On this day in 2020...15th July
Keith Wright
Writer - Author of the Inspector Stark series of crime thrillers - winner Independent Press Awards 2021. Inactivist. Supporter of NFFC.
Extract from the upcoming book,
?‘Coronavirus – 2020 Vision
A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’
- Keith Wright.
?KeithWright2021
?
WEDNESDAY 15th JULY 2020
Facts and figures.
Oh crumbs.
Some cheery news. Hooray! The weekly COVID-19 excess deaths have fallen overall to the lowest level since the lockdown was first introduced. The ONR shows that for the week ending 3rd July 2020 the total number of COVID deaths recorded in England and Wales was 532.
When the lockdown was announced, we had 539 COVID deaths that week. Just seven more. This time the figure prompts us to come out of lockdown, before, it prompted us to go into one.
The report also states that five regions in England had deaths below the five-year average for this week:
The West Midlands.?????????????????(2.1% below).
Yorkshire and the Humber???????(2.2% below).
North West England?????????????????(4.1% below).
Eastern England????????????????????????(5.1% below).
South West England.????????????????(6.1% below).
Meanwhile four regions recorded deaths which were above the five-year excess death rate for the same week:
North East England??????????????????(7.1% above).
The East Midlands???????????????????(7.0% above).
South East England??????????????????(3.3% above).
London?????????????????????????????????????(0.5% above)
In total 9,140 deaths overall were registered in England and Wales in the week up to 3rd July 2020 which is…wait for it….43 fewer than the five-year average. It is a crumb of comfort, but a welcome one, none the less.
In a State.
Individual American states are in difficulty controlling the virus. Florida broke the record for new cases with 15,300 new cases in one day (Sunday 12th July 2020). The U.S. had record new cases with 66,528 in one day.
India has had another surge of infections with their case total rising to 820,000.
The WHO reported a record increase in new cases across the world in one day (Sunday 12th July 2020) with 230,370 new cases recorded.
‘Call it Covid.’
Author’s note. Just a quick heads up on how countries should categorise deaths when reporting their figures to the WHO. Their guidelines set out what a Covid death is;
?‘a death due to COVID-19 may not be attributed to another disease (e.g. Cancer) and should be counted independently of pre-existing conditions that are suspected of triggering a severe course of COVID-19’
So, if a person has a heart condition, then acquires the coronavirus and later dies, it should be classified as a coronavirus death. The same applies for diabetes or respiratory illnesses like pneumonia.
Of course, there are many disparities in reporting standards with no sanctions if countries revert to ‘virus politics.’
Currently more than 12.7 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported globally with 565,000 deaths.
Bizarre partisan
The big news, dominating the media and social media this week, is the UK government's announcement that as of 14th July 2020 all customers in shops must wear a face covering or break the law.
A fine of ￡100 is the penalty for failing to comply or ￡50 if you pay within 14 days. It is to be enforced by police rather than shop workers. Children under 11 and those with specific disabilities will be exempt.
Face mask-wearing is currently mandatory on public transport.
There are several issues which have been raised by this and hardly surprisingly it is becoming something of a bizarre partisan issue in some quarters.
The first thing to say is that many countries, not least those successfully fighting COVID-19 have been wearing masks since day one. In Singapore it is an offence not to wear a mask outside of your house. 90% of people comply.
In Europe, Spain, Italy and Germany all have the same measure in place, as do Scotland.
86% of people comply in Spain, 83% in Italy and 78% in France.
?In the UK before the legislation came in, the latest figures showed 36% of people wore a mask in public.
In the USA it is 73% and 60% in Canada.
When?
The WHO stance on this is clear and says that non-medical face coverings should be worn in public where social distancing is not possible. Coronavirus is spread when droplets are sprayed when people talk, cough, or sneeze. The droplets then go on to surfaces and are picked up by touch.
The WHO says there is also emerging evidence of airborne transmission, by aerosol particles hanging in the air.
We also know of course that many people are asymptomatic and walk among us coughing sneezing and touching things we then touch, and we then touch our mouths. These people are oblivious to the fact that they have the virus and are spreading it.
Head scratching.
Author’s note. My view has been clear on this from the very start and is charted in this diary. We should have worn masks from the beginning, not 5 months down the line. People have been scratching their heads as to why certain face mask-wearing countries have been successful in limiting the disease, when not only was it staring them in the face, but it was also on it.. Japan, for example, has not had any sort of lockdown and yet have only 1,000 deaths.
Despite all of the above, people are whingeing and complaining about having to wear a damned mask to do an hour’s shopping, when doing so may reduce the spread of others' disease and save lives. What is wrong with them?
They cite evidence which says it doesn’t work, or that it is a human rights issue, or that it is dangerous to wear one because it harbours germs or restricts oxygen. It is all unfounded and even if it were true, a lesser consideration than saving lives.
Suck it up.
Just suck it up and wear the mask safely is my advice and be kind. Show some humanity. It is not much of a sacrifice.
Steady decline.
A study suggests that immunity to the virus may only last a few months. Kings College London conducted research that showed antibodies peaked three weeks after the coronavirus's onset and then steadily declined.
60% of participants had potent levels of antibodies during the peak of their battle with COVID-19, but only 17% sustained the same level three months later.
UK on track, but…
Some financial facts and figures drop onto my desk. The OBR has revised its estimates of the cost of the UK government’s response to the pandemic to be a staggering ￡192 billion. It also warns that the country is on track to suffer the worst economic slump in 300 years.
It suggests that UK output could slow to 14.3% this year and not recover to pre-crisis levels until 2024. This is a particularly gloomy projection as many financial commentators suggested that the recovery would be around a year.
The most optimistic projection that the OBR gives states that GDP would decline by 10.6%, which is still the worst for 300 years.
It puts the jobless figures peaking at 11.4%. (They currently stand at 3.9%).
As with other reports, it does not build in any interventions by the Chancellor to mitigate the situation. It helps the government display how wonderful they’ve done when it is less than ‘predicted’ I suppose.
?
Daily news.
Nasty.
The long-term effects of COVID-19, previously touched on in this diary, could be far worse than first believed even from a mild infection.
Doctors and researchers in Lombardy, in Northern Italy warn that some victims may never recover. Psychosis, insomnia, spinal infections, strokes, chronic tiredness, and mobility issues have been identified as a consequence of the virus. All age groups are vulnerable to these effects.
Author gets it wrong.
Aubrey Allegretti for Sky News quotes a report commissioned by Sir Patrick Valance the Chief Scientific Officer for England by the Academy of Medical Sciences.
It says that ‘a reasonable worst-case scenario’ would be 120,000 deaths in the UK before June 2021, were there to be a second wave.
The 37 scientists contributing to the report suggest the peak in hospital admissions and deaths would come in January and February 2021. This does not include deaths in the community or care homes nor take into account any interventions by the government.
Author’s note. My feeling is that this is a little alarmist as it does not bring into account any interventions, in which case why not make it a million people? What is useful I suppose is that it does prompt the government to be prepared and recommends this be the case in September 2020.
Author’s retrospective note. I was wrong.
Pickers packed up.
Dozens of key workers picking and packing vegetables at a farm in Hertfordshire have tested positive. 72 out of 220 people tested have proved positive for COVID-19. These are Romanian pickers brought over for the season. They are now self-isolating.
Public Health England has said that,
?‘it is very unlikely COVID-19 can be transmitted through food or food packaging, so shoppers can remain confident buying British fruit and veg.’
?
Family life:
Unpleasant.
My son, Harry, had a cough at the weekend and requested a test. Thankfully, he was negative. Doing the test was something of an unpleasant experience, he said.
Looking ahead.
I will mention this as a personal matter as it affects my leisure time as a season ticket holder at the mighty Nottingham Forest Football Club. The English Football League have had to cancel plans to allow some supporters into stadiums as a ‘test’ during this intermediary period as clubs finish the season belatedly.
They are now working towards allowing some supporters returning to stadiums next season. Any audience tests would have to take place at pre-season friendlies, and the EFL hope to open stadiums at 25% capacity in September 2020. These are all signs that we are getting back to normality. Maybe we will be spared a second wave after all?
Author’s retrospective note. Wrong again.
Quote of the day:
‘Almost every sinful action ever committed can be traced back to a selfish motive. It is a trait we hate in other people but justify in ourselves.’ – Stephen Kendrick.
??KeithWright2021
?
?‘Coronavirus – 2020 Vision
A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’
- Keith Wright.
?This day-by-day factual and complete account of events throughout the coronavirus pandemic, written as it happened, gives incredible insight into what life was like during this tragic and historic pandemic in the United Kingdom and worldwide.
It includes facts and figures, government initiatives, news events, moving individual accounts, and the horrific consequences, as they happened each day.
There is also a daily, personal slant on what life was like for the author and his family during what threatened to be an apocalyptic event.
It reveals all humanity in its idiocy, compassion and brilliance; the key elements, significant dates, statistics, human stories, tragedies, government strategies, the twists and turns, the humour and the obtuse.
The coronavirus will define this generation and identify these times, like other rare global historical events such as the bubonic plague and the World Wars.
This book is something to show your children and grandchildren when they ask you what it was like during such a frightening time. It can also be used as a point of reference for historians, commentators, and educators. It is also merely for posterity.
Were you alive? Do you recall it? Do you remember our Prime Minister almost died with Covid-19? Remember, the Queen saying ‘we’ll meet again’ during lockdown? Surely you recollect the EU conducting ‘an act of hostility’ towards the UK to get their hands on our vaccines? The thirty police officers fined for having a haircut, or the first man in the world to be vaccinated being called William Shakespeare from Stratford Upon Avon!
The whole world was plunged into chaos, with death, suffering and economic disaster. How did we cope? How did all of this happen? According to Keith’s wife, Jackie, it was ‘all because a man ate a bat.’
?Keith Wright previously worked leading Corporate Investigations for a global pharmacy retailer. He has worked on major Crisis Management Incidents alongside senior executives impacting across the world of pharmaceutical product management.
Critically acclaimed crime novelist, and former CID detective, Wright moves from fiction to a factual account of arguably the most historic natural event to blight humanity in modern times.
He has four children and lives in Nottingham, England, with his wife, Jackie.
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All rights reserved ?Keith Wright 2021
Copyright?KeithWright 2021
?
If you are affected by any issues raised in the book contact:
The Samaritans or check local charities.
?All information believed correct at the time of writing.
?Diary entries gathered from an array of publicly available visual, audio and written sources and merged to give a holistic and creative editorial view.
?Glossary and source lists are available at the end of the book.
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This book is dedicated to those who have lost their lives and the extraordinary bravery of front-line NHS staff, key workers, carers, and everyone who, in their own way, have contributed to help others. We are grateful, and we thank you, wholeheartedly.
?Author’s note.
My mother's first husband was killed in World War 2. His name was Arthur Smith. When I spoke with her about it, which, with hindsight, was too infrequently, she said he wasn't a fighter; he was a gentle, kind man, thrown into a hell with which he would struggle to adapt. He was an infantryman who died doing his duty for others, near Geel in Belgium, pushing through from the D-Day landings in 1944.
I use this as a loose analogy for our NHS heroes in the front line. These people are not emergency workers such as the police who are used to conflict and danger, nor are they like firefighters physically battling a fire and saving lives. These are people who have a caring disposition. (Not that the police and firefighters, don't care, bearing in mind that they risk their lives on a daily basis, but you see the point I am making).
?NHS front-line workers are sensitive to the human condition and understand the nuances of helping another human being survive illness and injury. They are also people who have now seen the effects of COVID-19 and the nightmare conditions it engenders. Every fibre of their being is focussed on kindness and caring. Yet they have to find peculiar courage. The courage to risk their own lives and possibly even their families lives to treat others every day. Not only do they have to wear a surgical mask, but they have to display the mask of quiet reassurance, professionalism, and positivity, despite their fears. They have to fight with decisions like holding a hand of an infected dying patient when your COVID instinct dictates you surely must not do this.
Dear reader, this is real courage. I hope they are well looked after once this is all resolved, and they receive counselling to help them recover from this incredibly traumatic time.
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BEFORE WE START THE DIARY. WHAT WAS IT ALL ABOUT?
?As I commence this diary, this is what is known; our knowledge will grow over the months and years.
?Coronavirus is a respiratory virus discovered in 2019. In lay-person terms, it causes the lungs to clog up, inhibiting the oxygen supply to the blood, and eventually causing organ failure. Its potency is in how virulently contagious it is. Coronavirus is the virus that leads to the disease COVID-19.
It is believed to be a zoonotic illness, meaning it jumped species to infect humans. Researchers believe the most likely source is the Rhinolophus sinicus, otherwise known as the horseshoe bat which was consumed having been purchased from a ‘wet market’ in Hubei Province, China.
COVID-19 was originally known as 2019-nCoV. It stood for the year of its discovery - 2019, the fact that it was a new (novel) virus (n), and it came from the Corona Virus family (CoV).
?The name was changed to COVID-19 when it became a pandemic. The World Health Organisation had to allocate a name for the disease that did not relate to a person; a group of persons, an animal, a geographic location, was pronounceable, and relatable. Beyond this, the formal name for the virus given by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses called it the 'severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2' or SARS-CoV-2, because it is related to the virus that caused the outbreak of SARS in 2003. For the avoidance of doubt, it will be referred to by the name everyone uses; COVID-19 or ‘Covid.’
Early analysis of the virus suggests that two main strains exist, designated L and S. The L strain appears to be more prevalent (70% of cases); however, it is the S strain that is the ancestral version. L strain appears to be the most aggressive and spreads quickly. It should be noted that this is a new virus to humanity, and we are starting from absolute scratch in our understanding of it. Even as knowledge grows, the chances of mutation are possible, if not probable, and suddenly all bets can be off.
?The coronavirus is transferable by hand to mouth from surfaces or contact and close proximity with someone affected. As with all such viruses, it is also spread by droplets, contact, or airborne particles. It causes a continual dry cough, breathing difficulties, and some aches and pains. Latterly we discovered a loss of taste and smell was also a major symptom. It is a mild to moderate condition for 80 per cent of those who catch it. However, older people and those with underlying illnesses are at a much higher risk of death. As the disease progresses, we see more and more younger able-bodied people in intensive care and dying because of the virus. The World Health Organisation state that 3% of those contracting it will die. There is no cure and no vaccine.
The virus uses its outer prongs to lock on to a living cell. It then inserts its genetic material (RNA – Ribonucleicacid) into the cell. Once inside, it hijacks the machinery of the nucleus of the cell to make numerous copies of itself. It then destroys the cell, and the copies burst out and spread, to do the same thing to multiple other living cells and so the cycle continues, with the virus growing and multiplying exponentially.
The incubation period in a human can be anything from 0-15 days. Some people are asymptomatic and are oblivious to having caught it. Most people's immune system mounts an appropriate response, and they begin to feel better after around 5-7 days after a debilitating flu-like illness. In some people, the immune system goes into overdrive and starts attacking the lungs and other organs and the coronavirus. Infection can cause pneumonia, breathing difficulties, and further organ damage. In others, the immune system cannot cope, and they die. Some can appear to have overcome it and then deteriorate rapidly and die in a day, often with hypoxia – lack of oxygen. Some have been in a coma for 60 plus days, yet still, survive, but forever scarred and impaired.
It is reported that the first case of the disease was presented by a 55-year-old man in Hubei Province, China, on 17th November 2019. It spread and was located in Wuhan Province, China, a month later, in December 2019.
Other theories have emerged around the virus' origins:
Regardless of the exact trigger point, the coronavirus was initially thought to have arrived in the United Kingdom on 28th February 2020, and the first confirmed case being on 31st February 2020. In August 2020, samples by the University of Nottingham discovered that the earliest person to contract and then die with the virus was a 75-year-old woman from Nottinghamshire who tested positive on 21st February 2020.
It is now understood that a traveller returning from South Korea on 28th February 2020 most likely caught the virus in Nottingham rather than Korea as first assumed. Professor John Ball, one of the authors of the study, said ‘there was widespread community transmission of coronavirus’ in Nottingham in early February 2020.
In the UK, we have the National Health Service (NHS). This means that medical care is free at the point of need for all its citizens. The working population pay for this service through their taxes. Each country around the world has different healthcare systems, some insurance based. The NHS does not have any added complications around whether someone can afford to pay for their care through insurance coverage or otherwise.
Key players in the management of this crisis in the United Kingdom are:
Boris Johnson; Prime Minister,
Matt Hancock; the Health Secretary of State,
Dominic Raab; the Foreign & Commonwealth Secretary of State (deputising for the P.M.),
Rishi Sunak; The Chancellor of the Exchequer,
Professor Sir Patrick Vallance; the Chief Scientific Advisor and chair of SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies),
Professor Chris Whitty; the Chief Medical officer for Public Health England,
Professor Jonathan Van-Tam; Deputy Chief Medical Officer for Public Health England.
The virus has caused tens of millions of infections and millions of deaths worldwide, creating a global lock-down and an almost dystopian planet, of death and deserted streets, never before experienced in modern history. Some describe it as an apocalyptic disease. The fabric of society is changed with people told not to socialise and to stay at home. These changes have a massive effect on our way of life, the economy, and family interaction. What will life be like when we come blinking out of our homes in months or years ahead, assuming we survive, into a new world that is changed forever?
Our hope is for a vaccine, yet this is impossible for many months, probably years, if at all. Sadly, the world has been unable to develop a vaccine for any of the previous coronavirus such as SARS, (or even the common cold, which is part of the coronavirus family), so it would be remarkable if they manage to do so with this one.
Immunity after the disease is unclear. There is nothing to suggest that previous sufferers have immunity, nor for how long it will last if they do. There is even the danger of those recovering from COVID-19 gaining, something known as 'enhanced immunity.' This relatively unknown syndrome happens with Dengue fever, which means you get the disease far worse the second time.
I start this diary uncertain whether I will be alive to finish it or sustain it if I become one of the coronavirus victims. Will I be too ill to continue? Will I die? Things change day-to-day, and suddenly the future is more uncertain than ever before in my lifetime.
No one would have believed, a matter of a few short weeks ago, the changes that this vicious, dangerous pandemic would bring to our lives: the deaths, the uncertainty, the trauma, the separation, and the loss.
This book is intended to bear witness, record statistics, collate news articles, personal stories, front-line accounts, precis government briefings, and offer an intimate view of family life during this historic and tragic period in the year 2020 and beyond.
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Release date August 2021.
?KeithWright2021
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