Data Dive: The changing state of Obamacare

reuters.com: One of the first things that Donald Trump has promised to do as president is repeal and replace Obamacare. The speculation is starting to flow as to just how that would happen.

Here's the big problem: We are in the middle of open enrollment for 2017 policies. This affects:

• The 13 million Americans who will sign up for insurance policies through statewide exchanges.
• The more than 65 million on Medicaid who may be affected by rollback of Medicare coverage.
• The 11.5 percent of the population the census identified as still uninsured in 2016 who consider getting a policy for next year.

People who sign up before Dec. 15 will get a contract for coverage that starts Jan. 1, 2017, and lasts for the entire calendar year. The enrollment period officially ends on Jan. 31, 2017, which is 11 days after Trump takes office.

That 2017 year of coverage will be hard to unravel, even if Congress tries to defund the $56 billion in subsidies that offset costs for millions of Americans. 

"People should pretend like nothing happened, get insurance, and then we'll see what develops for 2018," says Nate Purpura, vice president of eHealth.com, a national insurance marketplace for plans both on the statewide exchanges and private insurance.

Since the first open enrollment period, the number of enrollees fell short of expectations by nearly half. Government estimates had pegged enrollment in the exchanges to be at 21 million to 25 million by now, but it was only at 12.7 million for 2016, according to eHealth.

And the costs to both the government and policyholders exceeded expectations. The 10-year costs were projected to be $950 billion in 2010, but actual costs may be $1.27 trillion or more.

And premium costs have gone up from an average of $197 for individual plans in 2013 to $321 in 2016, with even more cost increases on tap for 2017.

What happens next may be a mix of things, said John Desser, eHealth's vice president of government affairs. Some parts of the law may be easier to pull back than others, and some may be left alone intentionally. Provisions likely to stick around include: 1) the option to cover children up to age 26; and 2) restrictions against lifetime limits on coverage. He also thinks there will be a compromise among Republicans that retains the requirement for insurance plans to cover pre-existing conditions if there is no gap in coverage.

As a licensed agent with HealthMarkets, I (Robert Morgen) am sharing this article with my LinkedIn community. I serve Nevada, California, Arizona, Texas, & South Carolina as a Health Benefits Adviser.