On this day in 2020...12th June

Extract from the upcoming book,

 ‘Coronavirus – 2020 Vision

A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’

- Keith Wright.

?KeithWright2021

FRIDAY 12TH JUNE 2020

41,481 overall deaths.

202 people reported dying of COVID-19 in the last 24 hours.

6,434,713 tests completed or dispatched so far.

292,950 of these tested positive overall.

193,253 done or dispatched yesterday.

1,541 of these tested positive and are new cases.

33,000 people in the community currently have COVID-19. This is down from 152,000 between 27th April to 10th May 2020.

In the UK as a whole, the r rate is unchanged at 0.7 – 0.9. In England, the South West is showing 0.8-1.1.

 Daily news.

Relatives of 450 people who have died in the coronavirus pandemic are demanding an immediate public enquiry, Michael Buchannon of BBC news, reports. The ‘COVID-19 Bereaved Families for Justice UK’ group say immediate lessons need to be learned.

Author’s note: It seems likely to me that a lawsuit will follow with thousands suing the government, not least over sending infected people from hospitals into care homes untested.

Mix and match.

A check-in on the United States progress with coronavirus: It isn’t great. Cases are on the rise in 19 states. Utah and Oregon are pausing their re-opening. The American Dr Fauci is our equivalent of Professor Chris Whitty and suggests that Governors make their own decisions and if they see greater percentages of hospitalisations and higher percentages of positive tests they need to slow down, isolate and contact trace.

Dr Fauci says that they are more likely to discover a therapy before a vaccine. The drug Remdesivir is showing positive signs and heightens recovery time by 30% from the time it takes to go from hospitalisation to recovery. They are trying this with a mixture of other drugs.

They are also trying tests which include transferring plasma from recovered patients to sick patients.

170,000 deaths?

The above two are something that are being tried here in the UK. Dr Fauci describes one trial as ‘monoclonal antibodies’ which they have put into clinical trials this week. This treatment is using specific antibodies that have been successful when treating Ebola.

One model being worked on in the USA suggests that there will be 170,000 deaths by October 2020. Dr Fauci sums it up:

 ‘Just take a look at the numbers, and you can see it’s not over. We’re getting around 1,000 deaths a day, 20,000 new cases a day. It’s not over.’

Strange.

The strange thing is that in America, many people are going about their business as if there never was a virus. They are demonstrating in their thousands about a black man being killed by police, and President Trump just wants everyone back at work to save the economy with an election coming up in the Fall.

That’s easy for you to say.

There is hope on the subject of potential vaccines because of the volume of different ones being worked on around the world by top scientists. This is sadly done in the knowledge that no vaccine has ever been created for a coronavirus. Below are just some of the leading vaccines and potential therapies which are due to be clinically trialled:

Gimsilumab by Roivant Sciences – This is the therapy Dr Fauci touched on, a human monoclonal antibody. The drug targets granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF), which is a pro-inflammatory cytokine found in high levels in the serum of COVID-19 patients. It is hoped it reduces lung damage and reduces the mortality rate.

Fusogenix DNA vaccine by Entos Pharmaceuticals. – a proteo-lipid vehicle that introduces genetic payload directly into the cells.

ChAdOx1 nCov-19 by University of Oxford – I have discussed this before in the diary and uses monkey virus to locate coronavirus. Clinical trials are underway.

AdCOVID by Altimmune by the University of Alabama – developing a single-dose intranasal vaccine for COVID-19.

TJM2 by I-Mab Biopharma -TJM2 is a neutralising antibody and treats a cytokine storm in patients suffering from a severe case of Coronavirus infection and reduces inflammation.

AT-100 by Airway Therapeutics – is exploring its novel human recombinant protein called At-100 (rhSP-D) as a treatment. In testing, it has shown efficacy in reducing inflammation in the lungs while also generating an immune response against various respiratory diseases.

mRNA-1273 vaccine by Moderna and Vaccine Research Centre – The Vaccine Research Centre is a unit of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and is working with Moderna to develop a vaccine that targets the spike protein of the Coronavirus.

Avian Coronavirus Infectious Bronchitis Virus (IBV) vaccine by MIGAL Research Institute – Modifying an existing IBV vaccine developed to treat avian coronavirus has been modified to vaccinate against COVID-19.

TNX-1800 by Tonix Pharmaceuticals – the vaccine is a modified horsepox virus and uses TNX-1800 to express a protein derived from the virus that causes coronavirus.

There are many more tests and trials taking place around the world, as you might imagine, but it is fascinating to see the different approaches by leading scientists.

 5 pm Press Briefing - Grant Shapps Secretary of State for Transport

‘Journey makers.’

Transport Secretary, Grant Shapps repeated the measures in place from Monday as already outlined in the diary and re-iterated mandatory face-covering wearing and non-compliance can lead to a fine.

Police and volunteer ‘journey-makers’ will support and remind people of the requirement on vehicles and stations.

Mass ignorance.

He reminded people not to attend mass gatherings or demonstrations to avoid the spread.

 Authors note: Thousands will ignore this, even on the slim chance they happen to be watching the coronavirus governmental briefing.

Corridors of power.

Mr Shapps said that on 29th June 2020, they would be reviewing the viability of air bridges, or travel corridors between countries. These would be an agreement between countries with a low number of cases to ease traveling protocols.

 Family life.

The football team that I support; Nottingham Forest, plays Sheffield Wednesday next week in an empty stadium because of the COVID-19 risk. The season had previously been suspended, and attempts are now being made to finish the outstanding fixtures in a COVID safe way.

This is exciting as Forest has a chance at promotion to the Premier League. I mention it, as weirdly they have launched a scheme today where fans can pay ￡20 and have a life-size photo of themselves placed in the empty stands to give the impression of a crowd. Times just get stranger by the day.

Quote of the day.

‘That’s why they call it the American dream; you have to be asleep to believe it.’ – George Carlin.

 ?KeithWright2021

 ‘Coronavirus – 2020 Vision

A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’

- Keith Wright.

 This day-by-day factual and complete account of events throughout the coronavirus pandemic, written as it happened, gives incredible insight into what life was like during this tragic and historic pandemic in the United Kingdom and worldwide.

It includes facts and figures, government initiatives, news events, moving individual accounts, and the horrific consequences, as they happened each day.

There is also a daily, personal slant on what life was like for the author and his family during what threatened to be an apocalyptic event.

It reveals all humanity in its idiocy, compassion and brilliance; the key elements, significant dates, statistics, human stories, tragedies, government strategies, the twists and turns, the humour and the obtuse.

The coronavirus will define this generation and identify these times, like other rare global historical events such as the bubonic plague and the World Wars.

This book is something to show your children and grandchildren when they ask you what it was like during such a frightening time. It can also be used as a point of reference for historians, commentators, and educators. It is also merely for posterity.

Were you alive? Do you recall it? Do you remember our Prime Minister almost died with Covid-19? Remember, the Queen saying ‘we’ll meet again’ during lockdown? Surely you recollect the EU conducting ‘an act of hostility’ towards the UK to get their hands on our vaccines? The thirty police officers fined for having a haircut, or the first man in the world to be vaccinated being called William Shakespeare from Stratford Upon Avon!

The whole world was plunged into chaos, with death, suffering and economic disaster. How did we cope? How did all of this happen? According to Keith’s wife, Jackie, it was ‘all because a man ate a bat.’

 Keith Wright previously worked leading Corporate Investigations for a global pharmacy retailer. He has worked on major Crisis Management Incidents alongside senior executives impacting across the world of pharmaceutical product management.

Critically acclaimed crime novelist, and former CID detective, Wright moves from fiction to a factual account of arguably the most historic natural event to blight humanity in modern times.

He has four children and lives in Nottingham, England, with his wife, Jackie.

All rights reserved ?Keith Wright 2021

Copyright?KeithWright 2021

 If you are affected by any issues raised in the book contact:

The Samaritans or check local charities.

 All information believed correct at the time of writing.

 Diary entries gathered from an array of publicly available visual, audio and written sources and merged to give a holistic and creative editorial view.

 Glossary and source lists are available at the end of the book.

This book is dedicated to those who have lost their lives and the extraordinary bravery of front-line NHS staff, key workers, carers, and everyone who, in their own way, have contributed to help others. We are grateful, and we thank you, wholeheartedly.

 Author’s note.

My mother's first husband was killed in World War 2. His name was Arthur Smith. When I spoke with her about it, which, with hindsight, was too infrequently, she said he wasn't a fighter; he was a gentle, kind man, thrown into a hell with which he would struggle to adapt. He was an infantryman who died doing his duty for others, near Geel in Belgium, pushing through from the D-Day landings in 1944.

I use this as a loose analogy for our NHS heroes in the front line. These people are not emergency workers such as the police who are used to conflict and danger, nor are they like firefighters physically battling a fire and saving lives. These are people who have a caring disposition. (Not that the police and firefighters, don't care, bearing in mind that they risk their lives on a daily basis, but you see the point I am making).

 NHS front-line workers are sensitive to the human condition and understand the nuances of helping another human being survive illness and injury. They are also people who have now seen the effects of COVID-19 and the nightmare conditions it engenders. Every fibre of their being is focussed on kindness and caring. Yet they have to find peculiar courage. The courage to risk their own lives and possibly even their families lives to treat others every day. Not only do they have to wear a surgical mask, but they have to display the mask of quiet reassurance, professionalism, and positivity, despite their fears. They have to fight with decisions like holding a hand of an infected dying patient when your COVID instinct dictates you surely must not do this.

Dear reader, this is real courage. I hope they are well looked after once this is all resolved, and they receive counselling to help them recover from this incredibly traumatic time.

BEFORE WE START THE DIARY. WHAT WAS IT ALL ABOUT?

 As I commence this diary, this is what is known; our knowledge will grow over the months and years.

 Coronavirus is a respiratory virus discovered in 2019. In lay-person terms, it causes the lungs to clog up, inhibiting the oxygen supply to the blood, and eventually causing organ failure. Its potency is in how virulently contagious it is. Coronavirus is the virus that leads to the disease COVID-19.

It is believed to be a zoonotic illness, meaning it jumped species to infect humans. Researchers believe the most likely source is the Rhinolophus sinicus, otherwise known as the horseshoe bat which was consumed having been purchased from a ‘wet market’ in Hubei Province, China.

COVID-19 was originally known as 2019-nCoV. It stood for the year of its discovery - 2019, the fact that it was a new (novel) virus (n), and it came from the Corona Virus family (CoV).

 The name was changed to COVID-19 when it became a pandemic. The World Health Organisation had to allocate a name for the disease that did not relate to a person; a group of persons, an animal, a geographic location, was pronounceable, and relatable. Beyond this, the formal name for the virus given by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses called it the 'severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2' or SARS-CoV-2, because it is related to the virus that caused the outbreak of SARS in 2003. For the avoidance of doubt, it will be referred to by the name everyone uses; COVID-19 or ‘Covid.’

Early analysis of the virus suggests that two main strains exist, designated L and S. The L strain appears to be more prevalent (70% of cases); however, it is the S strain that is the ancestral version. L strain appears to be the most aggressive and spreads quickly. It should be noted that this is a new virus to humanity, and we are starting from absolute scratch in our understanding of it. Even as knowledge grows, the chances of mutation are possible, if not probable, and suddenly all bets can be off.

 The coronavirus is transferable by hand to mouth from surfaces or contact and close proximity with someone affected. As with all such viruses, it is also spread by droplets, contact, or airborne particles. It causes a continual dry cough, breathing difficulties, and some aches and pains. Latterly we discovered a loss of taste and smell was also a major symptom. It is a mild to moderate condition for 80 per cent of those who catch it. However, older people and those with underlying illnesses are at a much higher risk of death. As the disease progresses, we see more and more younger able-bodied people in intensive care and dying because of the virus. The World Health Organisation state that 3% of those contracting it will die. There is no cure and no vaccine.

The virus uses its outer prongs to lock on to a living cell. It then inserts its genetic material (RNA – Ribonucleicacid) into the cell. Once inside, it hijacks the machinery of the nucleus of the cell to make numerous copies of itself. It then destroys the cell, and the copies burst out and spread, to do the same thing to multiple other living cells and so the cycle continues, with the virus growing and multiplying exponentially.

The incubation period in a human can be anything from 0-15 days. Some people are asymptomatic and are oblivious to having caught it. Most people's immune system mounts an appropriate response, and they begin to feel better after around 5-7 days after a debilitating flu-like illness. In some people, the immune system goes into overdrive and starts attacking the lungs and other organs and the coronavirus. Infection can cause pneumonia, breathing difficulties, and further organ damage. In others, the immune system cannot cope, and they die. Some can appear to have overcome it and then deteriorate rapidly and die in a day, often with hypoxia – lack of oxygen. Some have been in a coma for 60 plus days, yet still, survive, but forever scarred and impaired.

It is reported that the first case of the disease was presented by a 55-year-old man in Hubei Province, China, on 17th November 2019. It spread and was located in Wuhan Province, China, a month later, in December 2019.

Other theories have emerged around the virus' origins:

• The eating of a diseased bat (or Pangolin) at a wet market. (This seems initially to be the most likely. ‘Pangolin and chips please, no vinegar.’).
• A leak or intentional dispersal from the biological warfare lab situated in Wuhan, China.
• It began in a region south of Wuhan as early as September 2019. Cambridge scientists are exploring the September theory by tracing pathogens. This earlier outbreak could have been carried by humans well before it mutated into a more lethal form.
• Others suggest that traces of faeces in Italy’s sewerage show the virus earlier than it began in China in the summer of 2019. This was later corroborated by research into blood samples of cancer patients taken in early October 2019 which had COVID-19 antibodies present, which means they would have had the disease in September 2019.

Regardless of the exact trigger point, the coronavirus was initially thought to have arrived in the United Kingdom on 28th February 2020, and the first confirmed case being on 31st February 2020. In August 2020, samples by the University of Nottingham discovered that the earliest person to contract and then die with the virus was a 75-year-old woman from Nottinghamshire who tested positive on 21st February 2020.

It is now understood that a traveller returning from South Korea on 28th February 2020 most likely caught the virus in Nottingham rather than Korea as first assumed. Professor John Ball, one of the authors of the study, said ‘there was widespread community transmission of coronavirus’ in Nottingham in early February 2020.

In the UK, we have the National Health Service (NHS). This means that medical care is free at the point of need for all its citizens. The working population pay for this service through their taxes. Each country around the world has different healthcare systems, some insurance based. The NHS does not have any added complications around whether someone can afford to pay for their care through insurance coverage or otherwise.

Key players in the management of this crisis in the United Kingdom are:

Boris Johnson; Prime Minister,

Matt Hancock; the Health Secretary of State,

Dominic Raab; the Foreign & Commonwealth Secretary of State (deputising for the P.M.),

Rishi Sunak; The Chancellor of the Exchequer,

Professor Sir Patrick Vallance; the Chief Scientific Advisor and chair of SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies),

Professor Chris Whitty; the Chief Medical officer for Public Health England,

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam; Deputy Chief Medical Officer for Public Health England.

The virus has caused tens of millions of infections and millions of deaths worldwide, creating a global lock-down and an almost dystopian planet, of death and deserted streets, never before experienced in modern history. Some describe it as an apocalyptic disease. The fabric of society is changed with people told not to socialise and to stay at home. These changes have a massive effect on our way of life, the economy, and family interaction. What will life be like when we come blinking out of our homes in months or years ahead, assuming we survive, into a new world that is changed forever?

Our hope is for a vaccine, yet this is impossible for many months, probably years, if at all. Sadly, the world has been unable to develop a vaccine for any of the previous coronavirus such as SARS, (or even the common cold, which is part of the coronavirus family), so it would be remarkable if they manage to do so with this one.

Immunity after the disease is unclear. There is nothing to suggest that previous sufferers have immunity, nor for how long it will last if they do. There is even the danger of those recovering from COVID-19 gaining, something known as 'enhanced immunity.' This relatively unknown syndrome happens with Dengue fever, which means you get the disease far worse the second time.

I start this diary uncertain whether I will be alive to finish it or sustain it if I become one of the coronavirus victims. Will I be too ill to continue? Will I die? Things change day-to-day, and suddenly the future is more uncertain than ever before in my lifetime.

No one would have believed, a matter of a few short weeks ago, the changes that this vicious, dangerous pandemic would bring to our lives: the deaths, the uncertainty, the trauma, the separation, and the loss.

This book is intended to bear witness, record statistics, collate news articles, personal stories, front-line accounts, precis government briefings, and offer an intimate view of family life during this historic and tragic period in the year 2020 and beyond.

Anticipated release date July 2021.

?KeithWright2021