On this day in 2020...12th May

Extract from the upcoming book,

 ‘Coronavirus – 2020 Vision

A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’

- Keith Wright.

?KeithWright2021

TUESDAY 12TH MAY 2020

32,692 total dead in the UK overall.

627 reported dead over the last 24 hours.

2,007, 146 tests completed overall.

226,463 people have tested positive.

85,293 tests yesterday.

3,403 tested positive and are new cases.

11,605 are in hospital with COVID-19. This is up from yesterday (Which is the first time for some time). Yesterday 11,465 were in hospital.

Koch.

Germany’s coronavirus infections continue to rise, and a new report indicates their r rate is now back above 1 after recently releasing their lockdown. The German government (like many others) is facing criticism that the loosening measures were ill-prepared even though thousands of Germans protested on Saturday for a total end to the lockdown.

The Robert Koch Institute reported to the German government that the r rate was estimated at 1.1, but the margin of error means that it could be between 0.90 and 1.34.

Spain's recent figures also demonstrate the precarious nature of releasing the lockdown across Europe with the lowest newly diagnosed cases for more than two months. Yet, the number of deaths rose 176 to 26,920.

It looks like post lockdown days are quite a rocky road.

Diminishing returns.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak has announced that he will be extending the Furlough process through to October 2020. The scheme is costing ￡8 billion a week.

It will remain at 80% of people’s pay until August, and then potentially reduce to 60% after that. He says that he will be talking to large employers to see what they are prepared to do to financially support the programme.

Author’s note. This is excellent news in the quest to save the economy and save jobs. The Furlough system is a terrific idea and one of the successes of the government's approach so far.

Nothing is a panacea, but there is an element of this that sticks in the craw a little. I say this because we the taxpayer are paying for this, and yet, billionaire business owners are not paying any wages. Some of these being the same billionaires who do their utmost to avoid paying taxes every year. The taxes that are now bailing them out. Of, course they can do this because they know we have to save the economy.

 Daily news.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock was interviewed on ITV’s This Morning and when asked whether ‘summer was cancelled.’ He said,

 ‘I think that’s likely to be the case. The conclusion …is that it is unlikely that big lavish international holidays will be possible for this summer. I just think that’s a reality of life.’

In Care Homes, deaths were 40.4% of all coronavirus deaths in England and Wales in the week up to 1st May 2020. The ONS calculated that there were 8,312 corona deaths in that period.

Author’s note. This is hardly surprising when hospitals, desperate for beds, have been sending patients back to care homes, without a test, full of fragile elderly people just waiting to be infected. Lambs to the slaughter. Poor souls.

The ONS statistics for deaths, up to May 1st is much higher than the government’s, at just under 36,000. The ONS counting all deaths above the norm would put the real figure of coronavirus excess deaths at over 50,000.

The government figures still only count those people who have been tested positive for coronavirus despite changing it to the higher number of ‘all settings’ a few weeks ago. This, of course, misses people who never had a test.

‘Excess deaths.’

The total number of deaths tends to be fairly constant each year and is only rarely affected unless by a large-scale flu epidemic, for example. Or, indeed, as in this case, coronavirus.

It is the excess figure above the usual amount over the previous 5 years that statisticians use historically to account for the virus's true toll.

The excess number of 50,000 only takes us up to 1st May 2020, which is twelve days ago. Now we are letting everybody intermingle again. Who knows when this will end?

School daze.

The department for Education has published guidelines for schools:

Class sizes limited to 15 pupils.

Desks spaced apart and outside space utilised.

Staggered pick-up, drop-off, and break times.

Remove soft furnishings and toys.

No fines or attendance records if parents don’t send children.

As with everything else, the government tries to do; there is the voice of dissent rising from one quarter or another, in this instance, notably from the Teachers Unions.

 5 pm Press Briefing. Alok Sharma Secretary of State for Business.

The briefing today was a re-iteration of information and questions about the intended changes. The only new piece of information related to the action to be taken at each of the 5 alert points mentioned yesterday.

1. COVID-19 is not known to be present in the UK.

ACTION: Routine international monitoring.

2. COVID-19 is present in the UK, but the number of cases and transmission is low.

ACTION: No or minimal social distancing measures enhance testing, tracing, monitoring, and screening. 

3. A COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation.

ACTION: Gradual relaxing of restrictions and social distancing measures.

 4. A COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation; transmission is high or rising exponentially.

ACTION: Current social distancing measures and restrictions.

5. As level 4 and there is a material risk of healthcare services being overwhelmed. 

ACTION: Social distancing measures increase from today’s level.

Family life.

Tweets.

Jackie and I appreciate the newly found morning bird song, which seems to be heard much more now that cars are fewer on the roads. Jackie ordered some bird feeders, and they have been put up to tempt our Robin friends that come close, but not close enough.

Fleeing the nest.

I went out to get some essentials and drop off the face masks for my sons Chris and Harry while social distancing, of course. Some things caught my eye as I was driving:

Graffiti on a board outside a pub saying, ‘We luv the NHS.’

A hearse with a coffin and flowers inside, went to the nearby crematorium, yet only two small cars followed: each with one person inside wearing black ties.

Petrol is now being sold for a mere 99p. Before the crisis, it was at least ￡1.30 per litre.

Tits.

Because the Prime Minister has mentioned that people should use ‘good old fashioned British Common sense,’ there has been an uproar by the professionally outraged. It seems the term common sense is some sort of insult. I talk mainly about the press and political commentators who keep ranting about how difficult it all is to understand; it is pure mischief, of course. Anyone can dream up scenarios where things seem unclear. People quickly become reliant on the government and ratchet up their anger exponentially as crises come and go.

Author’s note. I wanted a bacon sandwich this morning, but the problem was I couldn’t decide whether to have smoked or unsmoked? Should I cook it crispy or soft?  Should it be on white or brown bread? Should I use butter on the bread, or leave it plain, or even use dip from the pan? How many, one or two? When should I eat it? With whom? Should I have tomatoes or mushrooms with it? What sauce should I have, if any? There were no clear instructions, dammit! Why won’t the government tell me what to do!

Songbirds.

The Eurovision Song Contest, along with everything else, has been cancelled, and I learned today that the British entry for the competition, believe it or not, was a song called ‘My Last Breath.’ Seriously? I’m guessing it was chosen before the coronavirus outbreak. Not in the best of taste bearing in mind the current situation.

Quote of the day:

‘I don’t do what I’m told, but I might do what you want if you ask me nicely.’ – Cassandra Clare.

?KeithWright2021

 ‘Coronavirus – 2020 Vision

A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’

- Keith Wright.

 This day-by-day factual and complete account of events throughout the coronavirus pandemic, written as it happened, gives incredible insight into what life was like during this tragic and historic pandemic in the United Kingdom and worldwide.

It includes facts and figures, government initiatives, news events, moving individual accounts, and the horrific consequences, as they happened each day.

There is also a daily, personal slant on what life was like for the author and his family during what threatened to be an apocalyptic event.

It reveals all humanity in its idiocy, compassion and brilliance; the key elements, significant dates, statistics, human stories, tragedies, government strategies, the twists and turns, the humour and the obtuse.

The coronavirus will define this generation and identify these times, like other rare global historical events such as the bubonic plague and the World Wars.

This book is something to show your children and grandchildren when they ask you what it was like during such a frightening time. It can also be used as a point of reference for historians, commentators, and educators. It is also merely for posterity.

Were you alive? Do you recall it? Do you remember our Prime Minister almost died with Covid-19? Remember, the Queen saying ‘we’ll meet again’ during lockdown? Surely you recollect the EU conducting ‘an act of hostility’ towards the UK to get their hands on our vaccines? The thirty police officers fined for having a haircut, or the first man in the world to be vaccinated being called William Shakespeare from Stratford Upon Avon!

The whole world was plunged into chaos, with death, suffering and economic disaster. How did we cope? How did all of this happen? According to Keith’s wife, Jackie, it was ‘all because a man ate a bat.’

Keith Wright previously worked leading Corporate Investigations for a global pharmacy retailer. He has worked on major Crisis Management Incidents alongside senior executives impacting across the world of pharmaceutical product management.

Critically acclaimed crime novelist, and former CID detective, Wright moves from fiction to a factual account of arguably the most historic natural event to blight humanity in modern times.

He has four children and lives in Nottingham, England, with his wife, Jackie.

 All rights reserved ?Keith Wright 2021

Copyright?KeithWright 2021

If you are affected by any issues raised in the book contact:

The Samaritans or check local charities.

 All information believed correct at the time of writing.

 Diary entries gathered from an array of publicly available visual, audio and written sources and merged to give a holistic and creative editorial view.

 Glossary and source lists are available at the end of the book.

This book is dedicated to those who have lost their lives and the extraordinary bravery of front-line NHS staff, key workers, carers, and everyone who, in their own way, have contributed to help others. We are grateful, and we thank you, wholeheartedly.

 Authors note.

My mother's first husband was killed in World War 2. His name was Arthur Smith. When I spoke with her about it, which, with hindsight, was too infrequently, she said he wasn't a fighter; he was a gentle, kind man, thrown into a hell with which he would struggle to adapt. He was an infantryman who died doing his duty for others, near Geel in Belgium, pushing through from the D-Day landings in 1944.

I use this as a loose analogy for our NHS heroes in the front line. These people are not emergency workers such as the police who are used to conflict and danger, nor are they like firefighters physically battling a fire and saving lives. These are people who have a caring disposition. (Not that the police and firefighters, don't care, bearing in mind that they risk their lives on a daily basis, but you see the point I am making).

 NHS front-line workers are sensitive to the human condition and understand the nuances of helping another human being survive illness and injury. They are also people who have now seen the effects of COVID-19 and the nightmare conditions it engenders. Every fibre of their being is focussed on kindness and caring. Yet they have to find peculiar courage. The courage to risk their own lives and possibly even their families lives to treat others every day. Not only do they have to wear a surgical mask, but they have to display the mask of quiet reassurance, professionalism, and positivity, despite their fears. They have to fight with decisions like holding a hand of an infected dying patient when your COVID instinct dictates you surely must not do this.

Dear reader, this is real courage. I hope they are well looked after once this is all resolved, and they receive counselling to help them recover from this incredibly traumatic time.

BEFORE WE START THE DIARY. WHAT WAS IT ALL ABOUT?

 As I commence this diary, this is what is known; our knowledge will grow over the months and years.

 Coronavirus is a respiratory virus discovered in 2019. In lay-person terms, it causes the lungs to clog up, inhibiting the oxygen supply to the blood, and eventually causing organ failure. Its potency is in how virulently contagious it is. Coronavirus is the virus that leads to the disease COVID-19.

It is believed to be a zoonotic illness, meaning it jumped species to infect humans. Researchers believe the most likely source is the Rhinolophus sinicus, otherwise known as the horseshoe bat which was consumed having been purchased from a ‘wet market’ in Hubei Province, China.

COVID-19 was originally known as 2019-nCoV. It stood for the year of its discovery - 2019, the fact that it was a new (novel) virus (n), and it came from the Corona Virus family (CoV).

 The name was changed to COVID-19 when it became a pandemic. The World Health Organisation had to allocate a name for the disease that did not relate to a person; a group of persons, an animal, a geographic location, was pronounceable, and relatable. Beyond this, the formal name for the virus given by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses called it the 'severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2' or SARS-CoV-2, because it is related to the virus that caused the outbreak of SARS in 2003. For the avoidance of doubt, it will be referred to by the name everyone uses; COVID-19 or ‘Covid.’

Early analysis of the virus suggests that two main strains exist, designated L and S. The L strain appears to be more prevalent (70% of cases); however, it is the S strain that is the ancestral version. L strain appears to be the most aggressive and spreads quickly. It should be noted that this is a new virus to humanity, and we are starting from absolute scratch in our understanding of it. Even as knowledge grows, the chances of mutation are possible, if not probable, and suddenly all bets can be off.

 The coronavirus is transferable by hand to mouth from surfaces or contact and close proximity with someone affected. As with all such viruses, it is also spread by droplets, contact, or airborne particles. It causes a continual dry cough, breathing difficulties, and some aches and pains. Latterly we discovered a loss of taste and smell was also a major symptom. It is a mild to moderate condition for 80 per cent of those who catch it. However, older people and those with underlying illnesses are at a much higher risk of death. As the disease progresses, we see more and more younger able-bodied people in intensive care and dying because of the virus. The World Health Organisation state that 3% of those contracting it will die. There is no cure and no vaccine.

The virus uses its outer prongs to lock on to a living cell. It then inserts its genetic material (RNA – Ribonucleicacid) into the cell. Once inside, it hijacks the machinery of the nucleus of the cell to make numerous copies of itself. It then destroys the cell, and the copies burst out and spread, to do the same thing to multiple other living cells and so the cycle continues, with the virus growing and multiplying exponentially.

The incubation period in a human can be anything from 0-15 days. Some people are asymptomatic and are oblivious to having caught it. Most people's immune system mounts an appropriate response, and they begin to feel better after around 5-7 days after a debilitating flu-like illness. In some people, the immune system goes into overdrive and starts attacking the lungs and other organs and the coronavirus. Infection can cause pneumonia, breathing difficulties, and further organ damage. In others, the immune system cannot cope, and they die. Some can appear to have overcome it and then deteriorate rapidly and die in a day, often with hypoxia – lack of oxygen. Some have been in a coma for 60 plus days, yet still, survive, but forever scarred and impaired.

It is reported that the first case of the disease was presented by a 55-year-old man in Hubei Province, China, on 17th November 2019. It spread and was located in Wuhan Province, China, a month later, in December 2019.

Other theories have emerged around the virus' origins:

• The eating of a diseased bat (or Pangolin) at a wet market. (This seems initially to be the most likely. ‘Pangolin and chips please, no vinegar.’).
• A leak or intentional dispersal from the biological warfare lab situated in Wuhan, China.
• It began in a region south of Wuhan as early as September 2019. Cambridge scientists are exploring the September theory by tracing pathogens. This earlier outbreak could have been carried by humans well before it mutated into a more lethal form.
• Others suggest that traces of faeces in Italy’s sewerage show the virus earlier than it began in China in the summer of 2019. This was later corroborated by research into blood samples of cancer patients taken in early October 2019 which had COVID-19 antibodies present, which means they would have had the disease in September 2019.

Regardless of the exact trigger point, the coronavirus was initially thought to have arrived in the United Kingdom on 28th February 2020, and the first confirmed case being on 31st February 2020. In August 2020, samples by the University of Nottingham discovered that the earliest person to contract and then die with the virus was a 75-year-old woman from Nottinghamshire who tested positive on 21st February 2020.

It is now understood that a traveller returning from South Korea on 28th February 2020 most likely caught the virus in Nottingham rather than Korea as first assumed. Professor John Ball, one of the authors of the study, said ‘there was widespread community transmission of coronavirus’ in Nottingham in early February 2020.

In the UK, we have the National Health Service (NHS). This means that medical care is free at the point of need for all its citizens. The working population pay for this service through their taxes. Each country around the world has different healthcare systems, some insurance based. The NHS does not have any added complications around whether someone can afford to pay for their care through insurance coverage or otherwise.

Key players in the management of this crisis in the United Kingdom are:

Boris Johnson; Prime Minister,

Matt Hancock; the Health Secretary of State,

Dominic Raab; the Foreign & Commonwealth Secretary of State (deputising for the P.M.),

Rishi Sunak; The Chancellor of the Exchequer,

Professor Sir Patrick Vallance; the Chief Scientific Advisor and chair of SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies),

Professor Chris Whitty; the Chief Medical officer for Public Health England,

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam; Deputy Chief Medical Officer for Public Health England.

The virus has caused tens of millions of infections and millions of deaths worldwide, creating a global lock-down and an almost dystopian planet, of death and deserted streets, never before experienced in modern history. Some describe it as an apocalyptic disease. The fabric of society is changed with people told not to socialise and to stay at home. These changes have a massive effect on our way of life, the economy, and family interaction. What will life be like when we come blinking out of our homes in months or years ahead, assuming we survive, into a new world that is changed forever?

Our hope is for a vaccine, yet this is impossible for many months, probably years, if at all. Sadly, the world has been unable to develop a vaccine for any of the previous coronavirus such as SARS, (or even the common cold, which is part of the coronavirus family), so it would be remarkable if they manage to do so with this one.

Immunity after the disease is unclear. There is nothing to suggest that previous sufferers have immunity, nor for how long it will last if they do. There is even the danger of those recovering from COVID-19 gaining, something known as 'enhanced immunity.' This relatively unknown syndrome happens with Denghi fever, which means you get the disease far worse the second time.

I start this diary uncertain whether I will be alive to finish it or sustain it if I become one of the coronavirus victims. Will I be too ill to continue? Will I die? Things change day-to-day, and suddenly the future is more uncertain than ever before in my lifetime.

No one would have believed, a matter of a few short weeks ago, the changes that this vicious, dangerous pandemic would bring to our lives: the deaths, the uncertainty, the trauma, the separation, and the loss.

This book is intended to bear witness, record statistics, collate news articles, personal stories, front-line accounts, precis government briefings, and offer an intimate view of family life during this historic and tragic period in the year 2020 and beyond.

  Release date July 2021.

?KeithWright2021