officer and Professor Peter Horby, ‘Emerging Infectious Diseases’ at Oxford University.

*MAJOR BREAKTHROUGH IS ANNOUNCED.*

Terrific news. Oxford University has trialled a drug that is significantly cutting deaths of people seriously ill with COVID-19. This is described as a ‘major breakthrough.’

It is the most significant breakthrough yet in the world discovered by British scientists. The drug is proven to reduce deaths caused by COVID-19.

The drug is dexamethasone and is available across the NHS and steps have been taken to ensure that we have sufficient supply even if we have a second wave. The drug has been mentioned on the fringes as having potential, but it seems it has risen to prime status in the wake of the clinical trial.

The Prime Minister says there is a genuine reason to celebrate a British cause that will benefit people around the world. The study led by Professor Peter Horby involved thousands of people and is called The Recovery Study (Randomised Evaluation of Covid-19 therapy). Professor Jonathan Van Tam has been instrumental in this work also.

The Prime Minister handed over to Peter Horby to give details. More than 175 hospitals have been involved in the trial. 11,500 patients are included in the biggest clinical trial on the planet. They have been testing 6 different drugs.

It’s been around the block.

Dexamethasone is a drug that has been around for 60 years. It costs pounds, and in other countries, it costs mere pennies. It is a steroid and has an effect on different types of patient groups:

• A 10-day course by tablet or injection reduces the chance of death by 35% in ventilated patients.
• Patients who are on the ward and yet to be admitted to ICU, but need oxygen, have death rates reduced by 20%.
• There is no benefit to those who do not have breathing difficulties.

The team are continuing with the overall ‘Recovery’ project as there are 4 other drugs left to trial, and they hope to build on this foundation and increase the benefits through other drugs.

This is indeed ‘a great breakthrough.’ It shows it is possible to reduce the inflammation and save lives and the possibility of adding further drugs to it, to enhance efficacy and improve the chances of even more people to survive this plague.

Authors note: This is fantastic news. How amazing that something that we know to be safe and has been around for decades can impact on COVID-19 so effectively. Just in time for the second wave.

We have seen the effects of this debilitating, foul disease, and so everyone needs to be vigilant still, because of the horror of the experience and the after-effects, which could be life changing.

It needs to be said that it is still deadly, killing tens of thousands, and we should avoid the virus, like…the plague.

Professor Valance talked about the prevalence of the coronavirus in the UK and informed us that according to the latest ONS figures, 6 out of every 10,000 people have the infection currently. Let’s hope we don’t go and spoil it as a large chunk of the lockdown is being released this week.

Family life.

It is a big day for my partner, Jackie, as she is to go to work at 3 pm for her COVID induction. She works for a major clothes and home retailer. Upon her return, we learn of the welcome and detailed provisions they have put in place to protect customers and staff.

It is a complex protocol:

• Barriers outside for customers.
• If space allowed to accommodate queuing customers is exceeded, the shop must be closed to remedy it.
• 2m rule.
• Staff to attend work wearing lanyard and face visor.
• Your temperature will be taken at the door. If it is too high, you cannot enter.
• Glass screen separating exit and entry, with sanitiser station and wipes, as well as placed around the store.
• One way system in place.
• Only 44 persons allowed in the store at any one time, including staff. (Average of 7).
• On the bank of three tills, the middle till cannot be used. End tills have Perspex screens.
• Customer to put clothes on the till and step back, while they are rung through the till.
• Card payments or Apple Pay only. No cash.
• If customers don’t comply with social distancing, staff can politely request, if they still don’t store co-ordinators come to disperse the group or ask them to leave. It is the co-ordinators’ role to monitor how many customers are in the store and relevant departments.
• All fitting rooms are closed.
• Returned items must be isolated for 72 hours and not put back on sale. This is to be done by placing all returns in changing room 1. Co-ordinators will then move them to changing room 2 the following day and then changing room 3 to ensure they are isolated for the correct amount of time.
• Only 1 person or 1 household allowed in the lift.
• Staff have a one-way system in the back shop and non-shop areas.
• Employees have three tables in the staff kitchen, only one person to sit at each table at a time, and markings on the floor showing where you cannot stand, or you would breach the 2m distance.
• Staff kitchen has no crockery, no utensils, no toaster and no microwave.
• Staff to note that whatever food you brought with you, you must take away with you. Anything left behind in the fridge will be destroyed.
• Staff must use ‘quarantine bins’ to dispose of gloves or masks. Faceguards are mandatory; additional face masks are optional.
• Anything removed such as Faceguards must be disinfected before re-use.
• Keypads, payment machines and surfaces constantly sanitised.

Quote of the day.

‘At the very moment when people underestimate you is when you can make a breakthrough.’ – Germany Kent

 ?KeithWright2021

 ‘Coronavirus – 2020 Vision

A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’

- Keith Wright.

 This day-by-day factual and complete account of events throughout the coronavirus pandemic, written as it happened, gives incredible insight into what life was like during this tragic and historic pandemic in the United Kingdom and worldwide.

It includes facts and figures, government initiatives, news events, moving individual accounts, and the horrific consequences, as they happened each day.

There is also a daily, personal slant on what life was like for the author and his family during what threatened to be an apocalyptic event.

It reveals all humanity in its idiocy, compassion and brilliance; the key elements, significant dates, statistics, human stories, tragedies, government strategies, the twists and turns, the humour and the obtuse.

The coronavirus will define this generation and identify these times, like other rare global historical events such as the bubonic plague and the World Wars.

This book is something to show your children and grandchildren when they ask you what it was like during such a frightening time. It can also be used as a point of reference for historians, commentators, and educators. It is also merely for posterity.

Were you alive? Do you recall it? Do you remember our Prime Minister almost died with Covid-19? Remember, the Queen saying ‘we’ll meet again’ during lockdown? Surely you recollect the EU conducting ‘an act of hostility’ towards the UK to get their hands on our vaccines? The thirty police officers fined for having a haircut, or the first man in the world to be vaccinated being called William Shakespeare from Stratford Upon Avon!

The whole world was plunged into chaos, with death, suffering and economic disaster. How did we cope? How did all of this happen? According to Keith’s wife, Jackie, it was ‘all because a man ate a bat.’

 Keith Wright previously worked leading Corporate Investigations for a global pharmacy retailer. He has worked on major Crisis Management Incidents alongside senior executives impacting across the world of pharmaceutical product management.

Critically acclaimed crime novelist, and former CID detective, Wright moves from fiction to a factual account of arguably the most historic natural event to blight humanity in modern times.

He has four children and lives in Nottingham, England, with his wife, Jackie.

All rights reserved ?Keith Wright 2021

Copyright?KeithWright 2021

 If you are affected by any issues raised in the book contact:

The Samaritans or check local charities.

 All information believed correct at the time of writing.

 Diary entries gathered from an array of publicly available visual, audio and written sources and merged to give a holistic and creative editorial view.

 Glossary and source lists are available at the end of the book.

This book is dedicated to those who have lost their lives and the extraordinary bravery of front-line NHS staff, key workers, carers, and everyone who, in their own way, have contributed to help others. We are grateful, and we thank you, wholeheartedly.

 Author’s note.

My mother's first husband was killed in World War 2. His name was Arthur Smith. When I spoke with her about it, which, with hindsight, was too infrequently, she said he wasn't a fighter; he was a gentle, kind man, thrown into a hell with which he would struggle to adapt. He was an infantryman who died doing his duty for others, near Geel in Belgium, pushing through from the D-Day landings in 1944.

I use this as a loose analogy for our NHS heroes in the front line. These people are not emergency workers such as the police who are used to conflict and danger, nor are they like firefighters physically battling a fire and saving lives. These are people who have a caring disposition. (Not that the police and firefighters, don't care, bearing in mind that they risk their lives on a daily basis, but you see the point I am making).

 NHS front-line workers are sensitive to the human condition and understand the nuances of helping another human being survive illness and injury. They are also people who have now seen the effects of COVID-19 and the nightmare conditions it engenders. Every fibre of their being is focussed on kindness and caring. Yet they have to find peculiar courage. The courage to risk their own lives and possibly even their families lives to treat others every day. Not only do they have to wear a surgical mask, but they have to display the mask of quiet reassurance, professionalism, and positivity, despite their fears. They have to fight with decisions like holding a hand of an infected dying patient when your COVID instinct dictates you surely must not do this.

Dear reader, this is real courage. I hope they are well looked after once this is all resolved, and they receive counselling to help them recover from this incredibly traumatic time.

BEFORE WE START THE DIARY. WHAT WAS IT ALL ABOUT?

 As I commence this diary, this is what is known; our knowledge will grow over the months and years.

 Coronavirus is a respiratory virus discovered in 2019. In lay-person terms, it causes the lungs to clog up, inhibiting the oxygen supply to the blood, and eventually causing organ failure. Its potency is in how virulently contagious it is. Coronavirus is the virus that leads to the disease COVID-19.

It is believed to be a zoonotic illness, meaning it jumped species to infect humans. Researchers believe the most likely source is the Rhinolophus sinicus, otherwise known as the horseshoe bat which was consumed having been purchased from a ‘wet market’ in Hubei Province, China.

COVID-19 was originally known as 2019-nCoV. It stood for the year of its discovery - 2019, the fact that it was a new (novel) virus (n), and it came from the Corona Virus family (CoV).

 The name was changed to COVID-19 when it became a pandemic. The World Health Organisation had to allocate a name for the disease that did not relate to a person; a group of persons, an animal, a geographic location, was pronounceable, and relatable. Beyond this, the formal name for the virus given by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses called it the 'severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2' or SARS-CoV-2, because it is related to the virus that caused the outbreak of SARS in 2003. For the avoidance of doubt, it will be referred to by the name everyone uses; COVID-19 or ‘Covid.’

Early analysis of the virus suggests that two main strains exist, designated L and S. The L strain appears to be more prevalent (70% of cases); however, it is the S strain that is the ancestral version. L strain appears to be the most aggressive and spreads quickly. It should be noted that this is a new virus to humanity, and we are starting from absolute scratch in our understanding of it. Even as knowledge grows, the chances of mutation are possible, if not probable, and suddenly all bets can be off.

 The coronavirus is transferable by hand to mouth from surfaces or contact and close proximity with someone affected. As with all such viruses, it is also spread by droplets, contact, or airborne particles. It causes a continual dry cough, breathing difficulties, and some aches and pains. Latterly we discovered a loss of taste and smell was also a major symptom. It is a mild to moderate condition for 80 per cent of those who catch it. However, older people and those with underlying illnesses are at a much higher risk of death. As the disease progresses, we see more and more younger able-bodied people in intensive care and dying because of the virus. The World Health Organisation state that 3% of those contracting it will die. There is no cure and no vaccine.

The virus uses its outer prongs to lock on to a living cell. It then inserts its genetic material (RNA – Ribonucleicacid) into the cell. Once inside, it hijacks the machinery of the nucleus of the cell to make numerous copies of itself. It then destroys the cell, and the copies burst out and spread, to do the same thing to multiple other living cells and so the cycle continues, with the virus growing and multiplying exponentially.

The incubation period in a human can be anything from 0-15 days. Some people are asymptomatic and are oblivious to having caught it. Most people's immune system mounts an appropriate response, and they begin to feel better after around 5-7 days after a debilitating flu-like illness. In some people, the immune system goes into overdrive and starts attacking the lungs and other organs and the coronavirus. Infection can cause pneumonia, breathing difficulties, and further organ damage. In others, the immune system cannot cope, and they die. Some can appear to have overcome it and then deteriorate rapidly and die in a day, often with hypoxia – lack of oxygen. Some have been in a coma for 60 plus days, yet still, survive, but forever scarred and impaired.

It is reported that the first case of the disease was presented by a 55-year-old man in Hubei Province, China, on 17th November 2019. It spread and was located in Wuhan Province, China, a month later, in December 2019.

Other theories have emerged around the virus' origins:

• The eating of a diseased bat (or Pangolin) at a wet market. (This seems initially to be the most likely. ‘Pangolin and chips please, no vinegar.’).
• A leak or intentional dispersal from the biological warfare lab situated in Wuhan, China.
• It began in a region south of Wuhan as early as September 2019. Cambridge scientists are exploring the September theory by tracing pathogens. This earlier outbreak could have been carried by humans well before it mutated into a more lethal form.
• Others suggest that traces of faeces in Italy’s sewerage show the virus earlier than it began in China in the summer of 2019. This was later corroborated by research into blood samples of cancer patients taken in early October 2019 which had COVID-19 antibodies present, which means they would have had the disease in September 2019.

Regardless of the exact trigger point, the coronavirus was initially thought to have arrived in the United Kingdom on 28th February 2020, and the first confirmed case being on 31st February 2020. In August 2020, samples by the University of Nottingham discovered that the earliest person to contract and then die with the virus was a 75-year-old woman from Nottinghamshire who tested positive on 21st February 2020.

It is now understood that a traveller returning from South Korea on 28th February 2020 most likely caught the virus in Nottingham rather than Korea as first assumed. Professor John Ball, one of the authors of the study, said ‘there was widespread community transmission of coronavirus’ in Nottingham in early February 2020.

In the UK, we have the National Health Service (NHS). This means that medical care is free at the point of need for all its citizens. The working population pay for this service through their taxes. Each country around the world has different healthcare systems, some insurance based. The NHS does not have any added complications around whether someone can afford to pay for their care through insurance coverage or otherwise.

Key players in the management of this crisis in the United Kingdom are:

Boris Johnson; Prime Minister,

Matt Hancock; the Health Secretary of State,

Dominic Raab; the Foreign & Commonwealth Secretary of State (deputising for the P.M.),

Rishi Sunak; The Chancellor of the Exchequer,

Professor Sir Patrick Vallance; the Chief Scientific Advisor and chair of SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies),

Professor Chris Whitty; the Chief Medical officer for Public Health England,

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam; Deputy Chief Medical Officer for Public Health England.

The virus has caused tens of millions of infections and millions of deaths worldwide, creating a global lock-down and an almost dystopian planet, of death and deserted streets, never before experienced in modern history. Some describe it as an apocalyptic disease. The fabric of society is changed with people told not to socialise and to stay at home. These changes have a massive effect on our way of life, the economy, and family interaction. What will life be like when we come blinking out of our homes in months or years ahead, assuming we survive, into a new world that is changed forever?

Our hope is for a vaccine, yet this is impossible for many months, probably years, if at all. Sadly, the world has been unable to develop a vaccine for any of the previous coronavirus such as SARS, (or even the common cold, which is part of the coronavirus family), so it would be remarkable if they manage to do so with this one.

Immunity after the disease is unclear. There is nothing to suggest that previous sufferers have immunity, nor for how long it will last if they do. There is even the danger of those recovering from COVID-19 gaining, something known as 'enhanced immunity.' This relatively unknown syndrome happens with Dengue fever, which means you get the disease far worse the second time.

I start this diary uncertain whether I will be alive to finish it or sustain it if I become one of the coronavirus victims. Will I be too ill to continue? Will I die? Things change day-to-day, and suddenly the future is more uncertain than ever before in my lifetime.

No one would have believed, a matter of a few short weeks ago, the changes that this vicious, dangerous pandemic would bring to our lives: the deaths, the uncertainty, the trauma, the separation, and the loss.

This book is intended to bear witness, record statistics, collate news articles, personal stories, front-line accounts, precis government briefings, and offer an intimate view of family life during this historic and tragic period in the year 2020 and beyond.

Anticipated release date July/ August 2021.

?KeithWright2021