Data: Win for Instagram, ChatGPT World, Slow Cuts

THE DATA.

1. TikTok Shop, TikTok Ban, Win for Instagram

The rise of social commerce is here, making a ban an interesting moment for Instagram.

2. A ChatGPT world for Ai tools.

Over the last year, ChatGPT has captured a significant portion of paid subscriptions.

3. Slow Cuts = 24% Historical Returns

When will the FED cut and how fast. Data supports either.

?? THIS WEEK

In the past week, despite “hot” headline inflation data, the market largely overlooked it. The primary reason is straightforward: the significant portion of the rise in CPI and PPI stemmed from lagging real estate data, accounting for 60%. Moreover, fluctuations in volatile energy prices primarily drove these indices. In essence, incorporating real-time real estate data indicates that CPI would have only risen by 0.8% year over year. Additionally, notable news emerged regarding the potential TikTok ban, positioning Instagram favorably for social commerce. More in a sec.

Data #1

TikTok Shopping is Becoming a Thing. Lending Support to Instagram's Commerce Efforts

Why does this data matter?

This week, TikTok has been making headlines following a vote in the house to essentially ban the app in the US. The timing is particularly intriguing given the recent shift in consumer behavior. Credit card data indicates a growing trend in social commerce. As many are aware, this aligns with a major theme for us at Avory, as we believe that commerce will increasingly gravitate towards platforms where discovery occurs. Over the past 3-4 months, consumers who shop on platforms like Shein have been allocating approximately 23% of their budget to TikTok shops. With Instagram's intensified efforts in this realm, we anticipate they are well-positioned to capitalize on this shift.

Data #2

A ChatGPT World for Ai Tools

Why does this data matter?

The data is clear: paid subscriptions for AI products have transitioned from being well spread out to being consolidated among just a few key players. Jasper emerged as a significant market leader for paid subscriptions in 2022 and early 2023. However, with the emergence of ChatGPT onto the prominent stage, it has effectively displaced many competitors. Despite the continual emergence of new tools on a daily basis, it's intriguing to consider how the maker of the foundational model also commands the lion's share of the market from the application side.

Data #3

Slow Rate Cuts Tend to be Good for Markets.

Why does this data matter?

Concerns have arisen regarding the Federal Reserve's pace of rate cuts. Nevertheless, there's reassurance in the prospect of a gradual reduction in rates. Historical evidence indicates that such a measured approach tends to yield favorable outcomes for stocks, with an average return of 24%. So, while there may be apprehensions, adopting a deliberate pace in rate adjustments could pave the way for optimal stock performance.