Quasi-lock-down explained with data of Totally Recovered Patients

Based on data presented at worldometers.info, one can see fascinating insights. This site combines total cases (TC), total deaths (TD), and totally recovered (TR) patients. I have calculated the rate of TR/TC, which I called the recovery index (RI). It is showing how many people recovered from being infected, once they officially been confirmed as having COVID-19. The other patients still Corona-infected can improve further over the treatment, but for the analysis, I don't count them.

Recovery Index (RI) for China is 94%, which is understandable, as the pandemic is over there. However, for some other big countries, one can observe that RI is > 60% too. Those countries are like South Korea, Iceland, Iran, Austria, Iraq while Germany has 59%, and Australia 58% (see the full data at the end).

Now let's see the data for the countries with the lowest RI. So, for example, France has only 2%, the US 1%, and Finland 0% (obviously a bit more). Poland, my origin country counts 10%. So one can ask a question, do the people in those countries differ from those in Germany or Austria or other with RI > 60%?

I am sure they don't. We all are pretty the same if it comes to health. So why is that?

Maybe that's because, the approach those countries took was significantly different, e.g. a higher / lower number of corona-tests, lack of lock-down at the beginning of the infection within the country, etc. One can argue also the other minor factors as overall pollution, obesity level, demography distribution, poverty levels, etc. In fact, all of them weren't as different especially when we look for a period of 4 weeks and compare countries within similar territories. The complete correlation analysis is still pending.

To understand more insights, let's assume that Germany and Austria to mention only two in Euro Zone (EU) calculating their data accurately. We should remember that many doctors and scientists expect that there are probably 10-20x more infected people who have severe or no symptoms at all. That would lead to the conclusion that TR within pandemic should be > 85-90%, which is in line with data from China. Once pandemic is over it should go up to 95-98%, meaning that most of the people will recover. As we see so many people dying every day, it does not mean that I am not thrilled by the death of them. I am, it is terrible for everyone, their families, and relatives, but I point out the fact that most infected come out of this virus reasonably well. We all are shocked by the deaths of all people, and especially fell so sorry for those < 30 or < 40 years old, one should note that the very similar happens with traditional flu every year. The distribution of flu deaths is available publicly and there are even young kids dying of it every year. We don't have a reasonable data yet to compare deaths for younger generation from COVID and from flu.

When we look for some other data telling about fatality based on age, it seems that people >70 years old are the most exposed. The additional diseases, which are almost widespread within the older generation, significantly increase the lethal shot of the COVID-19.

As we all afraid of the virus, we also observe a lot of terrible situations with the economy — lots of people have to shut their businesses or are affected by work closer. That's in line with what economists telling us due to prolonged lockdown will end up with the most significant deflation and recession. The only remedy is to open economies and countries as soon as people and governments are confident that RI is high enough. At the same time, those at most risk are adequately secured, treated, and kept healthy. The flattering of the curve of new cases is only prolonging that effect and the time when the societies will be recovered or immune. The potential vaccine for COVID-19 should help, although if RI > 80-90%, it looks that we don't need to inject it to everyone. And the time for vaccine availability is still unclear, most probably more than 6-12 months from now. Only those on the risk may have it in fact. Till those 6-12 months, we could have 80% of societies healed - in fact only for those who get it - and get the RI > 90%. The flattening also is seen as a potential new outbreak during autumn and winter this year - before vaccine availability - which could span another lockdown and stoppage of the economy. Are we ready for it? Really? If we look without emotions the very similar situation is with flu, as many people are not taking the flu vaccine and are still fine every year. That is also valid for myself, as my parents are >70 years old, and obviously I want them to be healthy and live as long as possible.

So that observations lead to the only right conclusion that maybe we should apply a quasi-lockdown to keep our economies running, and impose the regulation that only people older >70 years old should be in full lockdown. Maybe in some countries, it should be >60 years old; or we should make it only in some high-risk areas where most people are the older ones. In the Middle East region, the demography profile is that almost 50-60% of people are below 35 years old, and only 5% are > 70 years old, which is another indicator supporting such a quasi-lockdown, and keeping economy running.

Further, we can observe the data from Sweden, a country without lockdown at all - their death rate is not higher than in the UK* for the same amount of people checked. While in the UK, they have a full lockdown.

Finally, those are my observations based on publicly available data. Each one of you should always get his / her point of view. The data is correct, so the other factors may bias the decisions of the governments for full lock-down, which we don't know, or aren't aware of. When it comes to the death of the people, we should always be cautious and take more steps than usual. Life is paramount, for each and every one of us. Keep safe, please!

*I couldn't find data of the Total Recovered for the UK on worldometers.info. 

TC=Total Cases; TD=Total Deaths; TR=Total Recovered; RI=Recovery Index; DI=Death Index

Country  TC  TD  TR  RI  DI

China  82692  4632  77994  94%  6%    

S. Korea  10635  230  7829  74%  2%  546,463  10,659

Iceland  1754  9  1224  70%  1%  39,536  115,859

Iran  79494  4958  54064  68%  6%  319,879  3,808

Austria  14595  431  9704  66%  3%  169,272  18,795

Iraq  1482  81  906  61%  5%  51,737  1,286

Germany  141397  4352  83114  59%  3%  1728357  20,629

Australia  6533  65  3821  58%  1%  391,53  15,354

Malaysia  5251  86  2967  57%  2%  96,695  2,988

Peru  13489  300  6541  48%  2%  127,513  3,867

Denmark  7073  336  3389  48%  5%  87,024  15,024

Brazil  33682  2141  14026  42%  6%  62,985  296

Spain  190839  20002  74797  39%  10%  930,23  19,896

Chile  9252  116  3621  39%  1%  103,873  5,434

Mexico  6297  486  2125  34%  8%  40,091  311

Canada  31927  1310  10543  33%  4%  507,701  13,452

South Africa  2783  50  903  32%  2%  100,827  1,7

Pakistan  7025  135  1765  25%  2%  84,704  383

Italy  172434  22745  42727  25%  13%  1244108  20,577

Israel  12982  151  3126  24%  1%  187,25  21,634

Belgium  36138  5163  7961  22%  14%  139,387  12,027

UAE  6302  37  1188  19%  1%  767  77,55

Romania  8067  411  1508  19%  5%  85,805  4,46

Czechia  6549  173  1174  18%  3%  154,307  14,409

Saudi Arabia  7142  87  1049  15%  1%  150  4,309

India  14352  486  2041  14%  3%  335,123  243

Turkey  78546  1769  8631  11%  2%  558,413  6,621

Poland  8379  332  866  10%  4%  179,654  4,747

Japan  9787  190  935  10%  2%  100,703  796

Sweden  13216  1400  550  4%  11%  74600  7387

France  147969  18681  3442  2%  13%  463,662  7,103

USA  709735  3154  6051  1%  0%  3572257  10,792

Russia  32008  273  259  1%  1%  1718019  11,773

Switzerland  27078  1327  164  1%  5%  2064  23,849

Finland  3489  82  17  0%  2%  52,5  9,475