Day 1109: Relentless Russian Strikes and Ukrainian Counterstrikes Define the Battlefield

The last 48 hours have seen an intensification of combat along multiple fronts in Ukraine, with Russian forces pressing hard against Ukrainian defenses, particularly in the eastern and southern regions. Fighting has been especially fierce near Bakhmut and Avdiivka, where Russian assaults have been repelled with heavy losses. In response, Ukraine has executed precision counterstrikes on Russian logistics hubs, ammunition depots, and key infrastructure, further degrading the Kremlin's operational capabilities. Notably, Ukrainian long-range strikes targeted command posts deep behind enemy lines, signaling a shift in tactical depth. Meanwhile, drone warfare has reached unprecedented levels, with both sides employing swarms of UAVs to disrupt enemy movements, artillery positions, and supply convoys. Reports indicate that Ukraine’s use of domestically-produced FPV drones is proving highly effective in neutralizing Russian armored units, further tilting the battlefield advantage in favor of Ukrainian defenders.

Frontline Overview

Northeast & Eastern Fronts: Kharkiv, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk

The Kharkiv front has witnessed intense engagements, with Russian forces launching six coordinated assaults on Ukrainian defensive positions near Vovchansk and Kindrashivka. These offensives were repelled with significant Russian losses, as Ukrainian forces leveraged fortified positions and precision artillery strikes. Reports indicate that Russian troops are facing severe logistical shortages in this sector, limiting their ability to sustain prolonged offensives. Additionally, Ukrainian special operations units have been conducting raids on Russian supply depots in the region, further straining the Kremlin’s capacity to reinforce its frontline troops.

In the Lyman sector, the enemy made repeated attempts to break through Ukrainian defensive lines near Yampilivka, Torske, Zelena Dolyna, and Kolodyazi. Despite launching six major assaults in a span of 48 hours, Russian troops failed to achieve any meaningful territorial gains. Ukrainian artillery units played a decisive role in these battles, employing long-range precision strikes to disrupt Russian attack formations before they could fully materialize. Furthermore, Ukrainian electronic warfare teams successfully jammed Russian communications, causing confusion within the enemy ranks and reducing their coordination effectiveness.

Further south, in the Siversk and Kramatorsk regions, Russian forces conducted two high-intensity attacks near Bilohorivka. These assaults were swiftly neutralized by Ukrainian defensive units, who relied on a combination of anti-tank guided missiles and UAV-directed artillery fire to repel the incursions. Meanwhile, in Kramatorsk, Russian forces attempted to gain a foothold near Vasyukivka and Predtechyne, where brutal close-quarters combat ensued. Ukrainian troops managed to inflict severe casualties on advancing Russian units, forcing them to retreat under the weight of relentless counterattacks. Ukrainian military sources suggest that the enemy’s reliance on newly-mobilized, poorly-trained personnel is contributing to their inability to hold ground in these contested regions.

Southern Donetsk & Zaporizhzhia: Pokrovsk, Orikhiv, Hulyaipole

The Pokrovsk axis has been the site of unrelenting Russian aggression, with Ukrainian defenders repelling 49 separate attacks in the last 48 hours. Russian troops attempted to break through Ukrainian defensive lines in Berezivka, Myrne, Pokrovsk, and Uspenivka, but every assault was met with intense resistance, resulting in heavy casualties for the invading forces. Ukrainian artillery units, supported by precision drone targeting, managed to neutralize advancing Russian mechanized infantry before they could gain ground. Reports indicate that Russian commanders are resorting to mass infantry waves in an attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian positions, a tactic that has led to unsustainable personnel losses.

Further south, in the Novopavlivsk and Orikhiv sectors, Russian forces conducted 16 large-scale offensives near Novopil, Kostyantynopil, and Burbatske. Each of these attacks was systematically countered by Ukrainian defenders who utilized a combination of HIMARS strikes and entrenched defensive lines to hold their ground. Ukrainian intelligence suggests that Russian forces in this sector are experiencing critical ammunition shortages, with some units reportedly rationing artillery shells. Additionally, Ukrainian drone strikes have successfully targeted Russian supply convoys moving towards the front, exacerbating the logistical crisis for the invading forces.

The Hulyaipole front has seen six significant engagements near Charivne, where Russian troops attempted to advance but suffered heavy losses due to Ukrainian drone precision strikes and anti-tank defenses. Ukrainian defenders have also engaged in counteroffensive operations, targeting Russian troop concentrations and command posts deep within occupied territories. With continued precision strikes and highly effective defensive coordination, Ukraine has not only held its lines in these key sectors but has also inflicted substantial damage on Russian forces attempting to breach their positions.

Kursk Operational Zone

Ukrainian forces continue limited operations within Russian territory in Kursk Oblast, disrupting logistics and military infrastructure. Ukrainian drone strikes targeted Russian fuel depots, ammunition storage facilities, and key rail junctions used for military logistics. Reports indicate that Ukrainian special operations units have carried out sabotage missions against Russian supply convoys, causing significant delays in the transportation of reinforcements and equipment to frontline units. The Russian military has attempted to reinforce the region with additional air defense systems and electronic warfare measures, but Ukrainian precision strikes have continued to penetrate these defenses. Meanwhile, the use of kamikaze drones and long-range artillery fire has proven effective in disabling Russian radar installations and command centers, further complicating Moscow’s ability to coordinate its war efforts in the region.

Strategic Dynamics

Massive Aerial Assaults and Counterstrikes

The last 48 hours have witnessed an unprecedented escalation in aerial warfare. Russian forces launched 208 Shahed drones and 91 airstrikes, aiming to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and cripple strategic infrastructure. Despite the intensity of the assault, Ukrainian air defense systems intercepted 107 Shahed drones, preventing extensive damage to key military and civilian locations. However, several missile strikes hit energy infrastructure in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipro, leaving over 250,000 civilians without power. The destruction of a residential building in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast resulted in the deaths of at least six civilians, including a child, while emergency services continue to search for survivors trapped under the rubble.

Ukrainian forces responded with precision counterstrikes, targeting critical Russian military infrastructure. A successful missile strike destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Selydove (Donetsk region), causing secondary explosions that lasted for hours. Simultaneously, drone and missile strikes hit Ilsk oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, a major fuel supplier for Russian military operations, significantly disrupting the Kremlin’s logistical chain. Reports indicate that at least 15 Russian personnel were killed in these strikes, with dozens more injured.

In addition to targeting supply lines, Ukraine’s HIMARS and long-range artillery successfully eliminated three Russian air defense systems, including two S-300 batteries positioned near Melitopol. The destruction of these air defenses has increased the vulnerability of Russian frontline positions to Ukrainian drone and missile attacks. Furthermore, precision artillery strikes have neutralized several Russian artillery positions that had been shelling Ukrainian defensive lines in Avdiivka and Kupiansk. The cumulative effect of these counterstrikes is forcing Russia to relocate vital air defense assets, thereby reducing their ability to control the skies over occupied territories.

Despite the effectiveness of Ukrainian countermeasures, Russian forces continue to adapt their tactics, increasing their reliance on glide bombs and ballistic missile strikes. Intelligence reports suggest that at least 35 Russian aircraft participated in coordinated bombing runs over Donetsk and Luhansk regions, deploying a combination of FAB-500 guided bombs and Kh-31P anti-radar missiles. These strikes have targeted Ukrainian frontline positions as well as civilian infrastructure, causing significant destruction and further straining humanitarian relief efforts. Ukrainian military analysts warn that unless additional Western air defense systems arrive soon, Russia may escalate its aerial campaign further, attempting to exhaust Ukraine’s existing air defense stockpiles.

Russian Troop Movements and Tactical Adjustments

Reports indicate that Russian forces are rotating exhausted units out of Avdiivka and Marinka, replacing them with less experienced formations, many of whom are newly mobilized personnel with minimal training. This tactical reshuffle comes as Russian units in these sectors have suffered catastrophic losses, with estimates suggesting over 1,500 casualties in the past two days alone. Despite reinforcements, Russian assaults have largely stalled due to high attrition rates, dwindling ammunition supplies, and the effectiveness of Ukrainian counter-battery fire.

Increased Russian use of glide bombs (KAB) in Donetsk and Sumy regions suggests a shift in Russian air tactics, aimed at overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses. Over the past 48 hours, at least 50 guided bombs have been dropped on Ukrainian defensive positions, targeting trenches and fortifications. However, Ukrainian electronic warfare systems have managed to disrupt Russian targeting mechanisms, reducing the effectiveness of these strikes. The rising dependency on glide bombs also highlights Russia’s continued struggle to achieve air superiority in contested zones, forcing them to rely on high-altitude munitions rather than direct close-air support.

Russian commanders are reportedly facing severe supply shortages in some sectors, particularly near Kupiansk and Zaporizhzhia, where resupply convoys have been repeatedly targeted by Ukrainian precision strikes. Intelligence sources indicate that Russian forces in these areas are rationing artillery shells, with some units firing at only 30% of their previous daily rate due to depleted stockpiles. Morale among Russian troops remains low, with intercepted communications suggesting increasing desertion rates and internal conflicts between frontline commanders and logistics officers over the lack of adequate supplies. The ongoing logistical crisis is further exacerbated by Ukraine’s successful targeting of key transport nodes, including rail depots and fuel storage facilities, which have disrupted the Kremlin’s ability to reinforce its units effectively.

Humanitarian Impact & Civilian Toll

The humanitarian toll continues to rise as Russian missile and drone strikes on Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia have resulted in widespread destruction. Over the past 48 hours, at least 64 civilians have been killed and more than 172 injured, with emergency medical units overwhelmed as they attempt to treat the wounded. Ukrainian emergency services are operating around the clock to clear rubble, rescue survivors, and provide medical assistance to those affected by the attacks. In Kharkiv, entire residential blocks have been reduced to ruins after repeated strikes, with rescuers still searching for at least 25 missing persons feared trapped under the debris. In Zaporizhzhia, the shelling of civilian infrastructure has cut off electricity to over 300,000 residents, exacerbating the already dire humanitarian situation. The relentless aerial bombardment has also damaged multiple hospitals and schools, forcing the relocation of hundreds of patients and disrupting education for thousands of children. The psychological toll on civilians remains devastating, with humanitarian organizations reporting a dramatic rise in PTSD cases and trauma-related disorders.

In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a residential building was completely destroyed by a Russian missile, leaving at least six civilians dead, including a child. Local officials report that several families remain trapped under the debris, as search and rescue operations continue despite ongoing threats of further strikes. The regional governor has confirmed that critical infrastructure, including water supply systems and power grids, has also been severely damaged, leaving thousands without access to basic utilities.

Ukraine has intensified evacuation efforts in Pokrovsk and Orikhiv, where heavy Russian shelling has made civilian life nearly impossible. More than 4,500 people have been relocated in the past two days, many of whom are elderly or disabled individuals unable to evacuate on their own. Humanitarian corridors remain under constant threat, with Russian artillery strikes targeting known evacuation routes, complicating the process and forcing many to flee under dangerous conditions.

International humanitarian aid efforts remain ongoing, with the EU announcing an additional €500 million aid package aimed at rebuilding critical infrastructure and supporting displaced civilians. Humanitarian organizations, including the Red Cross and the UN Refugee Agency, have deployed additional resources to aid those affected, while Poland, Germany, and the United States have pledged further medical supplies and temporary housing solutions for those displaced by the recent escalation. The Ukrainian government has also called for urgent assistance in providing heating and shelter for civilians facing deteriorating winter conditions as missile strikes continue to target energy facilities, exacerbating the already dire situation.

Broader Geopolitical Implications

Western Military Aid & Strategic Decisions

The UK has signaled its readiness to send peacekeeping troops and air support to Ukraine, marking a potential shift in NATO's direct involvement in the war. This development follows a series of high-level discussions within the British government regarding a more proactive role in stabilizing Ukraine’s defensive posture. British defense officials have emphasized that any deployment would be contingent upon NATO consensus and aligned with Ukraine’s strategic needs. Additionally, the UK is increasing military aid shipments, including precision artillery rounds and mobile radar systems designed to counter Russian missile and drone attacks.

France has confirmed additional deliveries of AMX-10 RC armored vehicles, which have proven highly mobile and effective against Russian armored columns. Alongside these vehicles, French authorities have pledged further supplies of anti-aircraft systems, with a specific focus on countering Russia’s increasing reliance on glide bombs and low-flying drones. The French government has also hinted at a potential increase in the supply of SCALP-EG long-range cruise missiles, capable of striking deep into Russian-controlled territory, further disrupting Moscow’s logistics.

Discussions are intensifying within NATO regarding the potential transfer of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, a move that could drastically impact Russian supply lines. While some NATO member states remain cautious about escalating tensions with Moscow, others argue that the ability to strike key Russian command centers and supply hubs is critical for Ukraine’s success. Ukrainian officials have reiterated their need for ATACMS to disrupt Russia’s military infrastructure in occupied territories, particularly in Crimea and along key railway corridors in Donetsk and Luhansk.

The US remains locked in political negotiations over the next aid package, with internal disputes delaying much-needed military assistance. While bipartisan support for Ukraine exists, political wrangling in Congress has slowed the approval of additional funding for weapons and logistical support. President Biden has urged lawmakers to pass the aid package swiftly, warning that any delays could have severe consequences for Ukraine’s ability to sustain its current defensive operations. Meanwhile, US military aid continues to flow through existing agreements, with another batch of Patriot missile interceptors and armored personnel carriers expected to arrive in Ukraine within the next few weeks. Intelligence analysts caution that prolonged delays in US support could weaken Ukraine’s battlefield resilience at a critical juncture in the war.

Escalation Concerns

• Russia’s increased use of glide bombs and missile barrages is drawing international condemnation, with calls for stronger sanctions.
• Ukraine and European allies are exploring deeper cooperation in joint defense production, particularly in drone technology and ammunition manufacturing.
• Israeli-Hamas negotiations continue to impact global attention on Ukraine, with analysts warning that shifting geopolitical priorities could affect Western military aid commitments.

Conclusion

Ukraine’s resilience remains the defining feature of this war, with its forces holding firm despite relentless Russian attacks. While Moscow continues to push forward, the heavy losses it sustains indicate diminishing offensive capabilities. As Ukraine strengthens its defensive positions and refines its counterstrike strategies, Western aid remains critical in ensuring sustained resistance against Russian aggression.

With continued support and effective battlefield tactics, Ukraine’s defenders are proving that Putin’s war machine is neither invincible nor sustainable. The coming days will test both sides’ endurance, but Ukraine’s will to fight remains unshaken.

Glory to Ukraine! ????