On this day in 2020...

Extract from the upcoming book,

 ‘Coronavirus – 2020 Vision

A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’

- Keith Wright.

?KeithWright2021

THURSDAY 30TH APRIL 2020.

Facts and figures.

26,711 deaths in the UK overall.

674 deaths in UK over 24 hours.

60 in Scotland.

22 in Wales.

9 Northern Ireland.

391 in England.

There is a disparity of 192 from the overall UK figure given by Public Health England and the home countries' breakdown. These are care home and community deaths overnight.

There has been a total of 901,905 tests done overall in the UK.

81,611 were done yesterday. (Close to the 100k target set for today/tomorrow by Matt Hancock).

171,253 have so far tested positive.

6,032 new cases.

15,043 are still in hospital.

Total deaths –

Italy: 27,682. (323 overnight)

France: 24,045 (427 overnight)

Spain: 24,275 (453 overnight).

USA: Total cases 1,056,466, deaths 61,88.

(3.8 million US citizens were declared unemployed last week. The total unemployment is now 30 million people).

Global: Total cases 3,260,964, deaths 231,808

10,000 global deaths overnight.

214 countries and territories around the planet have now reported cases of COVID-19. All countries in North America and The Middle East have had at least one case. 33 countries have yet to report cases. The places on earth that remain untouched are getting fewer. Here are some, yet to be infected:

Nauru, Kiribati, and the Solomon Islands, in the Pacific.

Comoros, Lesotho, Tajikstan and Turkmenistan.

Five countries say they have managed to eradicate the virus: Anguilla, Greenland, the Caribbean Islands of St Barts and St Lucia, and Yemen.

New Zealand has said that it is well on the way to elimination.

Countries with very low populations or who are geographically remote inevitably have the best chance of escaping this deadly pandemic.

Times table.

Warwick University has researched the potential for easing lockdown on younger people. They believe they are much less likely than older people to catch the virus.

They calculate that people in their 50’s would be twenty times more likely to catch it than someone in their twenties.

Someone in their 70’s would be fifty times more likely to catch it than someone in their twenties.

Mild symptoms.

Some interesting evidence is emerging from The World Health Organisation, and the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health (RCPCH).

They have reviewed 78 different studies from around the world about how this strange virus affects children. No child is known to have passed COVID-19 on to an adult.

They are also significantly less likely to become infected than adults.

Children aged 6 years to 10 years were 32% asymptomatic.

Children have really mild symptoms, with only 0.6% becoming critically ill. Deaths among children are extremely rare, with only a handful of cases reported.

The air that I breathe.

As an indirect consequence of COVID-19, 1,700 premature deaths have been avoided in the UK in the past month alone because of better air quality. The lockdowns have reduced nitrogen dioxide levels (NO2) produced by vehicles and industry by 40% over the last 30 days. 11,00 deaths have been avoided across Europe.

The pan-European study also said it had prevented 6,000 new childhood asthma cases, 1.3 million fewer days off work and 600 fewer premature births.

The report was produced by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. (CREA). They are based in Finland.

It would be great if the ‘new normal’ could include a pollution reduction. This is an opportunity.

Daily news.

The Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishuskin has tested positive for COVID-19.

Useless.

News is out of just how desperate we were to try to get ventilators. Michael Gove, Secretary of State for the Cabinet, had celebrated the arrival of 300 ventilators from China. It turns out that these are pretty useless. They were designed for ambulances rather than hospitals, had an unreliable oxygen supply and were of basic quality. They could not be cleaned properly, were an unfamiliar design and had a confusing instruction manual. This is according to a letter written to Ministers. They warned that the ventilators, ‘if used, significant patient harm, including death, is likely.’

Author’s note. Other than that, they are perfectly fine.

The Department of Health claims the model was only ever intended as a transport ventilator and that there was currently spare ventilator capacity in hospitals.

Happy birthday Captain.

In cheerier news. Happy 100th birthday to Captain Tom Moore, who is the wonderful gentleman who has raised millions by walking in his garden for NHS charities using his Zimmer frame for support has been promoted to honorary Colonel by the Queen! Isn’t that amazing?

Not only that, but he has also received am RAF fly-past by Hurricane and Spitfire aeroplanes from the Battle of Britain Memorial Flight and had a train named after him.

Fittingly, during the morning, the money he has raised reached an astounding ￡30 million.

Colonel Tom Moore, who had a personal letter from the Queen, and (now) 140,000 birthday cards, thanked everyone and said,

 ‘It may take time, but we will win through in the end. Please stay home, stay safe. Tomorrow will be a good day.’

‘To get a burger.’

Police have so far handed out more than 9,000 fixed penalty fines to people flouting the lockdown rules. 80% were men, most under 35. This is just 0.02 of the population in England.

Deputy Chief Constable Sara Glen said that most people were compliant. Reports of anti-social behaviour have doubled in the last month to 215,000 compared with 106,000 for the same period last year.

Some craziness included youths driving from Leeds to Manchester supposedly to ‘get a burger,’ another in Cumbria was a man who went to a friend’s house to dye their hair. One man drove 100 miles to Keswick in the Lake District for a 20-minute walk.

Authors note – I do sense that if the lockdown is not eased next week that the use of cars will increase, and people will become less disciplined. A lot may depend on the weather. We will have to see what happens.

5 pm Press Briefing. The Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Prime Minister Johnson said – ‘We are throwing everything at it heart and soul, night and day.’

He thanked the British people and NHS.

 ‘They are rising to a challenge we have never seen in our lifetimes.’ And ‘Your effort and sacrifice is working. Those in hospital and ICU are falling.’

‘We avoided an uncontrollable and catastrophic epidemic where the reasonable worst-case scenario was 500,000 deaths.’

Peak cap.

Mr Johnson said that we are ‘now past the peak’ and on the downward slope.

Oxford University has a partnership now with AstraZeneca to develop inoculations, which is promising.

The Prime Minister will set out a plan next week to address:

1. The economy.
2. Schools.
3. Getting back to work.

The plan will be a road map with times and dates for each different aspect, but this will be determined by scientific advice.

Pillary

Next week, the 7th May 2020, is the date for the next lockdown review. This does not mean it will necessarily happen next week, but the plan will be shared. The Prime Minister reiterated that the 5-pillar plan needs to be satisfied:

1)    Be able to protect the NHS and their ability to cope.

2)    See a sustained and consistent fall in the daily death rate to ensure we have moved beyond the peak.

3)    Data from SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) shows that the infection rate is at a manageable level.

4)    They are confident that operational challenges such as hospital capacity and PPE and testing can meet future demand.

5)    They are confident that it will not risk a second peak.

A video was shown explaining the ‘r’ factor – the infection rate and why it must always remain below 1. This being the number of persons an infected person will, in turn, infect. If it goes higher, the virus will exponentially increase.

Rated.

The current ‘r’ rate is between 0.6 and 0.9 across the UK. (There are differences in regions). Sir Patrick Valance said that ‘next week, and the week after, and the week after that’ there will be trials which will help us determine the ‘r’ factor more accurately.

Author’s note. This might imply that there will be no release of the lockdown next week.

Mr Johnson said, somewhat cryptically, that they will gradually unlock the economy using ‘ingenious ways.’

‘All-cause mortality.’

Professor Chris Whitty talked about the disparity of numbers across countries and that it will only be much later in the process that we will have accurate figures which can be compared country to country. This will be by using an equation which includes ‘all-cause mortality adjusted for age.’

All scientists agree this is the test to use. This process uses ‘excess’ death figures.

Face covering at last.

The Prime Minister contradicted his Health Minister Matt Hancock and said that face covering will be useful in the future to ease transmission and give people the confidence to return to work.

Author’s note. This is welcome news as far as I am concerned, and something I have been in favour of from day one. It seems late in the day, however.

Family life.

I keep putting the wrong day at the top of each section of this diary – then having to correct it. With this lockdown, nobody has a clue what the hell day it is.

Scared.

I drove Jackie to the Chemists to get a prescription, and we thought it might be an idea to get a few bits from the supermarket. When we arrived, there was a very large queue stretching around the car park and doubling back. I had given Jackie a mask to wear. I was in my scruffs and had no coat etc.

Jackie seemed to be getting agitated as we surveyed the scene. I told her to leave it, and I would go in the next few days. She said she was scared to go in. I understood; it is not pleasant. We came away.

Jackie and I sang the ‘A-Team’ TV programme theme for the 5 pm briefing as Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Prof Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Valance came out to give the news. These are the cream of the crop.

We are perhaps becoming hysterical.

The big question.

Quiz nights with the Wrights. It was my son Andy’s turn to do it, and he has done us proud. The quizzes are getting more and more sophisticated, and this was a slide show presentation, including graphics and all sorts. I need to up my game, as it is my turn again next week.

I answered quite a few correctly, but the big question of the day, the hidden question eludes us all: will we die or survive?

Quote of the day:

‘It is the soldier, not the poet, who has given us freedom of speech.’ – Zell Miller.

?KeithWright2021

‘Coronavirus – 2020 Vision

A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’

- Keith Wright.

This day-by-day factual and complete account of events throughout the coronavirus pandemic, written as it happened, gives incredible insight into what life was like during this tragic and historic pandemic in the United Kingdom and worldwide.

It includes facts and figures, government initiatives, news events, moving individual accounts, and the horrific consequences, as they happened each day.

There is also a daily, personal slant on what life was like for the author and his family during what threatened to be an apocalyptic event.

It reveals all humanity in its idiocy, compassion and brilliance; the key elements, significant dates, statistics, human stories, tragedies, government strategies, the twists and turns, the humour and the obtuse.

The coronavirus will define this generation and identify these times, like other rare global historical events such as the bubonic plague and the World Wars.

This book is something to show your children and grandchildren when they ask you what it was like during such a frightening time. It can also be used as a point of reference for historians, commentators, and educators. It is also merely for posterity.

Were you alive? Do you recall it? Do you remember our Prime Minister almost died with Covid-19? Remember, the Queen saying ‘we’ll meet again’ during lockdown? Surely you recollect the EU conducting ‘an act of hostility’ towards the UK to get their hands on our vaccines? The thirty police officers fined for having a haircut, or the first man in the world to be vaccinated being called William Shakespeare from Stratford Upon Avon!

The whole world was plunged into chaos, with death, suffering and economic disaster. How did we cope? How did all of this happen? According to Keith’s wife, Jackie, it was ‘all because a man ate a bat.’

Keith Wright previously worked leading Corporate Investigations for a global pharmacy retailer. He has worked on major Crisis Management Incidents alongside senior executives impacting across the world of pharmaceutical product management.

Critically acclaimed crime novelist, and former CID detective, Wright moves from fiction to a factual account of arguably the most historic natural event to blight humanity in modern times.

He has four children and lives in Nottingham, England, with his wife, Jackie.

 All rights reserved ?Keith Wright 2021

Copyright?KeithWright 2021

If you are affected by any issues raised in the book contact:

The Samaritans or check local charities.

All information believed correct at the time of writing.

Diary entries gathered from an array of publicly available visual, audio and written sources and merged

to give a holistic and creative editorial view.

Glossary and source lists are available at the end of the book.

This book is dedicated to those who have lost their lives and the extraordinary bravery of front-line NHS staff, key workers, carers, and everyone who, in their own way, have contributed to help others. We are grateful, and we thank you, wholeheartedly.

Authors note.

My mother's first husband was killed in World War 2. His name was Arthur Smith. When I spoke with her about it, which, with hindsight, was too infrequently, she said he wasn't a fighter; he was a gentle, kind man, thrown into a hell with which he would struggle to adapt. He was an infantryman who died doing his duty for others, near Geel in Belgium, pushing through from the D-Day landings in 1944.

I use this as a loose analogy for our NHS heroes in the front line. These people are not emergency workers such as the police who are used to conflict and danger, nor are they like firefighters physically battling a fire and saving lives. These are people who have a caring disposition. (Not that the police and firefighters, don't care, bearing in mind that they risk their lives on a daily basis, but you see the point I am making).

 NHS front-line workers are sensitive to the human condition and understand the nuances of helping another human being survive illness and injury. They are also people who have now seen the effects of COVID-19 and the nightmare conditions it engenders. Every fibre of their being is focussed on kindness and caring. Yet they have to find peculiar courage. The courage to risk their own lives and possibly even their families lives to treat others every day. Not only do they have to wear a surgical mask, but they have to display the mask of quiet reassurance, professionalism, and positivity, despite their fears. They have to fight with decisions like holding a hand of an infected dying patient when your COVID instinct dictates you surely must not do this.

Dear reader, this is real courage. I hope they are well looked after once this is all resolved, and they receive counselling to help them recover from this incredibly traumatic time.

 BEFORE WE START THE DIARY. WHAT WAS IT ALL ABOUT?

As I commence this diary, this is what is known; our knowledge will grow over the months and years.

 Coronavirus is a respiratory virus discovered in 2019. In lay-person terms, it causes the lungs to clog up, inhibiting the oxygen supply to the blood, and eventually causing organ failure. Its potency is in how virulently contagious it is. Coronavirus is the virus that leads to the disease COVID-19.

It is believed to be a zoonotic illness, meaning it jumped species to infect humans. Researchers believe the most likely source is the Rhinolophus sinicus, otherwise known as the horseshoe bat which was consumed having been purchased from a ‘wet market’ in Hubei Province, China.

COVID-19 was originally known as 2019-nCoV. It stood for the year of its discovery - 2019, the fact that it was a new (novel) virus (n), and it came from the Corona Virus family (CoV).

 The name was changed to COVID-19 when it became a pandemic. The World Health Organisation had to allocate a name for the disease that did not relate to a person; a group of persons, an animal, a geographic location, was pronounceable, and relatable. Beyond this, the formal name for the virus given by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses called it the 'severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2' or SARS-CoV-2, because it is related to the virus that caused the outbreak of SARS in 2003. For the avoidance of doubt, it will be referred to by the name everyone uses; COVID-19 or ‘Covid.’

Early analysis of the virus suggests that two main strains exist, designated L and S. The L strain appears to be more prevalent (70% of cases); however, it is the S strain that is the ancestral version. L strain appears to be the most aggressive and spreads quickly. It should be noted that this is a new virus to humanity, and we are starting from absolute scratch in our understanding of it. Even as knowledge grows, the chances of mutation are possible, if not probable, and suddenly all bets can be off.

 The coronavirus is transferable by hand to mouth from surfaces or contact and close proximity with someone affected. As with all such viruses, it is also spread by droplets, contact, or airborne particles. It causes a continual dry cough, breathing difficulties, and some aches and pains. Latterly we discovered a loss of taste and smell was also a major symptom. It is a mild to moderate condition for 80 per cent of those who catch it. However, older people and those with underlying illnesses are at a much higher risk of death. As the disease progresses, we see more and more younger able-bodied people in intensive care and dying because of the virus. The World Health Organisation state that 3% of those contracting it will die. There is no cure and no vaccine.

The virus uses its outer prongs to lock on to a living cell. It then inserts its genetic material (RNA – Ribonucleicacid) into the cell. Once inside, it hijacks the machinery of the nucleus of the cell to make numerous copies of itself. It then destroys the cell, and the copies burst out and spread, to do the same thing to multiple other living cells and so the cycle continues, with the virus growing and multiplying exponentially.

The incubation period in a human can be anything from 0-15 days. Some people are asymptomatic and are oblivious to having caught it. Most people's immune system mounts an appropriate response, and they begin to feel better after around 5-7 days after a debilitating flu-like illness. In some people, the immune system goes into overdrive and starts attacking the lungs and other organs and the coronavirus. Infection can cause pneumonia, breathing difficulties, and further organ damage. In others, the immune system cannot cope, and they die. Some can appear to have overcome it and then deteriorate rapidly and die in a day, often with hypoxia – lack of oxygen. Some have been in a coma for 60 plus days, yet still, survive, but forever scarred and impaired.

It is reported that the first case of the disease was presented by a 55-year-old man in Hubei Province, China, on 17th November 2019. It spread and was located in Wuhan Province, China, a month later, in December 2019.

Other theories have emerged around the virus' origins:

• The eating of a diseased bat (or Pangolin) at a wet market. (This seems initially to be the most likely. ‘Pangolin and chips please, no vinegar.’).
• A leak or intentional dispersal from the biological warfare lab situated in Wuhan, China.
• It began in a region south of Wuhan as early as September 2019. Cambridge scientists are exploring the September theory by tracing pathogens. This earlier outbreak could have been carried by humans well before it mutated into a more lethal form.
• Others suggest that traces of faeces in Italy’s sewerage show the virus earlier than it began in China in the summer of 2019. This was later corroborated by research into blood samples of cancer patients taken in early October 2019 which had COVID-19 antibodies present, which means they would have had the disease in September 2019.

Regardless of the exact trigger point, the coronavirus was initially thought to have arrived in the United Kingdom on 28th February 2020, and the first confirmed case being on 31st February 2020. In August 2020, samples by the University of Nottingham discovered that the earliest person to contract and then die with the virus was a 75-year-old woman from Nottinghamshire who tested positive on 21st February 2020.

It is now understood that a traveller returning from South Korea on 28th February 2020 most likely caught the virus in Nottingham rather than Korea as first assumed. Professor John Ball, one of the authors of the study, said ‘there was widespread community transmission of coronavirus’ in Nottingham in early February 2020.

In the UK, we have the National Health Service (NHS). This means that medical care is free at the point of need for all its citizens. The working population pay for this service through their taxes. Each country around the world has different healthcare systems, some insurance based. The NHS does not have any added complications around whether someone can afford to pay for their care through insurance coverage or otherwise.

Key players in the management of this crisis in the United Kingdom are:

Boris Johnson; Prime Minister,

Matt Hancock; the Health Secretary of State,

Dominic Raab; the Foreign & Commonwealth Secretary of State (deputising for the P.M.),

Rishi Sunak; The Chancellor of the Exchequer,

Professor Sir Patrick Vallance; the Chief Scientific Advisor and chair of SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies),

Professor Chris Whitty; the Chief Medical officer for Public Health England,

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam; Deputy Chief Medical Officer for Public Health England.

The virus has caused tens of millions of infections and millions of deaths worldwide, creating a global lock-down and an almost dystopian planet, of death and deserted streets, never before experienced in modern history. Some describe it as an apocalyptic disease. The fabric of society is changed with people told not to socialise and to stay at home. These changes have a massive effect on our way of life, the economy, and family interaction. What will life be like when we come blinking out of our homes in months or years ahead, assuming we survive, into a new world that is changed forever?

Our hope is for a vaccine, yet this is impossible for many months, probably years, if at all. Sadly, the world has been unable to develop a vaccine for any of the previous coronavirus such as SARS, (or even the common cold, which is part of the coronavirus family), so it would be remarkable if they manage to do so with this one.

Immunity after the disease is unclear. There is nothing to suggest that previous sufferers have immunity, nor for how long it will last if they do. There is even the danger of those recovering from COVID-19 gaining, something known as 'enhanced immunity.' This relatively unknown syndrome happens with Denghi fever, which means you get the disease far worse the second time.

I start this diary uncertain whether I will be alive to finish it or sustain it if I become one of the coronavirus victims. Will I be too ill to continue? Will I die? Things change day-to-day, and suddenly the future is more uncertain than ever before in my lifetime.

No one would have believed, a matter of a few short weeks ago, the changes that this vicious, dangerous pandemic would bring to our lives: the deaths, the uncertainty, the trauma, the separation, and the loss.

This book is intended to bear witness, record statistics, collate news articles, personal stories, front-line accounts, precis government briefings, and offer an intimate view of family life during this historic and tragic period in the year 2020 and beyond.

 Release date July 2021.

?KeithWright2021