Data In Times Of Crisis

We are facing an unprecedented global crisis, which is having a massive impact on the travel and tourism industry; and navigating uncharted waters on what will come next.

Due to the extraordinary nature of this crisis, it is hard to predict how and when the industry will recover. However, what I do know after having spoken to many destinations, travel companies and public organisations, is that together we will get through this critical period; and that data can make a difference in how we do it.

Either when discussing with destinations how to move from promotion to management bodies, or discussing sustainability goals and “overtourism”, or when brainstorming on how to overcome a crisis, I always use the same approach: Learn, Act & Measure. This is the process that Machine Learning algorithms use to learn from big data, and improve through experience, which is exactly what we need right now.

The Now (Learning and a bit of Acting)

There are two key components in the “Now”. First and foremost, all of us should be analysing. This is extremely important since by analysing data we will be able to identify the so called “Inflection point”. That moment where we start seeing an upward trend that will mean tourism is reactivating and proactive recovery plans can be put in motion.

It is true that data can be fragmented, but many companies are sharing this data which can be analysed all together and help destinations to understand where they are standing.

Besides studying government measures and Covid-19 trends, some of the key indications that I recommend are as follows:

-       China’s signs of recovery. Even it might not be the same in Europe, analysing their pattern can help to understand the key indications and their effect. You can see this evolution in ADARA’s trend tracker.

-       Search (Intend) and Bookings (both from a past point of view to see the drop’s evolution as well as the future, to identify a shift to a growing trend). The weekly progression of the ratio of searches to bookings will play also a key part. ADARA is analysing it per country, region and city.

-       Google search trends as well as the analysis from searches (1st click) to 2nd click in meta searchers (such as Skyscanner), will show the progress of the consideration phase.

-       Mabrian’s Security Perception Index (as well as social listening sentiment analysis in the various social networks such as Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, etc.) can contribute to a more “emotional” analysis, which can be linked to the objective data.

-       For certain destinations who depend on airline capacity, examining the reactivation of routes will be key for their recovery. Both Mabrian, Amadeus, and ForwardKeys can provide that data. For accommodation data, some interesting sources are TravelGateX , STR, OTAs and vacation rentals analytics tools (such as Transparent).

-       The reactivation of international credit card spend. Credit card companies such as Mastercard can provide the overall analysis as well as per type of service (which will help identify market expenditure behaviour). 

-       Increased levels of CO2 and water/electricity consumption in tourist areas. Specialised consultancy firm TDDS is looking at a different approach to complement the above mentioned indicators. Mobility data (Telecommunications companies such as Orange or Telefónica) can be complementary here as well.

-       First party data, in case the organisation has a proper data strategy.

In terms of communication, everyone I have spoken to agrees that this is the time to be reactive (organic content) and act in two initial communication phases:

1) Acknowledgment of the situation and showing support. All messages from UNWTO, Visit Britain (sharing the message of ““we can’t wait to welcome you again soon”), Barcelona (“Barcelona Visits You”) Tel Aviv (“Good things come to those who wait”), Estonia (“Visit Estonia later, #stayhome”), etc. or the Madrid campaign focus on locals (“Together we have never lost”) are all related to the concept: “Stay at home, travel tomorrow”.

2) "Keeping the dream alive". As people are confined at home, destinations can help make it easier with videos / content that help them to bear with the situation. Portugal’s video “Can't Skip Hope” is a great example; or the Discover Puerto Rico team, who are actually creating virtual content as a "weekend getaway" (including salsa dancing and cooking lessons). Additionally, destinations who have Virtual Reality content or games, this is the right moment to share them with the travellers.

In both phase 1 and 2, the interaction recommended between tourism organisations and travellers is being more reactive (and organic), being highly focused on social media (Facebook, Instagram, Youtube). If paid content is done, this needs to be very carefully planned and with small budgets.

After the “Inflection Point” (Learning, Acting and Measuring)

We need to bear in mind that the Inflection point will not happen to all the origin markets at the same time. This is why the continued analysis of the situation is important to support the launch of the recovery plans. Once we reached the inflection point in a specific origin market, it is the time to launch the recovery media plans and proactively engage with travellers. The next phases are as follows:

3) Recovering trust and start raising awareness. It will be essential to tackle the trust issues that travellers will have regarding safety and travelling. This is why recovering trust needs to be a part of the messaging in this phase. Additionally, it will be the time to start a soft launch of an awareness campaign (to position the destination as Top of Mind). In this sense, and given the exceptional nature of the situation, it will require analysing the top usual origin markets to a destination, as well as new potential markets that might also be candidates for this recovery phase. Regarding the target audiences, there are several options to take into consideration:

• Actively searching travellers who may want to staycation due to it being the only option available at the time, or for security reasons. This might be a great opportunity for destinations to promote rural tourism.
• Actively searching travellers who may want to travel abroad (as a rebound effect)
• Travellers who in January / February were already looking for the destination but could not book due to the crisis.
• Travellers looking for a trip in the short term/Summer versus Autumn & Winter

4) "Open for Business" Come and Visit us! Once the confidence has been re-established, and searches and bookings continue to increase, it will be the time to launch a stronger awareness and consideration campaigns in all the main origin markets. It is important here to focus both on awareness as well as conversion so as to move the intender into a booker.

In this phase, it is crucial to measure the results. Even if funds are available to promote tourism again, they will be limited, therefore measuring the impact of those funds to identify which markets, channels and themes are driving the most intenders and bookings will help to optimise campaigns and budgets. Additionally, applying these findings into the Learning process will create a virtuous circle and an intelligence system that will allow destinations to manage the crisis from a position of strength.

All in all, data can play a key role in the recovery of this crisis if used through all the process (Learn, Act & Measure); as well as our joint efforts in sharing and analysing data from different sources. Together we can make a difference.