Data Sense 101: Evolution and Trajectory

Where we come from and where we are heading are more important than where we are. In most cases, at least. This isn’t a philosophical statement; it’s about making sense of data and communicating it effectively.

Nothing is static. Even if something seems unchanged, its importance or impact will likely change because other things around it do. The fact that you have ten open tasks has little meaning by itself. If you had twenty tasks a week ago and twelve yesterday, you are in a completely different position than if you had one task to handle a week ago and yesterday you had three.

We use data to decide what to do next. When communicating it, we do so in the context of some predefined mission — a target. We can rarely use a single data point to make sense of where we are. We must understand and communicate how the aspect we are analyzing has evolved and what its trajectory is.

To understand what we need to do next, we must know where we are on the curve. If things improve and do so at a rate that enables us to achieve our target, we can stay on course. If the aspect we analyze drifts away from the target or doesn’t converge fast enough, we have to take action and change the trend.

All this might sound trivial mathematically, but it is often ignored when we use data as part of our conversation. It is not uncommon to share a status report with many bits of data without showing how each aspect has evolved and what its trajectory is. Sometimes, the target is not even explicitly mentioned. Such reports don’t drive action, or they drive the wrong action.

When we take action, we don’t just change the status — we decide on a direction. To make the right decision, we must understand our current direction and have a destination in mind.