Data, Defence & Disruption (or: How did it get to be February already?)

With the repeated bad news stories that have started 2025, one could believe only in a somewhat stark picture of a world where Defence, strategic, economic and social landscapes are rapidly evolving, continuation of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, increases in spending on military technology (as well as rise in fortunes, political changes and the disruptive events unfolding across the world, with fires, aircraft crashes and political winds a’blowin’. As always an avid reader of material, as well as liking to listen to webinars - last week was a big week, especially with the release of The Military Balance 2025 (an interesting source of data) to provide new figures to populate slide decks...

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Dr. Bastian Giegerich offered some compelling remarks at the launch?and? it was easy to appreciate the rich context he provides for understanding the evolving dynamics of global Defence and the Defence marketplace. Particularly resonant was his emphasis on the interconnected security challenges across Europe and the Asia-Pacific, as well as the rate of expenditure on a global level with Australia modestly placed at 11th. These observations painted a strategic backdrop for considering the resilience and adaptability of defence policies and technologies, especially pertinent in light of recent shortcomings within initiatives like the Australian Strategic Capabilities Accelerator and the somewhat tepid energy surrounding AUKUS Pillar 2 capabilities.

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Dr. Giegerich discussed the significant rise in global military expenditure and the diffusion of technological innovations, suggesting a complex security environment where traditional and non-traditional threats intertwine. This environment, where rapid technological changes and geopolitical shifts occur, underscores the necessity for an antifragile approach within the Australian Defence Force and Industry—where systems not only resist shocks but also adapt and thrive because of them.

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This flags the need for wider understanding of? concept of Antifragility, as espoused by Nassim Nicholas Taleb:? that certain systems not only endure chaos but thrive on it, improving their resilience through interactions with elements of disorder and uncertainty. The war in Ukraine, inadvertently, serves as a petri dish for such theories. The rapid innovation cycles in Ukraine's defence strategies, characterized by the development of a diverse array of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and their deployment, underscore a move from fragility to antifragility—leveraging the chaos of war to foster rapid technological and strategic adaptation.

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Building upon the notions of antifragility and its cousin concept, eustress—the beneficial stress that promotes growth and adaptation—the dynamics currently at play within Australian defence circles offer a ripe ground for strategic evolution, with (hopefully) new mechanisms to deliver the critical outcomes .

Initiatives like the Australian Strategic Capabilities Accelerator for whom the bells of change rang this week. ASCA, akin to its predecessor the Defence Innovation Hub, has not quite hit the mark in propelling Australia's defence industry forward?? -the anticipated (need?) surge in innovation and strategic agility has, thus far, manifested as more of a gentle ripple than the needed wave of transformation.? The change in ASCA’s remit and dispensing with the DIH, though regrettable in terms of the dashed hopes of a number of SMES, could potentially serve as catalysts for significant systemic reform and yielding well-informed benefit.

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Indeed, the narrative spun around the escalating conflicts, such as those in Ukraine, showcases a world where disruptions are not mere hindrances but potential catalysts for growth. The Ukrainian response, with its swift adaptation and innovation in UAV technologies, exemplifies how one might harness chaos beneficially. It also provokes thoughts regarding the nature of disruptions, and Risks – noting in the business world we frequently plan for Geoclimactic, political and accidental (no one hit a bridge or block the Suez Canal for a bit…) but the malicious actor who seeks to sow unrest – the need and ability to out think, out design, out man and out gun those who actively to seek to disrupt us (or: exploit events to their own advantage).

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As was so aptly puts forth, the fragility of the global security environment places a premium on accurate and impartial defence information. For Australia, this means not only keeping abreast of international military dynamics but also proactively participating in the creation and dissemination of innovative defence solutions. By embedding the principles of antifragility and eustress into the strategic core, Australian defence policy can ensure that it not only survives future shocks but also leverages them to foster a more robust and dynamic defence capability.

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In terms of progress and some strategic options:

?Prioritisation of Learning Over Perfection: Encourage a cultural shift within defence procurement and innovation bodies to prioritize learning and flexibility over perfection and risk avoidance. This could involve setting aside specific budgets for high-risk, high-reward projects. (ASDEFCON, DES) – the opportunities inherent in the Digital Modelling advocated in the DES.? The idea of the minimum viable capability that can be easily (for a given value of…) uplifted in the face of a threat has merit – providing we can identify the desired Capability and energise in an effective timeline

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Partnerships with the Private Sector and Academia: Strengthen collaborations with private sector tech firms and academic institutions known for cutting-edge research and innovation. These partnerships can bring fresh perspectives and agility into defence capability development.? This is the staff answer and should not be a new ANNOUNCEMENT!!.? Much has been said about the need to do so but less imperative to actively progress seems a little lacking.

?Public Transparency and Engagement: Maintain public engagement and transparency about the goals and progress of defence projects to build and maintain trust, ensuring public support for experimental and innovative initiatives.? The ability to share information with trusted members of industry so we can be making ground on next generation capability to change the needle from “Minimum” to something more on the “Ready”? scale.

?Embracing Eustress and Antifragility: Dr. Giegerich’s observations regarding the enhanced defence investments driven by the tumult in Ukraine serve as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global security environments. Here, the principles of antifragility could inspire a robust reimagining of defence strategies. Instead of merely enduring the pressures of geopolitical upheavals, there is a profound opportunity to harness these forces, allowing the Australian Defence sector to emerge not merely unscathed but enhanced.

?Strategic Application in Modern Conflicts: Reflecting on the accelerated innovation seen in Ukraine’s use of UAVs, there's a clear indication that rapid cycles of innovation and adaptation can provide significant tactical advantages. Australia can learn from this by fostering a defence ecosystem that prioritizes speed and flexibility in technology development and deployment, mirroring the Silicon Valley-like innovation pace that has begun to characterize parts of the global defence industry.? This is where I hope to achieve contributions through my own research (and shameless plug here - I am looking for another 15 businesses, particularly on the S end of the SME equation to interview regarding your experiences as part of Defence Industry Supply chains - please contact me )

?The opportunity of the week is for the revised? ASCA to be one that is designed to thrive in times of disruption,? with an imperative for decision-makers to cultivate a defence industry ecosystem that is transcends the resilient and adaptive to one where we look to seize the day.

14th February 2025