On this day in 2020

Extract from the upcoming book,

‘Coronavirus – 2020 Vision

A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’

- Keith Wright.

?KeithWright2021

WEDNESDAY 22ND APRIL 2020

Facts and figures.

763 deaths in the UK overnight.

77 in Scotland (total 1062).

15 in Wales (624).

6 in N. Ireland (209).

665 in England (16,272).

18,106 UK deaths in total (hospital).

133,595 people have tested positive in the UK.

There have been 4,451 new cases.

 Daily news.

Stuff Turkey.

The PPE from Turkey has finally arrived at RAF Brize Norton, albeit less than was ordered. There is a bit of a theme with companies offering the world to the government, notably concerning PPE, and then being unable to deliver the quantities once they have signed on the dotted line.

There is news that the state of Missouri is suing China over the coronavirus. They seek compensation for the damage and injury caused to people and the economy. In response, China has asked for unity around the world and explained that American civil law has no jurisdiction over Chinese Sovereignty.

‘Carried out in a body bag.’

There is a compelling account in the press from a patient, a former rowing champion who has survived COVID-19 in the ICU and then in general wards. He tells of the hospital ward's hellish conditions, with many men, shouting and crying out. He described how uncomfortable the CPAP machine was, forcing oxygen into him while sealed around the face. He said that he saw some men ripping off their masks and saying they wanted to die, they would ring their loved ones and then ‘ten minutes later were being carried out in a body bag.’

He spoke of the inspiration he took from two older men in his ward. They were determined to survive, and he said that even when he was very ill, he was aware of them every hour, getting out of bed and just walking a little way around the ward. He couldn’t imagine being able to do this, but he thought that if they could do it at their age, then he could, and so, he managed to get himself out of bed and began forcing himself to move around. He and the two older men survived.

 5 pm Press Briefing – Dominic Raab Secretary of State for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.

One of the accompanying experts was General Sir Nicholas Carter GCB, CBE, DSO, ADC from the armed services, which is the first time he, and his accompanying letters, has appeared. Professor Chris Whitty joined the ensemble.

3 times around the world per day.

The General explained how their involvement is the single greatest logistical challenge in 40 years, notably around delivering PPE to health workers. The deliveries each day is the equivalent of a logistics chain three times around the world. The army has helped to staff test centres and pop-up testing centres. Between 3-4000 troops have been involved, with 20,000 on standby. Seven hospitals have been built, and they have over 70 tasks still ongoing.

Double down.

Professor Chris Whitty gave another sobering account of the situation so far, particularly around keeping the r factor to well below 1. Were it to go above that transmission rate; then we would very quickly be in serious trouble.

 ‘If we got back to where it was doubling every few days, very quickly it would go from bad numbers to really bad, and the NHS would struggle to cope.’

Prof Whitty says in the long run the exit from lockdown will be either a vaccine and/or highly effective drugs so that people stop dying from the disease. The probability of having either of these by the end of the year is ‘incredibly small.’ He said,

 ‘We’ll have to rely on social measures – it is going to take a long time.’

After hopes being raised with the prospect of a vaccine, Prof Whitty has added a dose of scientific realism.

 ‘This disease is not going to be eradicated, it is not going to disappear – we have to accept we are going to be with it globally for the foreseeable future.’ He added.

 ‘If people are hoping it’s suddenly going to move from where we are now in lockdown suddenly into everything’s gone, that is a wholly unrealistic expectation. We’re going to have to do a lot of things for a long period of time.’

He made it clear that even if we get a vaccine, which is ‘proof of concept’ after the trials, there is still a hell of a lot to do thereafter.

Calm.

Professor Whitty has a very calm manner, yet I feel he was trying to give us a reality check, whether this landed, I am not sure. For example, he said,

 ‘I’m sure we will see a high mortality rate in care homes.’

Author’s retrospective note. A prophetic comment. Maybe he knew something we did not?

A question was asked about Exercise Cygnus, an operation in 2016, which rehearsed the scenario of a virus where tens of thousands die. The findings have not been published. Dominic Raab said he did not recall reading the findings.

Author's note. I have some knowledge of crisis management protocols, and I think it is worth mentioning that Mr Raab not reading the results, in itself, is not necessarily unusual. What tends to happen is that the ongoing protocols are updated after such an exercise, feeding learnings into it.

What would be a problem is if wholesale recommendations, rather than activity learnings, had not been actioned, such as stockpiling PPE, ventilators, or other such broader recommendations. The findings of the report are not being made available, so we may never know. Maybe that tells us something? I doubt it will be withheld from any subsequent enquiry into the handling of the pandemic.

 Family life.

We had the virtual quiz night tonight. These are becoming the highlight of the social calendar. Indeed, the only social element of our lives. I have another tomorrow with my gang and then a games session over video with Lily and the lads on Saturday.

Birdsong.

I was able to sit outside with Jackie for a couple of hours around lunchtime, and it was pleasant. It feels very much that the pace of life has slowed somewhat. We noticed how evident the birdsong was. Was it because of the reduced traffic noise? The sky is also very blue.

The impact of the world being on lockdown has been beneficial for the planet.

Venice's waters are now transparent, not mucky grey, the ozone layer is improving, and cities' views without smog are becoming really clear. These are the lockdown benefits, and I hope people find ways to perpetuate this after it is eventually over. People working from home would have a huge impact, I think, and it is about time companies got into the 21st century and allowed this to happen as a norm rather than the exception.

Quote of the day:

‘But I know somehow, that only when it is dark enough can you see the stars.’ – Martin Luther King Jr.

?KeithWright2021

‘Coronavirus – 2020 Vision

A complete diary and events of the COVID-19 pandemic.’

- Keith Wright.

This day-by-day factual and complete account of events throughout the coronavirus pandemic, written as it happened, gives incredible insight into what life was like during this tragic and historic pandemic in the United Kingdom and worldwide.

It includes facts and figures, government initiatives, news events, moving individual accounts, and the horrific consequences, as they happened each day.

There is also a daily, personal slant on what life was like for the author and his family during what threatened to be an apocalyptic event.

It reveals all humanity in its idiocy, compassion and brilliance; the key elements, significant dates, statistics, human stories, tragedies, government strategies, the twists and turns, the humour and the obtuse.

The coronavirus will define this generation and identify these times, like other rare global historical events such as the bubonic plague and the World Wars.

This book is something to show your children and grandchildren when they ask you what it was like during such a frightening time. It can also be used as a point of reference for historians, commentators, and educators. It is also merely for posterity.

Were you alive? Do you recall it? Do you remember our Prime Minister almost died with Covid-19? Remember, the Queen saying ‘we’ll meet again’ during lockdown? Surely you recollect the EU conducting ‘an act of hostility’ towards the UK to get their hands on our vaccines? The thirty police officers fined for having a haircut, or the first man in the world to be vaccinated being called William Shakespeare from Stratford Upon Avon!

The whole world was plunged into chaos, with death, suffering, and economic disaster. How did we cope? How did all of this happen? According to Keith’s wife, Jackie, it was ‘all because a man ate a bat.’

Keith Wright previously worked leading Corporate Investigations for a global pharmacy retailer. He has worked on major Crisis Management Incidents alongside senior executives impacting across the world of pharmaceutical product management.

Critically acclaimed crime novelist, and former CID detective, Wright moves from fiction to a factual account of arguably the most historic natural event to blight humanity in modern times.

He has four children and lives in Nottingham, England, with his wife, Jackie.

All rights reserved ?Keith Wright 2021

Copyright?KeithWright 2021

If you are affected by any issues raised in the book contact:

The Samaritans or check local charities.

 All information believed correct at the time of writing.

 Diary entries gathered from an array of publicly available visual, audio, and written sources and merged to give a holistic and creative editorial view.

 Glossary and source lists are available at the end of the book.

  This book is dedicated to those who have lost their lives and the extraordinary bravery of front-line NHS staff, key workers, carers, and everyone who, in their own way, have contributed to help others. We are grateful, and we thank you, wholeheartedly.

Author's note.

My mother's first husband was killed in World War 2. His name was Arthur Smith. When I spoke with her about it, which, with hindsight, was too infrequently, she said he wasn't a fighter; he was a gentle, kind man, thrown into a hell with which he would struggle to adapt. He was an infantryman who died doing his duty for others, near Geel in Belgium, pushing through from the D-Day landings in 1944.

I use this as a loose analogy for our NHS heroes in the front line. These people are not emergency workers such as the police who are used to conflict and danger, nor are they like firefighters physically battling a fire and saving lives. These are people who have a caring disposition. (Not that the police and firefighters, don't care, bearing in mind that they risk their lives on a daily basis, but you see the point I am making).

 NHS front-line workers are sensitive to the human condition and understand the nuances of helping another human being survive illness and injury. They are also people who have now seen the effects of COVID-19 and the nightmare conditions it engenders. Every fibre of their being is focussed on kindness and caring. Yet they have to find peculiar courage. The courage to risk their own lives and possibly even their families lives to treat others every day. Not only do they have to wear a surgical mask, but they have to display the mask of quiet reassurance, professionalism, and positivity, despite their fears. They have to fight with decisions like holding a hand of an infected dying patient when your COVID instinct dictates you surely must not do this.

Dear reader, this is real courage. I hope they are well looked after once this is all resolved, and they receive counselling to help them recover from this incredibly traumatic time.

 BEFORE WE START THE DIARY. WHAT WAS IT ALL ABOUT?

 As I begin this diary, this is what is known; our knowledge will grow over the months and years.

 Coronavirus is a respiratory virus discovered in 2019. In lay-person terms, it causes the lungs to clog up, inhibiting the oxygen supply to the blood, and eventually causing organ failure. Its potency is in how virulently contagious it is. Coronavirus is the virus that leads to the disease COVID-19.

It is believed to be a zoonotic illness, meaning it jumped species to infect humans. Researchers believe the most likely source is the Rhinolophus sinicus, otherwise known as the horseshoe bat which was consumed having been purchased from a ‘wet market’ in Hubei Province, China.

COVID-19 was originally known as 2019-nCoV. It stood for the year of its discovery - 2019, the fact that it was a new (novel) virus (n), and it came from the Corona Virus family (CoV).

 The name was changed to COVID-19 when it became a pandemic. The World Health Organisation had to allocate a name for the disease that did not relate to a person; a group of persons, an animal, a geographic location, was pronounceable, and relatable. Beyond this, the formal name for the virus given by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses called it the 'severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2' or SARS-CoV-2, because it is related to the virus that caused the outbreak of SARS in 2003. For the avoidance of doubt, it will be referred to by the name everyone uses; COVID-19 or ‘Covid.’

Early analysis of the virus suggests that two main strains exist, designated L and S. The L strain appears to be more prevalent (70% of cases); however, it is the S strain that is the ancestral version. L strain appears to be the most aggressive and spreads quickly. It should be noted that this is a new virus to humanity, and we are starting from absolute scratch in our understanding of it. Even as knowledge grows, the chances of mutation are possible, if not probable, and suddenly all bets can be off.

 The coronavirus is transferable by hand to mouth from surfaces or contact and close proximity with someone affected. As with all such viruses, it is also spread by droplets, contact, or airborne particles. It causes a continual dry cough, breathing difficulties, and some aches and pains. Latterly we discovered a loss of taste and smell was also a major symptom. It is a mild to moderate condition for 80 per cent of those who catch it. However, older people and those with underlying illnesses are at a much higher risk of death. As the disease progresses, we see more and more younger able-bodied people in intensive care and dying because of the virus. The World Health Organisation state that 3% of those contracting it will die. There is no cure and no vaccine.

The virus uses its outer prongs to lock on to a living cell. It then inserts its genetic material (RNA – Ribonucleicacid) into the cell. Once inside, it hijacks the machinery of the nucleus of the cell to make numerous copies of itself. It then destroys the cell, and the copies burst out and spread, to do the same thing to multiple other living cells and so the cycle continues, with the virus growing and multiplying exponentially.

The incubation period in a human can be anything from 0-15 days. Some people are asymptomatic and are oblivious to having caught it. Most people's immune system mounts an appropriate response, and they begin to feel better after around 5-7 days after a debilitating flu-like illness. In some people, the immune system goes into overdrive and starts attacking the lungs and other organs and the coronavirus. Infection can cause pneumonia, breathing difficulties, and further organ damage. In others, the immune system cannot cope, and they die. Some can appear to have overcome it and then deteriorate rapidly and die in a day, often with hypoxia – lack of oxygen. Some have been in a coma for 60 plus days, yet still, survive, but forever scarred and impaired.

It is reported that the first case of the disease was presented by a 55-year-old man in Hubei Province, China, on 17th November 2019. It spread and was located in Wuhan Province, China, a month later, in December 2019.

Other theories have emerged around the virus' origins:

• The eating of a diseased bat (or Pangolin) at a wet market. (This seems initially to be the most likely. ‘Pangolin and chips please, no vinegar.’).
• A leak or intentional dispersal from the biological warfare lab situated in Wuhan, China.
• It began in a region south of Wuhan as early as September 2019. Cambridge scientists are exploring the September theory by tracing pathogens. This earlier outbreak could have been carried by humans well before it mutated into a more lethal form.
• Others suggest that traces of feces in Italy’s sewerage show the virus earlier than it began in China in the summer of 2019. This was later corroborated by research into blood samples of cancer patients taken in early October 2019 which had COVID-19 antibodies present, which means they would have had the disease in September 2019.

Regardless of the exact trigger point, the coronavirus was initially thought to have arrived in the United Kingdom on 28th February 2020, and the first confirmed case being on 31st February 2020. In August 2020, samples by the University of Nottingham discovered that the earliest person to contract and then die with the virus was a 75-year-old woman from Nottinghamshire who tested positive on 21st February 2020.

It is now understood that a traveller returning from South Korea on 28th February 2020 most likely caught the virus in Nottingham rather than Korea as first assumed. Professor John Ball, one of the authors of the study, said ‘there was widespread community transmission of coronavirus’ in Nottingham in early February 2020.

In the UK, we have the National Health Service (NHS). This means that medical care is free at the point of need for all its citizens. The working population pay for this service through their taxes. Each country around the world has different healthcare systems, some insurance based. The NHS does not have any added complications around whether someone can afford to pay for their care through insurance coverage or otherwise.

Key players in the management of this crisis in the United Kingdom are:

Boris Johnson; Prime Minister,

Matt Hancock; the Health Secretary of State,

Dominic Raab; the Foreign & Commonwealth Secretary of State (deputising for the P.M.),

Rishi Sunak; The Chancellor of the Exchequer,

Professor Sir Patrick Vallance; the Chief Scientific Advisor and chair of SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies),

Professor Chris Whitty; the Chief Medical officer for Public Health England,

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam; Deputy Chief Medical Officer for Public Health England.

The virus has caused tens of millions of infections and millions of deaths worldwide, creating a global lock-down and an almost dystopian planet, of death and deserted streets, never before experienced in modern history. Some describe it as an apocalyptic disease. The fabric of society is changed with people told not to socialise and to stay at home. These changes have a massive effect on our way of life, the economy, and family interaction. What will life be like when we come blinking out of our homes in months or years ahead, assuming we survive, into a new world that is changed forever?

Our hope is for a vaccine, yet this is impossible for many months, probably years, if at all. Sadly, the world has been unable to develop a vaccine for any of the previous coronavirus such as SARS, (or even the common cold, which is part of the coronavirus family), so it would be remarkable if they manage to do so with this one.

Immunity after the disease is unclear. There is nothing to suggest that previous sufferers have immunity, nor for how long it will last if they do. There is even the danger of those recovering from COVID-19 gaining, something known as 'enhanced immunity.' This relatively unknown syndrome happens with Denghi fever, which means you get the disease far worse the second time.

I start this diary uncertain whether I will be alive to finish it or sustain it if I become one of the coronavirus victims. Will I be too ill to continue? Will I die? Things change day-to-day, and suddenly the future is more uncertain than ever before in my lifetime.

No one would have believed, a matter of a few short weeks ago, the changes that this vicious, dangerous pandemic would bring to our lives: the deaths, the uncertainty, the trauma, the separation, and the loss.

This book is intended to bear witness, record statistics, collate news articles, personal stories, front-line accounts, precis government briefings, and offer an intimate view of family life during this historic and tragic period in the year 2020 and beyond.

 Release date July 2021.

?KeithWright2021